RT News - July 04 2024 (LATE) SCO, INF Treaty, Missiles, Iran Election, Putin, Xi & Modi

RT International News. President Putin warned that if the West deployed an intermediate range missile system, Russia also has the right to develop and deploy in a reciprocal manner. (7 below) Donald Courter reports from Astana where the SCO has taken place over the past two days.
When the US withdrew from the INF treaty in August 2019, Russia was left with little option. It's all to do with trust. See 1) below.
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President Modi of India will visit Russia on Monday 8th July 2024. The visit will concentrate on trade, development and other international issues. Rajiv Dogra (former Indian Ambassador to several countries) comments on the visit. Runjhun Sharma talks about the special significance, it's PM Modi's first visit since the his re-election.
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Gun-running to Africa: $180,000 worth of arms were found in a home-products container and confiscated. One person has been arrested. Please see today's earlier post for more details.
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Iran elections: Tomorrow is the run-off election in Iran after the passing of Pres. Raisi in a helicopter crash last month. Yusef Jalali reports. Please see earlier video post for more details.
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President Biden - in it to win it, can he or can't he? Please see this morning's post for more verbose details.
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Anil Trigunayat (former Ambassador to Jordan and Libya) discusses with Mourad about the statement "reciprocal measures" made by President Putin today. Highly significant - China and India have agreed to commence formal talks about the conflict on their borders! (this is wonderful news)

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Below: 1) Security threats, de-dollarization, green transition: SCO outlines its goals
2) ‘Istanbul deal’ could be used for future talks with Kiev
3) Orphans used as decoys in Ukrainian draft-dodge scheme – ombudsman
4) US encouraging Ukraine to commit new crimes
5) Russia-China relations ‘best ever’ – Putin
6) Shanghai Cooperation Organization speeding up de-dollarization
* * * * * 7) Putin makes missile announcement * * * *
8) Putin sets condition for Ukraine ceasefire
9) Medvedev compares Ukraine conflict to US Civil War
9a) West has declared ‘war without rules’ on Russia
10) Russia EXPO to host beauty pageant
11) Elections in the West are masking an irreversible hidden process
12) Hezbollah launches massive attack on Israel
13) Re-post NATO : Member states have reportedly rejected Jens Stoltenberg’s proposal to spend €40 billion a year on aid for Kiev
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Short take: Vladimir Putin warns that if the US deploys an intermediate-range missile system, Russia also has a right to do so. India’s Prime Minister Modi is to visit Moscow on Monday, his first bilateral summit abroad since being re-elected. The talks with Vladimir Putin are to focus on further development of the two countries’ already strong relations. Nigerian customs authorities uncover a second package of illegal weaponry from Türkiye this week. In the previous incident more than 800 shotguns and 100-thousand ammunition rounds were seized.
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1) Security threats, de-dollarization, green transition: SCO outlines its goals 4 Jul, 2024 13:38

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has issued a joint declaration following a summit in Astana

The leaders of the ten countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have signed dozens of security and trade agreements during a summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.

The gathering on Thursday marked the accession of Belarus to the organization, which already included China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – a composition that puts the core of the SCO in Central Asia.

Following the summit in Kazakhstan, the SCO issued a final declaration that updated its position on global governance and environmental issues.

Multipolarity

SCO members have “close or coinciding assessments” of regional and international matters, and seek the creation of a “new democratic, just, political and economic international order,” the document says.

This transition faces resistance in the form of “increased use of force, systematic violation of international law, geopolitical confrontation, and conflicts” that pose risks to SCO members, it added.

Non-interference

SCO leaders have pledged that their governments will not participate in “any decision aimed at interference” in the internal affairs of other states or those that “contradict international law.”

As an example of improper actions, the declaration mentions meddling under the guise of the protection of human rights. Member states consider these rights to be universal, indivisible, and interconnected, and believe that sovereign nations have the responsibility to defend them in their respective jurisdictions.

Indivisible security

The UN must remain the primary international forum for coordinating relations between states. In order to do this effectively, reform is needed “to ensure the representation of developing nations,” the statement says.

While the SCO is Asia-centric, the approach of its members to building non-confrontational relations “can serve as the basis for creating an architecture of equal and indivisible security in Eurasia.”

Factors of instability

SCO leaders have identified several factors behind global instability, including attempts by some nations to develop global anti-ballistic missile systems. This amounts to “the creation of security for themselves at the expense of the security of other states,” the declaration reads.

