Warren Buffet – “A Storm is Brewing in the Stock Market” – Is a 40% Crash on the Horizon?

Warren Buffet is preparing for a $55 TRILLION STORM that has been brewing for the past 15 years.

Warren: “But I don’t mind at all, under current conditions, building the cash position, when I look at the alternative of what’s available in the equity market and I look at the composition of what’s going on in the world, we find it quite attractive.”

SO – good ole Warren Buffet is saying it is ATTRACTIVE right now to get the heck out of stocks and be sitting on Cash.

Is that not a Warning?

His indicators he uses are indicating a potential 40% crash which would allow anyone sitting on cash some excellent entry points.

Buffet is sitting on about $200 BILLION of Cash, which is about 5.4% of portfolio and continues to drain.

Buffet said: “We only swing at pitches we like.”

He says there are not many opportunities right now.

“Things aren’t attractive, there’s certain things that can change and we’ll see if they do.”

I believe he just told us something here. “We’ll see if they do.”

What was he talking about? He is speculating on a significant haircut and it has never been more easy to read as he is sitting on this much cash and flat out said it.

The “change” he is referring to is a financial storm.

When Warren begins selling some of his “Forever Holdings” like Apple, that should be a sign that he KNOWS something is coming.

This is how the Whales get ready to go on feeding binge and that is what he is preparing to do when sh*t hits the fan.

As of July 1, 2024, the PE Ratio of the S&P 500 is around 22, which technically isn’t that bad really. So if he is liquidating positions at when the PE Ratio is not bad, he definitely knows more than he is sharing with us.

For someone who says he doesn’t try to TIME the stock market, he sure always seems to time the market very well which is why he is called the “Greatest Stock Investor of All Time.”

He is the GOAT of Investing.

When he says he does not try to time the market, that is a little difficult to believe.

You don’t become the GOAT by buying high.

In investing TIMING is EVERYTHING.

If you take a look at a little history of Warren Buffet, he has ALWAYS been in the KNOW somehow. People would say that he was washed up over 20 years ago, but oh no, he was just WAY ahead of the game and it was those who were trash talking that were holding the bag when the market crashed.

During the .com bubble, Buffet gave a speech about why he wasn’t investing and people thought he had lost his mind.

Then the S&P crashed by 50% and guess who was sitting on Cash to take advantage.

Good Ole Warren.

I guess he wasn’t so crazy after all.

Fast forward to today. People are asking the same questions and acting the same way.

“Warren is too old, he has lost his touch.”

Has he?

I don’t believe so.

Guess who was sitting on $40 during the Mortgage Backed Security “housing crisis”?

That would be Warren.

How did he know this?

Especially for a guy who says he doesn’t focus on timing?

Once again he had PERFECT TIMING.

I believe we are getting really close to another stock market crash and Buffet will be there once again, with perfect timing.

Buffet bought BNSF Railway for $34 Billion and it is now worth $150 Billion. Not bad for someone who had lost their mind.

Warren didn’t BORROW his way to the top, he simply had unbelievable timing with the cash on hand he had. He doesn’t believe in leveraging his investments. Smart guy.

Buffet purchases “high productivity” physical stocks.

The Buffet Indicator

On top you have the total value of the stock market = Wilshire 5000 Index

On the bottom you have the size of the US Economy measured by Gross Domestic Product

GDP is the value of all the Goods & Services produced by a country

In March of 2024 the Wilshire 5000 Index was $55.84 Trillion.

The GDP was $28.28 Trillion.

$55.84/$28.28=197%

That is the Buffet Indicator = 197%

Now you compare it to Historical Levels.

Is it high, low or average?

So in March 2024 – this was 61% HIGHER than the historical trend line.

That is 2 standard deviations of what is considered “Fully Valued.”

That means the Stock Market would have to fall 40% just to be considered “Fairly Valued.”

History tends to repeat so I am expecting a good haircut of the US Stock Market soon.

Source: Investor Center -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-EI4A7HDCY

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END. 7/5/2024 – 6:00 PM
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