Ukraine launches more long-range drones than Russia for the first time

For the first time, Ukraine launched more long-range drones than Russia. According to Forbes, Russia launched 426 Shahed drones at Ukraine in July. During the same period, Ukraine launched more than 520 drones.

Russia is less effective at taking out drones as Ukrainian strikes inflict greater economic damage on refineries and other targets. Ukraine is gaining an edge in the strategic war of long-range drone strikes — and President Volodymyr Zelensky promises more and better attack drones over time.

Russia lost most of its stockpiles of long-range ballistic and cruise missiles in the first few months of the war. And while production has increased since 2022, Russia is launching missiles at roughly the same rate as it is producing them—about 120 per month.

While missiles are important for their destructive effect, most of Russia's long-range strike power now comes from drones. Their main weapon is the Iranian-developed Shahed series, which costs just $20,000, compared to a million or more for a missile.

The Shahed is increasingly being produced under license at a giant new factory in Yelabuga, east of Moscow. The design has been modified over the past two years, but the basics remain the same: a propeller-driven drone with a 2.4mm wingspan that flies at about 170km/h and carries a warhead of just over 45kg. Apart from its low cost, the Shahed’s main advantage is its range of more than 1,600km.

Russia typically launches waves of up to thirty Shaheds at a time. They are picked up by thousands of Ukrainian network microphones. They are shot down by mobile groups, or by more powerful air defense systems with surface-to-air missiles; some are blown off course or crashed to the ground by special electronic warfare systems.

There are a few other Russian long-range attack drones, but at the moment the vast majority are of the Shahed type.

Ukraine shoots down 90% of these drones, sometimes 100%. Obviously, the Shahids are still causing damage, but the threat is not growing.

In response, Ukraine has developed a wide range of different long-range attack drones – analyst HI Sutton has identified at least 22 different models, from converted light aircraft to custom-built jet-powered attack drones. Most, however, are designed to be as simple, cheap and effective as possible, regardless of appearance, like the Drainpipe Drone, which was first spotted in April. There are a handful of manufacturers – mostly Ukrainian start-ups raising funds for their projects. Many are mysterious, their existence known only from wrecks found in Russia.

The Ukrainian campaign is multifaceted, targeting a variety of high-value targets – oil refineries and oil and gas storage facilities. Dramatic aftermaths of the attacks often appear online. The overall damage to the industry is difficult to estimate, but it is growing. Sanctions are making it difficult to repair refineries, and Russia may be forced to raise prices or restrict supplies.

The second class of targets are Russian military air bases. The exact range of various Ukrainian attack drones is unknown, but the recent attack on the Olenya air base in Russia was carried out from more than 1,800 kilometers away. This range puts a huge number of Russian bases at risk.

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