The document supports international agreements on the reduction and control of weapons of mass destruction. The world needs better monitoring and enforcement mechanisms that would have legally binding power over all signatory nations to keep nuclear, chemical, and biological arms in check, it adds.

The SCO also expresses commitment to the peaceful use of space, which “should remain free from weapons of any kind,” the document says.

Terrorism

The Astana declaration cites terrorism as one of the most significant global problems. SCO members consider it unacceptable to use “terrorist, separatist and extremist groups for selfish goals,” and urge all nations to avoid double standards in counterterrorism.

“There can be no justification for terrorism in any form. The entire international community should decisively condemn any backing or sheltering of terrorists,” the document says. Such nations should be “isolated and exposed.”

The SCO urges measures to suppress extremist messaging online and to curb ideologies that promote “religious intolerance, xenophobia, aggressive nationalism, ethnic and racial discrimination.”

The declaration cites the conflict in Gaza, decrying the high civilian death toll caused by the hostilities between Israel and Palestinian militant groups. It urges “a full and sustainable ceasefire” and states that only a just and comprehensive resolution of the Palestinian issue can bring lasting peace to the Middle East.

Fair commerce

The Astana declaration calls for an “open, transparent, just, inclusive, non-discriminatory and multilateral” international trade system. SCO members disapprove of protectionism, unilateral sanctions and other trade restrictions.

Unilateral sanctions in particular “are incompatible with the principles of international law” and cause damage to third parties and international commerce as a whole, the document stresses.

SCO leaders urge the increased use of national currencies and the development of innovative payment systems to facilitate trade.

Members also aim to harmonize and integrate their e-commerce infrastructure and other parts of the digital economy, while cooperating to counter economic monopolization.

Sustained development

The document includes a long list of areas, from atomic energy to tourism, and healthcare to waste management, in which SCO states are cooperating. It lists specific initiatives and documents that govern their joint efforts.

The organization is currently focusing on fostering sustained development, which would provide for economic growth and environmental protection. The declaration calls for the transfer of relevant green technologies to developing nations.

It stresses that the transition away from fossil fuels should be balanced and take into account the interests of energy producers and consumers.
https://www.rt.com/news/600440-sco-final-declarartion-astana/
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2) ‘Istanbul deal’ could be used for future talks with Kiev – Putin 4 Jul, 2024 12:15

The unsigned draft focused on Ukraine’s neutrality and offered the country security guarantees

Moscow and Kiev could use a tentative agreement reached during talks in Istanbul early in the Ukraine conflict as a basis for further negotiations, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said.

The Russian leader was referring to a draft document that was on the verge of being formally signed in the Turkish capital in the spring of 2022. He said last year that under its terms, Ukraine would have committed to “permanent neutrality,” receive certain security guarantees and downsize its military.

Moscow claims that the talks were derailed by then UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who allegedly advised Kiev to “keep fighting.” Johnson has denied the accusation, however staff who were close to Vladimir Zelensky at time admit he had an influential role.

Speaking at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Putin reiterated that Russia – unlike Ukraine, which he said refused to engage with Moscow on direct orders from the West – has never closed the door to peace talks.

”The Istanbul agreements… have not gone away, they were initialed by the head of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation, which obviously means that Ukraine was quite satisfied with them,” he said, thanking Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for helping to broker the deal.

“These agreements remain on the table and could serve as the basis for continuing those talks.”

Kiev has refused to hold direct talks with the current leadership in Moscow since the autumn of 2022, after four of its former regions voted overwhelmingly to join Russia. In June, however, Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky said that the two countries could negotiate via intermediaries.

Last month, Putin said that Russia was ready to immediately open peace talks with Ukraine if it withdraws troops from Donbass and two of its other former regions, and commits to neutral status. He added that any final deal should be recognized in Western capitals and pave the way to lifting sanctions against Russia. Both Kiev and its Western backers have dismissed the offer.

Meanwhile, Zelensky has been promoting his ‘peace formula’ demanding that Russia withdraw its troops from the territories Kiev claims as its own and the establishment of a tribunal to prosecute Moscow for alleged war crimes. Russia has rejected the plan as divorced from reality.
https://www.rt.com/russia/600439-istanbul-deal-ukraine-russia-talks/
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3) Orphans used as decoys in Ukrainian draft-dodge scheme – ombudsman 4 Jul, 2024 10:02

Military-age men reportedly posed as social workers to accompany children who were being evacuated to Germany

Officials working with the Ukrainian social services used a group of orphans who were being evacuated to Germany to sneak their family members out of the country following the outbreak of the conflict, its human rights ombudsman has claimed.

