The Wire - August 19, 2024

//The Wire//1900Z August 19, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNREST CONTINUES THROUGHOUT ENGLAND. KURSK OFFENSIVE CONTINUES. SMALL ARMS SKIRMISHES REPORTED AT TEXAS MILITARY BASE.//
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-International Events-
United Kingdom: Violent attacks continue as before. In Manchester, three people were stabbed Sunday night. One woman was killed in the attack, and two others wounded with life-threatening injuries. An unidentified male was arrested in conjunction with the attacks.
In Kent, a man (who has been identified as Ernestas Juska) fatally stabbed a woman Saturday night. Authorities have also charged the assailant with committing crimes (which are too graphic to describe) against the victim after her murder.
In Bristol, a man was stabbed in Victoria Park over the weekend, resulting in the arrest of two unidentified men.
Throughout England, authorities continue to prioritize the policing of speech crimes among the indigenous English population. So far, over 1,100 arrests have been made, most of which appear to involve alleged speech crimes. In response to this increase in detainees, the British Ministry of Justice has activated Operation EARLY DAWN, a plan to allow British police to detain captives in temporary holding cells for longer periods of time than normally allowed by law, until space in a prison is made available. This operation also authorizes cutting most currently incarcerated prisoners’ sentences by up to 50%, to free up space for those convicted of speech crimes. Local media reports that up to 5,500 convicts currently serving their sentences are expected to be released over the next month under this program.
Russia: The Kursk offensive continues to remain kinetic. Ukrainian forces have gained some ground over the past week, though the front line remains fluid. On the western axis of advance, Ukrainian forces took the town of Visnevka over the weekend. Ukrainian forces have also prioritized targeting the bridges over the Seym River, greatly impacting the Russian freedom of maneuver throughout the area.
-HomeFront-
Texas: Saturday morning, multiple small arms attacks were reported at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland. The first pre-dawn engagement took place at approximately 0215S via a drive-by shooting targeting the Entry Control Point (ECP) at the Chapman Training Annex. A few hours later, at approximately 0430S another vehicle approached the same gate, engaging security personnel with small arms fire. During the second skirmish USAF Security Forces reacted to contact, engaging with small arms, before the attackers broke contact and egressed from the area. No arrests have been made regarding either engagement. No casualties were reported on either side.
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Analyst Comments: Many details regarding the JBSA-Lackland attack remain unknown. It is not clear as to if two separate vehicles were involved, or how many militants were in each of the vehicles. It’s also not clear as to if this is a reflection of routine crime resulting in protracted small arms engagements with security forces, or if this was a higher-level terrorist attack. Of note, following this first shooting the security posture of the installation was raised, and additional Security Forces deployed to the installation ECPs. This did not deter the second, more protracted assault indicating that if this was a terror incident (and not a local gang shooting), it probably wasn’t an instance of Recon by Fire, but rather a more deliberate assault. Of note, the Chapman Annex gate is located across the street from an Elementary School.
In Ukraine, though somewhat obvious to most parties at this juncture, the American involvement in the Kursk Offensive is palpable. Ukrainian forces, after years of warfare, suddenly did not become experts in combined arms and maneuver warfare without substantial help, nor did Ukrainian forces suddenly become experts in the exact style of warfare that the US Special Forces community is known for excelling at. Consequently, Putin is likely to lay blame on the United States for the success of this escapade, rightly or wrongly. In this specific instance, it’s not clear as to what factors have contributed to Ukraine’s success thus far; maybe Ukraine has chosen to commit their most-experienced troops for this offensive, at the risk of the hammer dropping later on as gains cannot be exploited (in true Kursk fashion). Maybe Russian forces in the region were indeed unprepared to the point of allowing surprising gains on the part of Ukraine. Either way, as both sides trade propaganda on the event, what’s far more likely is that Russia was caught napping, and Ukraine (or the American advisors) were successful in a tactically-sound mission actually coming to fruition. Right now, Ukraine is probably trying to “bite-and-hold” some portion of Russian terrain for as long as possible, so as to have a better bargaining position when peace talks inevitably come about. Russia, while still in the phase of recovering from the embarrassment of this operation, probably will seek to repeat the history of the region; waiting until Ukrainian gains can’t be held, then steamrolling south in some sort of envelopment operation. Though the future remains largely speculative, both sides are gambling with very high stakes, and placing bets that are far from surefire wins. Big gambles often lead to big losses. If either side wins big (and thus the other side loses big), the events of the next few weeks could mark a return to maneuver warfare and a more mobile front line, as either party cashes out their fate.
Analyst: S2A1
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