俄烏戰爭——高角度審視無形關鍵元素：汲取過去教訓｜認清俄國弱點｜保持進迫動力

影片描述：兩年多的俄軍全面入侵烏克蘭戰爭之中，俄羅斯和烏克蘭的戰情互有起伏。我相信這場戰爭將會維持多好幾年。近日烏軍另開戰線，突襲攻入俄國領土庫爾斯克州。烏軍這個新行動，令所有關心這場戰爭而支持烏克蘭的人，熱烈討論烏軍和西方陣營今後的方略是否應該行新方向。所以，於本集《TM說》，我會討論烏軍和西方陣營能夠從過往戰事之中所得到的教訓、應該作出甚麼改善和怎樣應對普京針對烏軍和西方陣營所發動的認知戰。（不少人想到軍事題材，就會聯想到各種硬件武器，但我覺得，這場俄烏戰爭，那一邊最終獲勝、結局會怎樣，更大程度上取決於一些無形的高層元素，例如係決心、意志、大戰略、認知理解等等，所以於本集節目我會從高角度討論這些關鍵元素。至於戰術和硬件武器方面，我應該會於下一集再討論烏俄戰爭時，因應當時的戰況再作分析。）

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本影片的部份參考資料清單，暫時會在留言區中列出。

本影片部份參考資料：

Undermining Ukraine: How Russia widened its global information war in 2023, the Digital Forensic Research Lab, 29 Feb. 2024: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/undermining-ukraine-how-russia-widened-its-global-information-war-in-2023/

The Coming Russian Escalation With the West, George Beebe, TIME, 1 Jul. 2024: https://time.com/6994227/russia-us-ukraine-crisis/

What if Russia wins the war in Ukraine?, Georg Häsler & Cian Jochem, NZZ, 25 Mar. 2024: https://www.nzz.ch/english/what-if-russia-wins-the-war-in-ukraine-ld.1823308

Help Ukraine win—or risk kicking off a US losing streak, Tod D. Wolters and Ann Marie Dailey, Atlantic Council, 15 Mar. 2024: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/help-ukraine-win-or-risk-kicking-off-a-us-losing-streak/

Send Ukraine the Air Assets It Needs — Before It’s Too Late, Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Kenneth R. Israel, The Messenger, 23 Jan. 2024: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/send-ukraine-the-air-assets-it-needs-before-it-s-too-late/ar-BB1h7Lph

As Europe Piles Sanctions on Russia, Some Sacred Cows Are Spared, Matina Stevis-Gridneff, The New York Times, 18 Oct. 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/18/world/europe/eu-sanctions-russia-ukraine.html

Minister: Ukraine to produce more weapons worth $10 billion if financed, Kateryna Hodunova, The Kyiv Independent, 6 May 2024: https://kyivindependent.com/minister-ukraine-to-produce-more-weapons-worth-10-billion-if-financed/

US grows doubtful Ukraine counteroffensive can quickly succeed, Felicia Schwartz, Financial Times, 20 Aug. 2023: https://www.ft.com/content/4d40482a-f8c4-42b8-af60-2374f93070ca

Why Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed: WP analysis in 7 minutes, Euromaidan press staff, Euromaidan Press, 12 Jul. 2023: https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/07/why-ukraines-counteroffensive-failed-wp-analysis-in-7-minutes/

Exclusive | Imperialist Putin won’t negotiate, war won’t end this year: Ex-Ukraine minister Gerashchenko, Sukanya Saha, Hindustan TImes, 19 Aug. 2024: https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/exclusiveimperialist-putin-won-t-negotiate-war-won-t-end-this-year-ukraine-minister-gerashchenko-101724078451943.html

Ukraine makes gains, but the war won’t stop, The Japan Times, 23 Aug. 2024: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/editorials/2024/08/23/ukraine-makes-gains/

Biden’s Ukraine Strategy Is Missing in Action, Jack Detsch & Amy Mackinnon, Foreign Policy Magazine, 21 Aug. 2024: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/21/biden-ukraine-war-strategy-congress-military-aid/

The Defense Industrial Implications of Putin’s Appointment of Andrey Belousov as Minister of Defense, Nicholas Velazquez, Maeve Sockwell, & Cynthia Cook, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 May 2024: https://www.csis.org/analysis/defense-industrial-implications-putins-appointment-andrey-belousov-minister-defense

Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out, The Economist, 16 Jul. 2024: https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/07/16/russias-vast-stocks-of-soviet-era-weaponry-are-running-out

New Kh-101 missile used to strike Kyiv children’s hospital, Conflict Armament Research, Aug. 2024: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/edb4ed8bf3604c4ca47707ed1fe3a56c