Kiev banned all men of military age from traveling abroad without a special permit days after hostilities with Russia began in February 2022. However, Dmitry Lubinets revealed details of a potentially criminal scheme on Wednesday, which was aimed at getting Ukrainian men out of the country.

The alleged plot was uncovered earlier this year, when an official from the ombudsman’s office went to check on a group of 68 children from the Ukrainian foster system who had been living in Wuppertal, Germany since 2022.

They found that 13 children were missing and the group was unaccompanied by any Ukrainian carers.

Lubinets believes that two senior officials working with social services in Kiev used the evacuation of the children to get two of their relatives and a number of other adults out of Ukraine after the travel ban was introduced.

”The paperwork for the evacuation listed as accompanying officials people who had nothing to do with the system, some employed the day before departure and others not at all,” he said in a social media post.

”Each man resigned right after leaving the country and no longer works for the relevant organizations. Moreover, they did not go back to Ukraine.”

Lubinets said he has asked Ukrainian law enforcement to investigate his allegations. The Kiev prosecutor’s office announced on Thursday morning that it had launched a probe into the matter.

The ombudsman claims that the two social services officials had engaged in a coverup. One failed to write reports about inspections he supposedly made during visits to Germany, while the other submitted short, virtually identical texts for both 2022 and 2023.

Of the 4.2 million Ukrainians who had been granted international protection in Europe up to last April, around one-third were adult males, according to EU statistics. Germany has taken in just under a third of the total number – more than any other EU nation.

Public opposition to mobilization escalated this year after the Ukrainian government introduced a draconian reform to boost mandatory conscription numbers. An average of 200 men are now trying to illegally cross the border each day, the national parliament was told on Thursday.
https://www.rt.com/russia/600425-ukraine-foster-kids-scam/
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4) US encouraging Ukraine to commit new crimes – Moscow 4 Jul, 2024 08:58

Pumping Kiev with weapons is a “futile project” that will increase the number of civilian casualties, Ambassador Anatoly Antonov has said

The US is nudging Ukraine towards committing new war crimes and helping to prolong the conflict by continuing to send military aid to the embattled country, Moscow’s ambassador to Washington, Anatoly Antonov, has said.

On Wednesday, the administration of US President Joe Biden announced another military assistance package for Kiev totaling around $2.5 billion. It includes air defense munitions, HIMARS missiles, artillery rounds, anti-tank weapons and other equipment. Since the start of the conflict in February 2022, the Biden administration has committed more than $53 billion in military aid to Ukraine.

In a statement on Telegram, Antonov denounced the latest American aid package, charging that Washington “continues its course towards war” and “harbors illusory dreams of a strategic victory over Russia.”

“Pumping up the agonizing Zelensky regime with deadly weapons is a futile project. In essence, this is encouraging Kiev terrorists to commit new crimes.”

American weapons will not deter Russia from pushing on toward its end goal of “liberating Ukraine,” the envoy said. “They will only lead to new casualties among civilians, including women and children.”

He also said that the Ukraine conflict mostly benefits the US defense industrial complex, while Washington “is balancing on the brink of conflict with Russia, the largest nuclear power.” The ambassador added that “it feels as if they are not thinking about the global consequences of the catastrophe that is approaching due to the short-sighted and dangerous policies of Washington.”

In addition, Antonov opined that by approving Ukraine aid, US policymakers intend to “demonstrate that they are steadfast in defending the crumbling world order based on American rules on the eve of the NATO summit in Washington.” Those politicians, however, are ignoring “the cost of such a Pyrrhic victory,” he stated.

The ambassador said that the US leadership is blind to the true state of affairs, as it has become “entangled in its own networks of intrigue and sanctions” which have failed to deter Russia and other independent states, while becoming a burden for the West.

The envoy also recalled that the West rejected Moscow’s peace overture that could put an end to the conflict. Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow was ready to immediately open peace talks with Ukraine once it withdraws troops from Donbass and two other former regions and agrees to commit to a neutral status.
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5) Russia-China relations ‘best ever’ – Putin 4 Jul, 2024 00:09

Moscow’s strategic partnership with Beijing is a global “stabilizing factor”, the Russian president has said

Moscow and Beijing are building relations based on equality and mutual respect in the interests of their people, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said during a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Putin and Xi held a lengthy bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Wednesday.

