Kursk incursion undermines Putin’s authority, strengthens Ukraine’s position

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The Kursk incursion undermines Russian ruler Vladimir Putin’s authority and could strengthen Ukraine’s position, Bloomberg reports.

The incursion of up to 1,000 Ukrainian troops into Russia’s Kursk region, now in its third day, has caught the Russian military off guard.

It is the first instance of a foreign army penetrating Russian territory since World War II. On 7 August, Putin called an emergency meeting with his military and security service chiefs for an explanation. Angered Russian military bloggers have criticized senior officials for gross incompetence.

European gas prices have surged following reports of fighting near a crucial Russian station on the last remaining pipeline route to Europe through Ukraine. Despite this, gas supplies continue to flow.

Ukraine has not yet disclosed details about the operation or its goals. Speculation includes theories that the incursion could be aimed at seizing territory for future negotiations with Moscow or serving as a diversion to relieve pressure on Ukrainian defenses by drawing Russian forces away from the frontline.

The White House stated it would seek a “better understanding” from Kyiv, noting that Ukraine has not violated US regulations regarding the use of American-supplied weapons inside Russia.

The incident has highlighted the vulnerability of Russian border defenses, mainly as more Russian soldiers are engaged in Ukraine. It has also bolstered Ukrainian morale.

The incident has also undermined the Kremlin’s carefully crafted image of Putin as the defender of ordinary Russians.

Instead, the war he started in Ukraine has increasingly flown into Russia, with people in border regions facing constant threats from shelling and drone strikes targeting critical industrial sites.

For Ukraine, this situation strengthens its argument that the US and European allies should not be intimidated by Kremlin threats of escalation and should support Ukraine’s efforts to confront Putin in any way necessary to expedite the end of the conflict.

Lieutenant Colonel Janek Kesselmann, Deputy Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, believes that the military operations in Russia's Kursk Oblast will likely force Russia to redeploy its troops. Kesselmann noted that Russian forces were likely unprepared for the Ukrainian operations in the region, with the attack catching them off guard.

He also noted that, based on open data, Ukrainian troops had advanced about 15 kilometres from the border into Kursk Oblast.

"It is possible that the second line of Russian defence in the region has been partially breached. The offensive of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk area is likely to lead to the redeployment of Russian Federation units from other areas to ensure the defence of Russian units and counterattacks against Ukrainian forces in the region," Kesselman said.