Full text of Putin’s mobilization decree — translated, Zoya Sheftalovich, Politico, 21 Sep. 2022: https://www.politico.eu/article/text-vladimir-putin-mobilization-decree-war-ukraine-russia/

Freedom must always prevail when challenged – speech by the President of Ukraine at the National Defense University of the United States, The Presidential Office of Ukraine, 11 Dec. 2023: https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/svoboda-povinna-peremagati-zavzhdi-koli-htos-kidaye-yij-vikl-87673

На территориях Белгородской, Брянской и Курской областей введен правовой режим КТО, АНТИТЕРРОРИСТИЧЕСКИЙ КОМИТЕТ, 9 Aug. 2024: http://nac.gov.ru/kontrterroristicheskie-operacii/na-territoriyah-belgorodskoy-bryanskoy-i-kurskoy.html

https://t.me/Alekhin_Telega/11184

PUTIN’S OFFSET - THE KREMLIN’S GEOPOLITICAL ADAPTATIONS SINCE 2014, Nataliya Bugayova, Institute for the Study of War, Sep. 2020: https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Putin%27s%20Offset%20The%20Kremlin%27s%20Geopolitical%20Adaptations%20Since%202014.pdf

Russia moves to establish military base in Belarus, Deutsche Welle, 19 Sep. 2015: https://www.dw.com/en/putin-moves-to-establish-russian-military-base-in-belarus/a-18724911

Speech by Minister of Defense Shoigu (video), RIA, 21 Sep. 2022: https://ria.ru/20220921/shoygu-1818321328.html

https://x.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1576410989104627712

https://x.com/adagamov/status/1576531804324270080

Timeline: What Led to the Standoff Between Russia and Prigozhin, Gaya Gupta, The New York Times, 24 Jun. 2023: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/24/world/europe/russia-military-prigozhin-wagner-timeline.html

Address by the President of the Russian Federation, on the website of the Russian Presidential Executive Office, 21 Sep. 2022: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390

Ukraine’s Sustained Counteroffensive: Denying Russia’s Prolongation of the War, Nataliya Bugayova, Institute for the Study of War, 24 Jul. 2023: https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Ukraine%E2%80%99s%20Sustained%20Counteroffensive%20PDF.pdf

Russia’s jamming of US-provided rocket systems complicates Ukraine’s war effort, Alex Marquardt, Natasha Bertrand & Zachary Cohe, CNN, 6 May 2023: https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html

Another US precision-guided weapon falls prey to Russian electronic warfare, US says, Sam Skove, Defense One, 28 Apr. 2024: https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/04/another-us-precision-guided-weapon-falls-prey-russian-electronic-warfare-us-says/396141/

Russia redeploying helicopters from Berdiansk to Taganrog after ATACMS strike - Air Force's comment, Daris Dmytriieva, RBC-Ukraine, 2 Nov. 2023: https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-redeploying-helicopters-from-berdiansk-1698924508.html

Russia Moving Military Assets Near Civilians to Avoid Ukraine Strikes: Intel, Joe Saballa, The Defense Post, 25 Jun. 2024: https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/06/25/russia-assets-civilians-strikes/

Central Asia: A Lucrative Back Door to Russia, Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu, CEPA, 2 Jan. 2024: https://cepa.org/article/central-asia-a-lucrative-back-door-to-russia/

Disabling the Enablers of Sanctions Circumvention, Justyna Gudzowska, Eliza Lockhart & Tom Keatinge, RUSI, 7 May 2024: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/policy-briefs/disabling-enablers-sanctions-circumvention

WAR MACHINE: The Networks Supplying & Sustaining the Russian Precision Machine Tool Arsenal, Al Maggard, C4ADS, 18 Jun 2024: https://c4ads.org/reports/war-machine/

Exclusive: Iran to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia soon, intel sources say, Anthony Deutsch, Tom Balmforth & Jonathan Landay, Reuters, 10 Aug. 2024: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/iran-deliver-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-russia-soon-intel-sources-say-2024-08-09/

North Korea Sent Russia Millions of Artillery Shells, South Korea Says, Soo-Hyang Choi, TIME, 14 June 2024: https://time.com/6988568/north-korea-russia-artillery-shell-south-korea-defense-minister/

Assessing Russia’s Shadow Fleet: Initial Build-Up, Links to the Global Shadow Fleet, and Future Prospects, Kyiv School of Economics, 10 Jun. 2024: https://kse.ua/about-the-school/news/assessing-russia-s-shadow-fleet-initial-build-up-links-to-the-global-shadow-fleet-and-future-prospects/

Illuminating Russia’s Shadow Fleet, Windward: https://windward.ai/knowledge-base/illuminating-russias-shadow-fleet/

