Chaos in Russia or Putin replacement: Zelenskiy's Kursk “adventure” exposes Putin's fragile regime

This year, among the spectacular events is the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region, coupled with a wave of powerful missile and drone attacks. In particular, military airfields, ammunition depots, oil refineries, fuel storage centres and even Moscow have been hit, writes Edward Lucas, a consultant specialising in European and transatlantic security, for The Times.
"They sank the only major ferry linking Crimea and a valuable Kilo-class attack submarine anchored in a supposedly well-defended Russian port. The rest of the targets were left smoldering: red lines, taboos and prejudices," he said.
At the same time, according to the expert, everything is no longer the same, because Ukraine has not only changed the situation with the Russian Federation, but also “confused the timidity and pessimism of its allies.”
Lucas believes that if Ukraine manages to stop Russian forces, it will be able to lure 3,000 Russian soldiers into a "cauldron" in the Kursk region.
"Once captured, they could become useful bargaining chips for the many other Ukrainian POWs in Russia. More than 130,000 have been evacuated from Kursk, spreading their tales of chaos and humiliation across Russia - and highlighting the gap between the Kremlin's lies machine and reality. Putin had to withdraw air defenses from Crimea to protect Moscow and other towns in the Russian hinterland," the consultant said.
In turn, the most alarming thing for the Kremlin, according to the expert, is that the leader of the private army mercenaries "Paladin" Georgy Zakrevsky criticized the war, calling Putin "the so-called president." He repeated the disagreement that was previously heard from another military leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose attempted coup also shook the Kremlin.
According to the expert, the Russian Federation has been characterized for decades by poor decision-making, as their regime is unable to respond to crisis situations.
"The key to success in Russian organizations is to hide bad news from the boss. No one dared to tell Putin on the eve of a full-scale invasion in 2022 that Ukraine would fight. You can bet that no one told him in full and in time how much the "Nazi puppet regime" in Kyiv is hurting Russia now," Lucas said.
He noted that the West is now talking about solidarity with Ukraine, but is trembling at the prospect of what could be a victory: perhaps chaos in Russia or the replacement of Putin with someone "worse."
"Zelensky's gambling should focus our minds. Whether we like it or not, our chips are on the table too," the analyst concluded.