Ukraine prepares for “bargaining” with Trump by seizing Kursk region

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Ukraine is preparing to "bargain" with potential US President Donald Trump by seizing Russian lands, the Financial Times reports .

"Russia brought war to others, and now it is returning home," with these words President Volodymyr Zelensky broke the silence for the first time and indirectly confirmed the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Russian Kursk region.

The Ukrainian president named only one goal of his army's daring offensive: to create a buffer zone in the border region, which the Russians used to strike at the Sumy region.

The ambiguity about the strategic objectives of the first invasion of Russian territory since World War II makes sense: it keeps the enemy guessing.

"Uncertainty is the best way to avoid being cornered if things don't go as planned," says Nikolai Beleskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, part of Ukraine's Department of Military Policy.

Defense analysts, Ukrainian soldiers and even dictator Vladimir Putin have offered their own explanations for the operation: withdraw Russian troops from the front, where Ukrainian troops are slowly losing ground; restore faith in Ukraine's offensive capability; use Russian territory as a lever of influence in any negotiations with Moscow.

Invading Kursk as a "bargaining chip" in future negotiations is Ukraine's most compelling strategic goal. Putin has voiced it. But it is also the most dangerous.

Kiev knows it will be under pressure to negotiate an end to the war, especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House after the presidential election in November. Diplomatically, Ukraine has tried to step up, pushing its own peace formula and promising an international peace conference with an invitation to Russia by November 5.

Trump has boasted that he will bring peace to Ukraine overnight. No one knows how. But several of his former officials and advisers have suggested that a “Trump peace” could include territorial concessions in exchange for significant Western security guarantees.

Kyiv and many of its European allies are concerned that the Trump administration is forcing Ukraine into an unfair and unstable peace under the threat of cutting off U.S. arms supplies.

Most Western capitals say they want Kyiv to have the strongest bargaining position.

But if Kyiv wants to trade the land it seized from Russia, it must hold on to it - and the cost could be too high. Ukraine's invasion would need to be supported by a complex logistical operation, as well as troop rotations and reserves that were lacking in the east.

Ukrainian military officials and Western analysts worry that moving limited resources to Kursk will make it harder for Ukraine to hold its strategically important positions in Donetsk.