“We have repeatedly stated with good reason that Russia-China relations, our comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation, are going through the best period in their history,” the Russian leader said. They are “guided by the principles of equality, mutual benefit and respect for each other’s sovereignty,” he added.

.."Our cooperation is not directed against anyone. We do not create any blocs or alliances; we are simply acting in the interests of our people..."

The Chinese president in turn noted that his regular meetings with Putin are “not just a good tradition of ours, but also the symbol of the high level that Russian-Chinese relations enjoy.”

The leaders agreed to enhance ties to safeguard their countries’ legitimate interests, with Putin calling it a “main stabilizing factor on the international stage.”

“Facing an international situation fraught with turbulence and changes, the two countries should keep upholding the original aspiration of lasting friendship, and sticking to the determination of benefiting the people,” Xi added.

Putin also promised to support China’s chairmanship of the SCO in 2024–2025 in “every way,” calling the organization “one of the key pillars of a fair multipolar world order.”
https://www.rt.com/news/600412-putin-xi-relations-best-ever/
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6) Shanghai Cooperation Organization speeding up de-dollarization – Putin 4 Jul, 2024 11:27

Use of national currencies in Russia’s settlements with fellow SCO members has exceeded 92%, the president has said

Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are ramping up settlements in national currencies, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on Thursday at the SCO summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.

Founded in 2001, the SCO is an economic and security bloc covering most of Eurasia and accounting for more than 20% of global GDP. The organization includes India, Iran, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and now Belarus.

Currently, 14 countries, including Egypt as the only African state, hold SCO dialogue-partner status, allowing them to participate in the organization’s specialized events at the invitation of its members.

Speaking at a Council of Heads of State meeting, Putin noted that the SCO members have increased the use of national currencies in mutual settlements.

“For example, their share in Russia’s commercial transactions with members of the organization has already exceeded 92% in the first four months of this year,” the president said.

The global trend toward using national currencies in trade instead of the US dollar gained significant momentum after Russia was cut off from the Western financial system and had its foreign reserves frozen in 2022.

Putin also reiterated Russia’s proposal to create an independent mechanism for settling payments within the SCO, adding that meetings between finance ministers and central bank governors help boost trade and investment ties within the organization.

Earlier this year, the head of the Russian central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, noted that more countries were having doubts about the West’s SWIFT, after many Russian banks were cut off from the Belgium-based financial messaging system following the start of the Ukraine conflict in 2022.
https://www.rt.com/business/600435-sco-national-currencies-putin/
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7) Putin makes missile announcement 4 Jul, 2024 14:37

Moscow is ready to start manufacturing systems that were previously banned by the now-defunct INF Treaty, the Russian president has said

The Russian defense industry is ready to start producing intermediate and shorter-range missiles that had been banned under a now-defunct treaty with the US, President Vladimir Putin announced on Thursday.

The Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) had prohibited these systems, but the US withdrew from it in 2019. Moscow chose to maintain the ban so long as Washington abided by it as well.

“As I’ve said, in connection with the US withdrawal from this treaty and the announcement that they are starting production, we also consider ourselves entitled to start research, development, and in the future, production,” Putin said on Thursday at a press conference following the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.

“We are conducting this R&D, and we are ready to start production. We have already, in principle, given the relevant instructions to our industry,” he added.

Putin mentioned during a meeting of the National Security Council in Moscow last week the possibility that Russia might resume production of previously banned missile systems, citing the “hostile actions” of the US.

“We now know that the US is not only producing these missile systems, but has also brought them to Europe, Denmark, to use in exercises. Not long ago, it was reported that they were in the Philippines,” Putin explained at the time.

Washington’s moves left Moscow with no choice but to revive its intermediate-range and short-range programs, he said, adding that they would be deployed “based on the actual situation, if necessary.”

The 1987 INF treaty had banned both the US and Soviet Union from producing and fielding ground-based ballistic and cruise missiles – as well as their respective launchers – with ranges of 500 to 5,500 km (310 to 3,420 miles). The treaty did not affect air- or sea-based systems with the same range. This helped lower the tensions over the deployment of nuclear weapons in Europe.

