The Wire - June 24, 2024

//The Wire//2030Z June 24, 2024//
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//BLUF: RUSSIAN CIVILIANS KILLED IN UKRAINIAN STRIKE ON SEVASTOPOL. TERROR ATTACKS STRIKE DAGESTAN. SOCIAL DISORDER IN THE WEST HIGHLIGHTS GROWING CONCERNS.//
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-International Events-
Europe: Overnight a Ukrainian missile strike targeted Sevastopol Naval Base, allegedly with US-supplied ATACMS missiles. As Russian forces intercepted the missiles, many civilians on the beach in the vicinity of Russian military positions were killed as debris fell on them. So far, dozens have been reported killed, along with hundreds wounded (though numbers are hard to verify). AC: At this time, it does not appear that Ukraine deliberately targeted civilians on the beach in this specific instance (as this would be ill-advised from a military targeting perspective, in addition to the obvious humanitarian concerns). However, this is unlikely to matter much in the end; civilians killed via the debris and/or mis-directed warheads resulting from a successful interception are certain to be treated as combat casualties by Russia.
This follows general unrest in Dagestan. Several terror attacks have taken place throughout the semi-autonomous district of Russia, continuing the long history of violence in the region. This latest escalation has come following Islamic terror groups targeting religious institutions throughout the region. AC: Casualty data is hard to verify, however varying sources claim the death toll has reached 20x fatalities during this latest series of terror attacks. Apart from this figure, allegedly 5x attackers are also deceased following the attacks themselves and/or the counterterrorism operation launched in the hours after the attacks.
Germany: A woman has reportedly been convicted of varying hate crimes following her comments regarding an extremely graphic 2020 assault case involving a young girl and almost a dozen men (all of which are of Middle Eastern descent or otherwise were immigrants to Germany). As a reminder of the details of this landmark (and disturbing) case, 8 of the 9 perpetrators saw zero jail time whatsoever, only probation. One is serving a two year sentence. All 9 were convicted of the acts via DNA evidence, the victim’s testimony, and due to the perpetrators videotaping the crimes and sharing that evidence on WhatsApp and other social media platforms. The woman who was convicted will reportedly spend several days in jail for sending allegedly hateful messages to the WhatsApp number that was disclosed as public record during the initial series of trials.
AC: Though this case is largely more of a social or cultural concern, the means by which authorities are conducting themselves is worthy note for many nations today. Operationally speaking, the crackdown on outrage and dissent being prosecuted more heavily than the capital crimes themselves means that this situation (while largely specific to Germany at the moment) would be wise to consider as events unfold in other nations as well.
-HomeFront-
Arizona: A man was killed in Phoenix when trying to fix his wife’s stalled vehicle in a parking lot. While working on the vehicle, it slipped off of the jack, crushing him. AC: Though a tragic accident, the most disturbing element of the incident is that the victim’s corpse was reportedly violated by bystanders, who looted everything from the dying man’s pockets and from the vehicle that crushed him. Looters also stole an additional vehicle at the scene (also owned by the victim). The victim’s body remained pinned under the vehicle for approximately 2 hours, until other bystanders eventually called the authorities.
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Analyst Comments: Adding even more gasoline to the fire in Ukraine, An American RQ-4B Global Hawk reconnaissance drone was flying over the Black Sea (and without question collecting intelligence on the Russian naval base in Sevastopol) at the time of the strike. As a reminder, the Global Hawk platform, while entirely capable of providing targeting data, is not really the best platform for the task of kinetic targeting. More than likely the American drone was conducting a routine flight over the Black Sea, as has become common during the past few years. Though it is unlikely to be observed by any party at this point, it’s entirely possible that the American drone was in the wrong place at the wrong time, and therefore the United States finds itself in the diplomatically precarious situation of being guilty by association. It’s also possible that Ukraine, desperate beyond all measure for U.S. support, waited until a routine drone flight was in the air to launch the strike…knowing the Russia would finger the U.S. for being associated with the targeting of civilians. In any case, the situation both abroad and overseas has progressed to the point that minute details likely do not matter as much as they used to. Russia will point the finger at the U.S. for the attack, with quite a bit of legitimate justification as the data gathered by the U.S. and shared with the Ukrainians likely directly resulted in the strike in the first place (even if the American drone in the area at the time was not directly involved with designating targets at the time of the strike). The U.S. has of course denied the claims of direct involvement with Ukrainian targeting.
Regardless of the details, Russia now has carte blanche to make the statement that the U.S. has yet again become more directly involved in the expansion of the conflict. Russia likewise now would be well justified (within international norms) in the arming of adversaries of the United States, as Russia has hinted at recently. Considering the growing list of groups hostile to American citizens, including those already inside the United States, the means by which Russia could apply pressure to the United States could vary widely.
Analyst: S2A1
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