If Donald Trump is up by 14 in Iowa then...

If Donald Trump is up by 14 in Iowa then…

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/iowa/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-oliver https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/06/17/2024-election-donald-trump-vs-joe-biden-vs-robert-kennedy-jr-iowa-poll/74088665007/

Clay & Buck were recently talking about a new poll from a respected pollster that had Donald J. Trump up by 18 in Iowa. Margin of error is 3.9%, so we can assume that Donald is up by 14. Clay was speculating that if Donald leads Iowa by that massive margin, it signals enough of a wave that he will win the general election.

This is NOT scientific, but let’s run the numbers for Iowa from the 1992 POTUS election (and 2000) through 2020 & see how Iowa fared against the nation en masse in POTUS elections. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

I’m starting at 1992 because every election from then on, except the Obama wins either featured a “close” election or both candidates failed to breach the 50% plus one mark. If you think I should use something else, sue me. This is only the popular vote though & we know the Founders rightly rejected a National Popular Vote to determine a President, because they rightly hated democracy.

1992 National: Republican -5.56%

1992 Iowa: Republican -6.02%

1996 National: Republican -8.51%

1996 Iowa: Republican – 10.34%

2000 National: Republican -0.51%

2000 Iowa: Republican -0.32%

2004 National: Republican +2.47%

2004 Iowa: Republican +0.67%

2008 National: Republican -7.26%

2008 Iowa: Republican -9.54%

2012 National: Republican -3.86%

2012 Iowa: Republican -5.81%

2016 National: Republican -2.09%

2016 Iowa: Republican +9.41%

2020 National: Republican -4.45%

2020 Iowa: Republican +8.2%

From 1992 to 2020, the average margin of victory/loss for the GOP nominee nationally was minus 3.721%, Population Standard Deviation = 3.367%. Under that metric, the GOP did not do well in nationally (remember, popular vote) during that time frame in POTUS races.

From 1992 to 2020, the average margin of victory/loss for the GOP nominee in Iowa was minus 1.718%, population standard deviation = 7.076%. With that wide variation, the GOP did much better in Iowa.

[The following be a better time frame, as it doesn’t go too far out. There are 3 Democrat-dominated states (NY, CA, IL) where the Dums have increased their majorities & it skews their popular vote “victories.” Those states are also hemorrhaging population & care circling the drain]

From 2000 to 2020, the average margin of victory/loss for the GOP nominee nationally was minus 2.616%, population standard deviation = 3.083%

From 2000 to 2020, the average margin of victory/loss for the GOP nominee in Iowa was PLUS 0.435% & the Population Standard Deviation = 6.831% *This metric barely intersects (using the SD) w/ the above metric. Since 2000, Iowa has trended a lot more towards the GOP side (especially since 2016) than the national trend.

If Iowa was tilting that far towards the GOP side (and since the Dumbasscrats have gone full pedophile, trying to get XY chromosome predators in your daughter’s locker room, as well as abortion-on-demand at 9 months & unmitigated Communism, I digress) it would be ALMOST a full two standard deviations above the norm for 2000-2020. You can see how Iowa has changed when we start the clock in 2000, instead of 1992.

*I should also mention that the margin of error may NOT be in favor of Biden & if so, that would push it two full standard deviations above the norm in Iowa, using 2000-2020 as our baseline*

This is not scientific, HOWEVER, if Iowa is shifting that much it is NOT good news for the Party of Pedophiles & Lenin.

I think it’s unlikely that Donald Trump wins the popular vote, but if it’s going to be close, that’s bad news for the man who showered w/ his daughter. I do believe this election will see no candidate breach the 50% mark, plus one vote nationally.

The closer the popular vote will be, the worse it is for the Fake President we have in the White House. The Dems will have YUUUGE margins of victory in 3 states (CA, NY, IL) that are seeing people leave in droves & they are a mess. This is what drives their hollow popular vote victories.

Again, if Trump is going to see that margin of victory in Iowa (and I do believe he will win by double digits, we have a long way to go though) then that spells bad news for Ashley Biden’s father.

Just a little food for thought & BTW, Trump did win the 2020 election https://web.archive.org/web/20220608034413/https://professor_enigma.webs.com/democrat-election-fraud https://web.archive.org/web/20220608034412/https://professor_enigma.webs.com/democrat-vote-fraud