Russia as the successor to the USSR continued to adhere to the treaty, while raising concerns that US installations in Eastern Europe – ostensibly designed as missile defenses – violated the treaty because their launchers were capable of deploying ground-attack munitions as well. In 2019, Washington pulled out of the treaty, accusing Moscow of having violated it without offering evidence to back up that claim.
https://www.rt.com/russia/600448-russia-missile-production-putin/
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8) Putin sets condition for Ukraine ceasefire 4 Jul, 2024 14:22

Hostilities can only be suspended if “irreversible” steps are taken by Kiev, Vladimir Putin has said

A ceasefire between Moscow and Kiev can only be agreed if Ukraine takes certain “irreversible” steps that would be “acceptable” for Russia, President Vladimir Putin has said. Otherwise, a cessation of hostilities would be used by Kiev to rearm itself and get ready to continue the conflict, he added.

The president made the remarks during a press conference at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan on Thursday.

“We simply cannot declare a ceasefire in the hope that the opposing side will take some positive steps,” Putin said.

“We cannot allow the adversary to take advantage of this ceasefire to improve its positions, rearm itself, fill up its army through forced mobilization, and get prepared to continue the armed conflict,” he added.

DETAILS TO FOLLOW
https://www.rt.com/russia/600447-putin-ukraine-ceasefire/
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9) Medvedev compares Ukraine conflict to US Civil War 4 Jul, 2024 13:55

The former president suggested that Moscow and Kiev were similar to the northern and southern states who fought over slavery

The current conflict between Moscow and Kiev is similar to the 19th century US Civil War, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev claimed in a Telegram post on Thursday as America celebrates its Independence Day.

In his message, the former Russian president pointed out that the Civil War was spoken about less these days than the 1776 Declaration of Independence from the British Empire. The war, according to Medvedev, was a significantly bigger historical event and its results had a “much more profound effect” on the average American citizen.

The Civil War, which lasted from 1861 to 1865, was fought between the Union and a group of southern states that chose to separate from the US and form the so-called Confederacy. A key part of the conflict was then-President Abraham Lincoln’s desire to abolish slavery, which the southern states opposed.

One reason the topic of the Civil War is now downplayed, according to Medvedev, is because the “gloomy parallels with today” have become increasingly obvious, and there is now a “premonition” of another internal conflict in the US.

Another reason, Medvedev claimed, is that the war between the Union states and the slave-owning Confederacy “greatly resembles the Ukrainian conflict.” He suggested that these parallels “are more than obvious.”

“In terms of industrial potential and human resources, the difference between the North and the South was comparable to that between today’s Russia and Ukraine. And with that, the ideals of the adversaries greatly differed. For the North, it was equality, liberty, same laws for all, while the South propagated inhumane, inveterate racism,” Medvedev wrote.

He argued that, during the Civil War, “the same foreign bastards” like England and France “brazenly intervened” and were hoping for the South to win. They supported the slave-owners “in the same way they support Nazi Kiev today, together with the present-day US,” he added.

Medvedev said the outcome of the US Civil War and the abolition of slavery was one of the brightest pages in America’s short history, and suggested that the international public should view the Ukraine conflict through a similar lens.

“In essence,” he concluded, the Ukraine conflict is “a civil war among the same people, in which the majority are forced to defend their independence with weapons, fighting against the new Nazis who are once again supported by corrupt Europe and the American military industrial complex.”

He predicted that, just like in the 19th century, the outcome of the current conflict would be “the unification and revival of Great Russia,” and paraphrased former US President Donald Trump in claiming it would “Make Russia Great Again.”
https://www.rt.com/russia/600445-medvedev-us-civil-war-ukraine/

=========RELATED from 13 Jun, 2024

9a) West has declared ‘war without rules’ on Russia – Medvedev

There should be virtually no limits on how Moscow retaliates for the “maximum damage,” the former president has argued

Moscow should use every opportunity to inflict “maximum damage” on Western nations that have declared a “war without rules” on Russia, former president Dmitry Medvedev has argued.

Every weakness of the US and its allies should be exploited to undermine them and obstruct life for their citizens, the Russian official said on Thursday, reacting to the latest round of sanctions announced by Washington earlier this week.

”Are they afraid that we would transfer our arms to the enemies of the Western world? We should send every kind of weapon, except nuclear (for now)!” Medvedev wrote on social media. “Are they afraid of anarchy and crime waves in large cities? We should help disrupt their municipal authorities!”