The West Is Still Oblivious to Russia’s Information War, Ian Garner, Foreign Policy Magazine, 9 Mar. 2024: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/09/russia-putin-disinformation-propaganda-hybrid-war/

US Doesn't Support Ukraine Using American Weapons in Russia: Ambassador, Aila Slisco, Newsweek, 3 May 2023: https://www.newsweek.com/us-doesnt-support-ukraine-using-american-weapons-russia-ambassador-1897256

U.S. restrictions put key Russian air bases out of firing range, officials say,  Siobhán O'Grady, Robyn Dixon, Serhiy Morgunov & Kostiantyn Khudov, The Washington Post, 21 Jun. 2024: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/21/ukraine-firing-range-us-weapons-russia/

The West hasn’t gone after Russia’s nuclear energy. Here’s why, Clare Sebastian, CNN, 7 Mar. 2023: https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/06/energy/russia-nuclear-industry-no-sanctions/index.html

Russia’s Rosatom Fuels Putin’s War Machine, Lloyd Doggett, Foreign Policy Magazine, 9 Apr. 2024: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/09/russia-rosatom-nuclear-uranium-sanctions-war-putin-ukraine/

Interview to Tucker Carlson, on the website of the Russian Presidential Executive Office, 9 Feb. 2024: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73411

https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1764007636197101716

Belarus Warning Update: The Kremlin is Planning an October Multinational Command Staff Exercise in Belarus, George Barros, Institute for the Study of War, 29 Sep. 2020: https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/09/belarus-warning-update-kremlin-is.html

Более 1000 военнослужащих общевойсковой армии ЗВО участвуют в контрольной проверке в 5 регионах дислокации, on the website of Министерство обороны Российской Федерации, 4 Oct. 2020: https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12317582@egNews

The Russian Drone Plant That Could Shape the War in Ukraine, Benoit Faucon, Nicholas Bariyo & Matthew Luxmoore, The Wall Street Journal, 28 May 2024: https://www.wsj.com/world/the-russian-drone-plant-that-could-shape-the-war-in-ukraine-7abd5616

Inside the Russian effort to build 6,000 attack drones with Iran’s help, Dalton Bennett & Mary Ilyushina, The Washington Post, 17 Aug. 2023: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2023/08/17/russia-iran-drone-shahed-alabuga/

Putin asks Iran to avoid civilian casualties in Israel response, sources say, Parisa Hafezi, Laila Bassam & Timour Azhari, Reuters, 6 Aug. 2024: https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-asks-iran-avoid-civilian-casualties-israel-response-sources-say-2024-08-06/

Exclusive: Russia Warns Iran Against Targeting Israel, IranWire, 6 Aug. 2024: https://iranwire.com/en/news/132578-exclusive-russia-warns-iran-against-targeting-israel/#google_vignette

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Riley Bailey, Davit Gasparyan, & Frederick W. Kagan, ISW, 3 Aug. 2024: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-3-2024

China’s support for Russia has been hindering Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Markus Garlauskas, Joseph Webster, and Emma C. Verges, Atlantic Council, 15 Nov. 2023: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/chinas-support-for-russia-has-been-hindering-ukraines-counteroffensive/

Chinese Machine Tools Serve as Russia’s Safety Net, Pavel Luzin, The Jamestown Foundation, 22 Jan, 2024: https://jamestown.org/program/chinese-machine-tools-serve-as-russias-safety-net/

Russia Warns Of Response To Armenia’s Tilt To West, RFE/RL, 4 Mar. 2024: https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32847225.html

Зачем российские политики ищут в Казахстане «русофобию» и призывают к «денацификации»?, RFE/RL, 29 Mar. 2022: https://rus.azattyq.org/a/kazakhstan-russian-politicians-statements-denazification-russophobia/31776329.html

Armenia Should Use This Window of Opportunity to Leave Russia’s Orbit, Areg Kochinyan / Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, 21 May 2024: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/06/armenia-leaves-russian-orbit?lang=en

Armenia to leave Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation, Daniel Bellamy, euronews / AP, 12 Jun. 2024: https://www.euronews.com/2024/06/12/armenia-to-leave-russian-led-collective-security-treaty-organisation

Russia’s arms sales plummet as India, others seek new suppliers, Indo-Pacific Defense FORUM, 9 Apr. 2024: https://ipdefenseforum.com/2024/04/russias-arms-sales-plummet-as-india-others-seek-new-suppliers/

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, Karolina Hird &Frederick W. Kagan, Institute for the Stidy of War, 30 Jul. 2024: https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20July%2030%2C%202024%20PDF.pdf

