Ukraine forced Russian fleet out of Crimea, it will be difficult to return the peninsula

Since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine has repeatedly struck Crimea, destroying or damaging about half of the Russian navy's warships, including one submarine.

As Business Insider writes, our country has used drones, naval drones, and anti-ship missiles against the fleet and the Kerch Bridge, often with devastating consequences. Ukraine's campaign has even forced Russian warships to leave Crimea for bases in the port cities of Feodosia on the far side of Crimea and Novorossiysk in Russia.

This not only prevents the occupiers from using the peninsula as a key logistics route through southern Ukraine, but also spoils its appeal for Russian tourists. But, as the publication writes, if Ukraine hopes to reclaim Crimea, it will need a huge strike force, because the battle for Crimea could become the heaviest battle of the bloody war.

"It will be extremely difficult to get Crimea back because Crimea is essentially an island," retired US Marine Corps Colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Mark Cancian told the publication.

"A landing is impossible because Ukraine lacks ships to transport large numbers of troops and their heavy equipment. In addition, Russia still has long-range aircraft and submarines, which are essentially invulnerable at sea," the expert explained.

Russia has extensive military infrastructure across Crimea that would need to be severely damaged for Ukraine to have any chance of taking it back, according to Basil Germond, an international security expert at Lancaster University in the UK.

Military experts and analysts told Business Insider that Crimea is difficult to reach due to its location far from the front lines, Russia's heavily fortified defensive lines and Ukraine's lack of manpower and air power.

"Crimea is deep inside Russian-occupied territory and far from the current front lines," Cancian said.

Russia has also heavily fortified its front line with anti-tank ditches, trench warfare, "dragon's teeth" and minefields, with most of its defences in northern Crimea.

"The Russians are heavily fortified and well-defended in these areas, and it will take time for the Ukrainians to break down those defenses," said Mark Temnitsky, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.

Without the ability to transport large forces by air or sea, Ukraine will be forced to attack through Russian defensive lines to get closer to Crimea.

Despite the battlefield difficulties Ukraine faces, some experts believe it can retake Crimea given enough weapons, troops and time. This would require crossing the Perekop Isthmus separating Crimea from mainland Ukraine or the Sivash.

However, to do this, Ukraine first needs to break through the Surovikin Line - a complex system of defensive fortifications and obstacles in the south and east, which Ukraine has never broken through.

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