Russia could trigger a war in space, wage a psychological warfare campaign against Western citizens so that they “tremble under blankets in their cozy homes” and unleash a tsunami of fake news “to turn their life into a never-ending nightmare, in which they cannot distinguish reality from the wildest fiction.”

Moscow should “obliterate their energy infrastructure, industry, transport, banking and social services. Instil fear over an imminent collapse of all critical infrastructure,” according to Medvedev, who currently serves as deputy chair of the Russian Security Council.

The latest round of American restrictions against Russian entities targets energy, metals and mining as well as the financial sector. Among other things, it has forced the Moscow Stock Exchange to suspend all trade in the US dollar and the euro.

The package is one of the biggest since the Ukraine conflict escalated into open hostilities in February 2022, impacting over $100 million in trade between Russia and its foreign partners, according to estimate from the US Department of the Treasury.

Medvedev claimed that a campaign of “maximum damage” as outlined in his post was preferable to simply ignoring the Western pressure, and urged Russian citizens to act accordingly.
https://www.rt.com/russia/599204-medvedev-maximum-damage-west/
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10) Russia EXPO to host beauty pageant 3 Jul, 2024 20:14

The ‘Beauty of Russia-2024’ will be held at the VDNKh exhibition center in Moscow this week

The grand opening of the ‘Beauty of Russia-2024’ beauty and talent festival took place on Wednesday at the Russia EXPO international exhibition in Moscow.

The opening ceremony was held during the ‘Miss Moscow-2024’ pageant at the All-Russian Exhibition Center (VDNKh). The festival will be held on July 7.

As part of the event, a parade of national costumes representing different regions of Russia will be held. The winners of the festival from previous years are expected to take part in the parade alongside the pageant participants.

According to the organizers, the event will allow viewers “to immerse themselves in the country’s rich cultural heritage and discover the possibilities of using traditional materials and techniques in modern clothing.”

The festival also features designer fashion shows, performances by young vocalists, and pop stars.

The ‘Beauty of Russia’, which has been held since 1995, is one of the oldest beauty pageants in the country. Participants are traditionally the finalists of regional beauty contests. The winners, who have represented Russia at international competitions at different times, have gone on to become Miss World, Miss United Continents, Miss Earth, and others.

‘Miss Moscow’ is an annual beauty contest for residents of Moscow and the Moscow region under the age of 35. Its predecessor was one of the first Soviet beauty pageants, Moscow Beauty, held from 1988 to 1991.
https://www.rt.com/russia/600404-russia-expo-beauty/
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11) Elections in the West are masking an irreversible hidden process - Analysis, Vatfor Project 4 Jul, 2024 11:19

The Western electoral system is facing a deep crisis — but this may actually be good news for civil society

One of the signs of the times is the global trend towards personality cults and the irremovability of leaders. And apparently, liberal societies in the West are also moving in this direction.

The current situation in the leading Western countries may be called a crisis of their political systems, but this is only the tip of the iceberg – in reality, we’re observing a far bigger issue. This is not the first time it’s happened since World War Two (recall the situation in the 1960s and ‘70s), but the depth and scale of the changes which are taking place in the world today suggest that the time is ripe for major changes in global institutions, including the electoral system.

The most important mechanism
Western propaganda has convinced us that elections are the result of fair competition and almost anyone can come to power as long as their ideas are supported by a sufficient number of people. Of course, this is not the case – no country would be able to function if it radically changed course every few years.

In reality, these elections are the final stage of the legitimization or, so to speak, public approval, of ideas and people that have undergone a long selection process by the ruling class. In an ideal world, this system supposes a perfect feedback loop – if the country and society are moving in the wrong direction, this is reflected in the elections; then, new people with new ideas make their way into politics, and the country adjusts its general course without suffering unnecessary shocks. Since healthy societies prefer stability and predictability, any populist or extremist forces would have no chance of coming to power.

However, in fact the political system is aimed at self-preservation, and for the sake of long-term stability it doesn’t want to bring in new blood. As a result, once meaningful and fundamental political ideas eventually mature into a set of mechanically repeated dogmas. Public discontent accumulates over the years and eventually gives rise to counter-elites, which grow stronger and could come to power in the end. The popularity of extreme right or left forces is the first sign of a crisis in society.

This is exactly what happened in the West after the Cold War. Over the past 30-40 years, Western elections have turned into a sham. Of course, it doesn’t look as bad as the Soviet system with its single candidate. But a competitive atmosphere doesn’t necessarily mean that there are alternatives – and until recently all Western candidates had to fit into a single mainstream liberal agenda.