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1620

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1621

No room for Russia to cut rates this year as inflation climbs, economy overheats, Alexander Marrow, Reuters, 2 Aug. 2024: https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/no-room-russia-cut-rates-this-year-inflation-climbs-economy-overheats-2024-08-02/

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1817974804169080986

Denying Russia’s Only Strategy for Success, Nataliya Bugayova and Frederick W. Kagan with Kateryna Stepanenko, Institute for the Study of War, 27 Mar. 2024: https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Denying%20Russia%27s%20Only%20Strategy%20for%20Success.pdf

World Economic Outlook (April 2024) - GDP, current prices, IMF: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/JPN/USA/GBR/NOR/IRN/NZL/MNE

How Prigozhin’s Rebellion Exposes Putin’s Weakening Grip, Arik Burakovsky, TIME, 30 Jun. 2023: https://time.com/6291676/prigozhins-rebellion-exposes-putins-weakening-grip/

Kremlin response to Kursk incursion shows how Vladimir Putin freezes in a crisis, Rpbyn Dixon, The New Zealand Herald / The Washington Post, 19 Aug. 2024: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/kremlin-response-to-kursk-incursion-shows-how-vladimir-putin-freezes-in-a-crisis/Y3YCNE6MCJHKTH4F5DJ2G4SSEM/

Russia’s ethnic minorities disproportionately die in the war in Ukraine, PBS News Hour, PBS, 11 Dec. 2023: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/russias-ethnic-minorities-disproportionately-conscripted-to-fight-the-war-in-ukraine

Protests in Russia Put Spotlight on Wartime Ethnic Grievances, Anatoly Kurmanaev, The New York Times, 18 Jan. 2024:https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/18/world/europe/protests-russia-bashkortostan.html

Путин заявил о важности сохранения многонационального единства России, Interfax, 2 Mar. 2024: https://www.interfax.ru/russia/978315

Путин подчеркнул, что Россия - многонациональная и многоконфессиональная страна, TASS, 28 Mar. 2024: https://tass.ru/politika/20377823

Kremlin Fears Violence of Russian Troops Returning From War: Report, Newsweek, 20 Jul. 2024: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-kremlin-veterans-violence-1927948#:~:text=But%20the%20return%20of%20prisoners,injured%20at%20least%20100%20more

"Протез брямкал": участник СВО жестоко избит во Владивостоке, GTRK Vladivostok, 18 May 2024: https://vestiprim.ru/news/ptrnews/150341-uchastnik-svo-byl-zhestoko-izbit-vo-vladivostoke.html

https://t.me/dva_majors/26403

Подписан указ о выплате 400 тысяч рублей за заключение контракта о службе в зоне СВО，Interfax, 31 Jul. 2024: https://www.interfax.ru/russia/973313

"О единовременной денежной выплате военнослужащим, проходящим военную службу по контракту в Вооруженных Силах Российской Федерации", Указ Президента Российской Федерации № 644, 31 Jul. 2024: http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/document/0001202407310001

Lost Authority: US allies losing respect for Biden’s approach to escalation management, Joel Gehrke, Washington Examiner, 27 Aug. 2024: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/foreign-policy/3134936/lost-authority-us-allies-lose-respect-biden-approach-escalation-management/

NATO Is Helping Ukraine to Fight—but Not to Win, Amy Mackinnon, Foreign Policy, 12 Jul. 2024: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/12/nato-summit-ukraine-russia-military-war/

A Methodology for Degrading the Arms of the Russian Federation, Jack Watling & Gary Somerville, RUSI, 26 Jun. 2024: https://static.rusi.org/methodology-degrading-arms-russia-rusi-op-june-2024.pdf

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Courtesy:

Geopolitical Futures

ISW

Atlantic Council

TIME

NZZ

The Messenger

Tom Kean, Jr.

NYT

HindustanTimes

The Japan Times

Foreign Policy Magazine

CSIS

The Economist

Oryx

Conflict Armament Research

Politico

The Presidential Office of Ukraine

Deutsche Welle

RIA

X

Julia Davis

Rustem Adagamov

CNN

Defense One

RBC-Ukraine

The Defense Post

Center for European Policy Analysis

Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies

C4ADS

Reuters

Bloomberg

Kyiv School of Economics

Windward

The Washington Post

Newsweek Digital

David Sacks

The Wall Street Journal

IranWire

The Jamestown Foundation

Eurasia Daily Monitor

RFE/RL

Indo-Pacific Defense FORUM

IMF

The New Zealand Herlad

PBS

Interfax

TASS

ГТРК Владивосток

Washington Examiner

Grimmy

Mike Peters

YouTube

Tucker Carlson

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This video is produced for informational or/and educational purpose(s). I have tried with diligence to ascertain usage of any media in this video does not lead to any copyright infringement.

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