Ukraine “without a fleet” beats Russia at sea, but drones won't replace aircraft carriers

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Ukraine has beaten Russia at sea without any warships, a remarkable achievement. But that doesn't mean conventional warships are obsolete - and it's certainly no reason to abandon aircraft carriers, according to former British naval officer Tom Sharp in The Telegraph.

First, the Russian Black Sea Fleet was severely limited by its need to operate from bases very close to Ukrainian-controlled territory. Sevastopol and Novorossiysk are within range of Ukraine’s arsenal of ground-based drones and Western-supplied missiles. Most of the ships destroyed by Ukrainian drones and missiles were hit while they were on board or at anchor.

Secondly, the Black Sea does not create very large waves. A high-speed sea drone is theoretically faster than a ship. The conditions of the Black Sea give the Ukrainians an advantage.

Third, in naval warfare, it is critical to have access to airborne radar that can cover hundreds of miles of sea. Radar on a ship cannot see low-flying objects or objects floating beyond its horizon. Russia has been unable to deploy any of its Tupolev-142 maritime patrol aircraft to the theater of operations—it needs them all in the north to ensure the safety of its nuclear deterrent submarines. The Russians lost a precious A-50 radar surveillance plane over the Sea of Azov in January, and then another deep in Russian airspace in February.

This means that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet cannot monitor the movements of Ukrainian drones or grain ships in the western Black Sea. With the proper radar picture from the air, Russia would detect drone attacks as soon as they left the harbor or even earlier, and they could then be intercepted long before they reached their targets.

NATO is unlikely to carry out such attacks. This is one of the main reasons why navies need aircraft carriers: to carry radar planes, which are the only way to scan large areas of sea and sky. The alternative is air bases on land, but these cannot move, making them perfect targets for drones and missiles. In any naval war, there may not be a single land base available.

Fourthly, the Black Sea Fleet ignores one of the basic principles of naval maneuver - echeloned defense.

"Anyone who suggests that Ukraine's success with land-based attack drones will change the nature of naval warfare and/or make the Navy obsolete either doesn't understand the Black Sea, the general nature of naval warfare... or actually wants a Navy budget. The same goes for many critics of aircraft carriers," Sharp concluded.