A candidate or party could be slightly more “rightist” or “leftist,” but the general political course was never adjusted and any such attempt was considered heresy. As a result, these votes have lost their main function: to monitor popular sentiment and smoothly adjust the political course.

The weakening of the electoral system has led to the loss of public feedback. These days, any Western politician can understand the words of late Soviet leader Yuri Andropov, “We don’t know the society we live in.”

However, instead of acknowledging this fact, we see almost complete denial. We are doing everything right, the West says, but dark forces are viciously oppressing us; it’s their fault, so we need to unite around the leader/ the party/ our ideals; we can’t let the enemies of democracy come to power.

The disintegration of the liberal-globalist system is a historically objective process, and the traditional electoral system is falling apart together with it. However, it is interesting that the lies of the old elites, who are desperately looking for ways to prevent non-systemic forces from coming to power, have greatly accelerated this process and have devalued the electoral system even more.

Instead of trying to fix this malfunctioning fundamental social mechanism, the elites are destroying it with their own hands. And this will have far-reaching consequences.

We’ve been here ourselves
Russia knows what happens when you replace politics with political engineering – this happened in the 1996 presidential elections in Russia. At the time, the Communist Party, headed by Gennady Zyuganov, competed with then-President Boris Yeltsin, whose popularity was rapidly falling, and the new post-Soviet Russian elites faced the prospect of full-blown communist revival .

Today, leading Western democracies are replaying that scenario. French liberals published an almost literal copy of Yeltsin’s election newspaper (which was titled ‘God Forbid!’), and their US friends want an incapacitated old man to run for president and to prosecute his opponent.

Yeltsin managed to win the 1996 election and later, without discrediting himself, appointed a successor, thereby laying the foundations of modern political power in Russia. But unlike him, it seems that [US President Joe] Biden and [French President Emmanuel] Macron are doomed to fail.

The Democrats are not able to present Biden as a strong candidate, but they have no backup plan, and last-minute attempts to replace Biden will only lead to a major fight within the party. The outcome of the presidential race is becoming increasingly unpredictable, and in this situation anything is possible, even an assassination attempt on Biden’s main competitor, Donald Trump.

As for Macron, he has obviously outsmarted himself. As a result of his own decision to call a snap election, he is about to be defeated and lose his majority in the parliament. France may face three years of chaos with the bleakest of prospects for the liberal ruling class.

Similar processes are going on in other Western countries. The 2024 G7 summit in Italy proved this point. Out of the seven leaders of the “free world,” only Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni could not be called a lame duck – and she came to power as a representative of right-wing forces but was forced into a mainstream political course.

What we’re seeing now is an important historical moment, but for the sake of this article it is even more important to note what will happen next. Not all liberal republics will survive this crisis. The formation of new ideologies will require a strong centralized government and a strong leader.

This figure will either be chosen by the elites who are concerned with preserving their country, or will come to power “from below” – i.e., by means of a revolution and the re-establishment of the state. In any case, as a result of the current crisis, elections will lose their value.

Of course, no one will crown yesterday’s presidents and proclaim them emperors. Elections will probably continue to exist, but instead of being the final stage of an intra-elite competition that runs according to a pre-approved scenario, they will turn into referendums where the people will back the leader they trust.

Of course, by traditional liberal-globalist standards, this is undemocratic. However, democracy has become mainly effective feedback from the masses to the elites that allows the country to correct its domestic and foreign policy.

As we mentioned above, in the West this function has been lost, which means that democracy itself has been also. The system that will come to replace it will require its own feedback mechanisms (not necessarily through elections), and its nature will be determined by the effectiveness of these.

In the meantime, take the time to appreciate current events. They are not something you see every day.

By Sergey Poletaev, information analyst and publicist, co-founder and editor of the Vatfor project.
https://www.rt.com/news/600431-elections-in-west/
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12) Hezbollah launches massive attack on Israel 4 Jul, 2024 15:51

The Lebanese militant group fired over 200 rockets and drones targeting military positions in response to the killing of a top commander

Lebanese militant group Hezbollah claims to have launched more than 200 rockets and drones targeting Israeli military positions on Thursday in response to the killing of a senior commander.

