The Wire - June 14, 2024

//The Wire//1800Z June 14, 2024//
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//BLUF: HOUTHI TARGETING AGAIN INTENSIFIES IN THE RED SEA. SAUDI CROWN PRINCE CANCELS ATTENDANCE OF G7 SUMMIT. PUTIN PUBLICIZES TERMS OF POTENTIAL UKRAINE PEACE TALKS.//
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-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting increases with two major incidents occurring over the past few days. Yesterday, three ASCMs successfully targeted the M/V VERBENA in the Gulf of Aden, causing severe damage. CENTCOM confirmed that at least one crew member was medically evacuated from the VERBENA due to wounds sustained during the attack.
On Wednesday, Houthi forces successfully targeted the M/V TUTOR, a Greek-flagged cargo vessel (carrying coal) in the Red Sea. This attack was carried out via an Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) and resulted in the TUTOR sustaining severe damage to the engine room. Per the latest reports, the vessel is experiencing severe flooding, and is reportedly not under command at this time. However, her current status remains unclear.
AC: These attacks come as a Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report was released yesterday confirming that maritime traffic through the Red Sea has decreased by approximately 90% since Houthi targeting began.
Middle East: Tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia quietly increase following various diplomatic slights over the past few weeks. Last week, the 1974 petrodollar agreement between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. allegedly expired, with no replacement treaty scheduled to take effect. AC: While the 1974 agreement is legitimate, it’s not clear as to if a 50-year expiration date is indeed contained within the text of the agreement. Regardless of the formalization of such a specific expiration date, the opportunity not being taken to renew Saudi-US relations during such a critical time in both nation’s histories speaks volumes.
Notwithstanding the formalization of such poor relations, the Saudis have been trading in oil using non-USD currencies for some time now (most famously including the recent unconfirmed claims of OPEC shifting to the Chinese Yuan). This recent diplomatic spat continues the already apparent shift in the diplomatic status between the two nations, and probably will result in more OPEC+ member states shifting away from the United States and more favorably in the direction of BRICS+.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia has more directly signaled increasing dissatisfaction with the U.S. via Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) abruptly canceling his attendance of the G7 summit currently underway in Italy. AC: MBS was scheduled to be a critical attendee of the summit (as Italy seeks to improve relations with the Middle East, and court various trade agreements that have been in the works for months). However, he canceled his trip just a few hours before he was supposed to arrive in Rome, citing pressing duties to oversee the Hajj season (which is a poorly-camouflaged excuse, as his attendance is not required for this holiday season, which has likewise been scheduled for many months). This G7 summit would have been his first attendance as he increasingly takes over the duties of the Saudi empire.
Europe: In a televised press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly stated the conditions for a peace proposal in Ukraine.
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Analyst Comments: Though the publicity of Putin’s proposal may be surprising to some, this is probably Russia’s last warning before the summer offensive comes to fruition. Though Putin’s demands may seem unfair to the West (the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, along with dropping Ukraine’s NATO bid), Ukraine is almost certainly not in a position to offer much flexibility in negotiations (if they were to occur). Consequently, this may be the best deal Ukraine is likely to get. Despite the hubris of the highest order that has become standardized as NATO’s doctrine over the past few decades, a “forever war” requires an adversary that is also willing to engage in such…and Russia has routinely expressed her lack of interest toward this goal. As such, the reality of the war will likely become apparent to all parties very soon.
Analyst: S2A1
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