The Wire - Jul 30, 2024

//The Wire//2130Z July 30, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES BEIRUT. RIOTS CONTINUE IN VENEZUELA. CLIMATE ACTIVISTS ATTACK HEATHROW AIRPORT.//
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-International Events-
Middle East: This morning Israel struck a residential building in Beirut. The target (a senior Hezbollah commander) was located in the Haret Hreik area, in the southeastern sector of the city. AC: As of this report, this appears to be an isolated strike and not a persistent bombing campaign.
In Israel, mass demonstrations are underway resulting from the detention of 9 IDF soldiers who are accused of very seriously abusing a Palestinian detainee (who is now reportedly in a state of paralysis). The detention of these soldiers sparked immediate and kinetic riots, with demonstrators attempting to breach the perimeter defenses of two separate military bases where the soldiers were being held for questioning, in order to free the detained soldiers.
AC: The abusive acts committed by some (or all) of these soldiers are too graphic and disturbing to describe in this report. Of note, most of the debate of these horrendous acts is not centered around whether or not the soldiers are guilty of the act, but rather whether or not the act itself is a crime. Very high-ranking Israeli politicians (to include National Security Minister Ben-Gvir, and MK Hanoch Milwidsky) have voiced support for the soldiers, taking the stance that such disturbing actions are justified and legal. Consequently, as distasteful and graphic as this incident is (and as unfathomable as it is for this incident to be the reason for unrest) the very kinetic demonstrations resulting from this incident have highlighted fractures between various factional elements within Israel.
South America: Mass rioting and civil unrest is underway in Venezuela following the recent questionable election results. Factional allegiances have complicated the response around the nation. Some reports indicate varying police departments, some soldiers, and even local warlords opposing what is perceived as Maduro’s bid to cling to power. Other reports indicate other police and military forces firing on demonstrators with live rounds. AC: Much of the reasoning for the unrest (and determining how much is related to political issues) remains complicated; some of the rioting is purely undertaken by opportunistic criminals, whereas other groups of armed individuals are exerting political dominance in their local areas. Much of the Venezuelan armed forces (particularly the senior leadership) has voiced support for Maduro, however pockets of soldiers are (in effect) defecting to resistance groups, or otherwise are refusing to target protesting civilians.
United Kingdom: This morning climate activists vandalized London’s Heathrow Airport by spraying paint throughout much of the Terminal 5 departure area. AC: One of the vandals is the same woman who vandalized a Vincent van Gogh painting in the National Gallery of London two years ago. She was convicted of this crime last Thursday. As she is potentially facing several years of imprisonment for the National Gallery attack, this was likely a motivating factor to double-down in serving the Just Stop Oil institution by committing one last attack before being out of commission.
In Southport, another child has died following yesterday’s stabbing attack. This brings the death toll for this attack to three, all of which were children. This afternoon riots broke out in Southport in response to authorities conducting information shaping operations to protect and conceal the identity of the assailant. At least one police vehicle was set on fire during the riot.
-HomeFront-
Iowa: Last night a train derailed in the community of Glidden. Local reports indicate at least three dozen cars catastrophically derailed, and recovery efforts are underway. No HAZMAT concerns were reported by Union Pacific. AC: So far, the cause of the derailment is not readily apparent.
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Analyst Comments: The effect of the Israeli strike in Beirut was probably militarily negligible, and likely intended to serve dual purposes: both to retaliate for Hezbollah’s previous strikes in the Golan Heights, as well as to goad Hezbollah into attacking Tel Aviv more directly. This massive escalation comes as other nations weigh in on Israel’s aspirations to invade Lebanon. Turkish President Erdoğan has used increasingly severe rhetoric over the past few days, to include openly threatening a response if Israel were to invade Lebanon with a ground force. Consequently, Hezbollah will probably conduct larger-than-usual missile/drone strikes on Israeli cities over the next few days.
In Venezuela, the complexity of the situation at hand indicates that simply explaining recent events as corruption aren’t quite an accurate picture of what is going on. On the one hand, Maduro has contributed significantly to the downfall of his own nation, with much of the blame for Venezuela’s economic woes being squarely placed on his regime. The election integrity issues experienced by the average Venezuelan voter also highlight the very real concerns of election tampering. However, Maduro’s opposition is nowhere near as organically organized as one might be led to believe by media sources. The United States (and various American NGO’s) have expended significant resources to oust Maduro due to his stranglehold on the crude oil reserves impacting American and British resource extraction throughout the region. As such, this may be a case of both a tyrant trying to cling to power at the same time a foreign government is trying to oust him and replace him with a different puppet regime. Whatever the case, the collection of options open to the Venezuelan people are largely an exercise in picking the least-worst way forward. For now, any means to that end will be challenging as Maduro’s control over the institutions that allow him to retain power present significant barriers to any real change occurring. Likewise, the overwhelming and dominating influence of the United States to guide the opposition movement likely will cause problems as well, and delegitimize the truly organic means of organization and opposition to Maduro that Venezuelan’s desire to undertake on their own.
Analyst: S2A1
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