A Hezbollah source told Al Jazeera that Thursday’s barrage, the second major attack in as many days, was retaliation for Israel’s killing of Muhammad Nasser in southern Lebanon a day earlier. His death prompted Hezbollah to launch more than 100 rockets into Israel on Wednesday.

Nasser, also known as Hajj Abu Nimah, was the third high-ranking Hezbollah fighter killed in almost nine months of cross-border fighting sparked by the Israeli war in Gaza.

Reuters cited the Israeli military as giving a similar assessment of the scale of the attack, stating that “200 projectiles and over 20 suspicious aerial targets were identified crossing from Lebanon into Israeli territory,” a number of which were intercepted by Israeli air defenses and fighter jets. No casualties were reported.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Wednesday that the country’s forces were hitting Hezbollah “very hard every day” and will be ready to take any action necessary against the group. However, Israel’s preference is reportedly to reach a negotiated arrangement.

Meanwhile, senior Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine has warned that the group would increase its strikes against Israel.

“The series of responses continues in succession, and this series will continue to target new sites that the enemy did not imagine would be hit,” Safieddine said at an event in Beirut commemorating the killed commander.

The growing tensions between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have been causing concern of an escalation into an all-out war in the Middle East.

According to Reuters, Israeli attacks in Lebanon have killed more than 300 Hezbollah fighters and some 90 civilians. Israel reportedly said that strikes from Lebanon have killed 18 soldiers and 10 civilians.

Hezbollah’s deputy leader Sheikh Naim Kassem told AP this week that the only way to stop the escalation on the Israeli-Lebanese border is for West Jerusalem to end its operation in Gaza. Hezbollah has been claiming to be striking Israel in solidarity with the Palestinian armed group Hamas.

West Jerusalem declared war on Hamas after the militant group launched a surprise attack in the south of the country last October, leaving more than 1,200 people dead and taking over 200 hostages. The Gaza campaign has inflicted widespread destruction on the Palestinian enclave, leaving more than 37,000 Palestinians dead and over 86,000 injured, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.
https://www.rt.com/news/600442-hezbollah-attack-israel-hamas/
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NATO chief’s push for Ukraine funding fails – media 3 Jul, 2024 15:20

Member states have reportedly rejected Jens Stoltenberg’s proposal to spend €40 billion a year on aid for Kiev

NATO member states have rejected a proposal by Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to spend €40 billion ($43 billion) a year on aid for Ukraine, several media outlets have reported. The constituent countries, however, have agreed to earmark this sum for Kiev’s needs next year, Reuters claimed.

Since late May, the outgoing secretary general has on multiple occasions urged member states to make a long-term funding commitment at the upcoming NATO summit in Washington, DC on July 9-11.

During a press conference last month, Stoltenberg claimed that “allies have provided around €40 billion worth of military support to Ukraine each year” since 2022. The NATO chief said he wanted to “maintain this level of support for as long as necessary,” securing “fresh funding every year.”

On Wednesday, Germany’s Deutsche Presse-Agentur, citing unnamed sources from several delegations present at NATO consultations, claimed that Stoltenberg’s proposal had fallen through due to opposition from member states.

Reuters also reported that Stoltenberg’s original request had been turned down, with member states merely stating their intention to re-evaluate allied contributions at future NATO summits.

They also vowed to prepare two reports over the course of the next year to clearly establish each nation’s area of responsibility in terms of aid for Ukraine. The mechanism would supposedly be based on the GDP of member states, with more affluent nations expected to foot most of the bill.

Speaking during a press conference in mid-June, Stoltenberg recounted how the “United States spent six months agreeing to a supplemental for Ukraine.” He also lamented that “some of the promises that the European allies have made have not been delivered.”

“And if we turn this into not voluntary contributions, but NATO commitments, of course it will become more robust, it will become more reliable,” he argued at the time.

Stoltenberg also touted the creation of a Security Assistance Group for Ukraine, which would be based in Wiesbaden, Germany. The structure is expected to coordinate NATO military assistance for Ukraine, with the chief of the US European Command, General Christopher Cavoli, at the helm.

Some observers have speculated that the new, less-US-centered infrastructure is meant as a substitute, should the existing Ramstein group begin to falter. These concerns are understood to have been growing within NATO as a second Trump term stateside appears more likely.

The Republican hopeful has repeatedly criticized the Biden administration’s generous handouts to Kiev, and vowed to end the Ukraine conflict in short order if elected.
https://www.rt.com/news/600392-reports-nato-rejects-ukraine-pledge/
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