The Wire - June 3, 2024

//The Wire//1630Z June 3, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MEXICO ELECTS FIRST FEMALE PRESIDENT. GERMANY REINFORCES UKRAINE’S EXPANDED USE OF EXPORTED MUNITIONS.//
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-International Events-
Germany: The police officer (who’s name has not yet been released officially) wounded in the recent terror attack in Mannheim died of his wounds overnight. AC: The German government continues to censor the terrorist attack heavily, and has reportedly ordered footage of the attack to be removed from social media platforms.
In Berlin, the expected escalation of the war in Ukraine is underway, as insinuated by Major General Christian Freudig in a televised interview over the weekend. Speaking of the recent authorization of Germany to allow Ukraine to target sites within Russia with exported munitions, General Freudig stated that “It is quite conceivable that the 'Patriot' systems will now also be used in the Kharkiv area and about Russia. They are ideally suited to combat the Russian aircraft which can deploy the terrible glide bombs”.
Red Sea/HOA: Much debate remains following Houthi claims that they had successfully struck an American warship in the Red Sea, namely the USS EISENHOWER. No video evidence has been provided by the Houthis (who commonly claim to strike American warships in the region) to substantiate these claims. AC: Houthi forces regularly engage American warships at sea, but so far all missile and drone attacks have been intercepted successfully with regards to attacks directed at warships. Due to the limitations of the weapons systems currently fielded, it is challenging for US Navy ships to use their own defense systems to defend other ships not inside their Task Force (i.e. a cargo ship sailing many miles away). However, when it comes to shipborne defenses (particularly those of an aircraft carrier, with the combined defenses of the escorts) it’s not likely for Houthi forces to be successful in an attack with one or two missiles. However, perhaps making the information warfare situation worse, the Captain of the EISENHOWER posted a short video clip of aviation operations on his social media account on June 1st, after the alleged strike. Many social media watchers took this as an implication that the EISENHOWER suffered no damage…however the clip was from a few months ago. Consequently, many on social media (and various accounts linked to the CCP) have claimed that the US is covering up a successful strike with older video clips. However, it must be noted that the Captain of the EISENHOWER, like most senior military leadership, possesses a rather unique leadership and social media style which may be strange to a civilian audience, and is known to re-post older content frequently. Nothing about the recent re-post implied it was intended to serve as proof of an unsuccessful strike, however the poor timing of the incident caused more scrutiny of official Navy social media accounts than probably intended. This, combined with the recent announcement that the EISENHOWER’s deployment has been extended, casts doubt as to what the truth is. As to whether or not the Houthis met with success this time, there is no reliable information to indicate what really happened. Statistically speaking, it is only a matter of time before the Houthi’s get lucky and a major escalation in the region flares up again. However, the most likely form of success for the Houthis does not like with single-munition strikes against heavily defended vessels.
Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum has been elected President. She will begin her 6-year term on October 1. AC: Sheinbaum has raised much debate on immigration issues due to her socialist background, which strongly indicates that US/Mexico relations with regards to reconciling border issues likely will not occur anytime soon.
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Analyst Comments: Considering the range of Russian glide bombs (which varies significantly by release altitude and glide envelope, but most of which are well outside the effective range of Patriot systems) recent rhetoric from Western powers very strongly indicates that Ukraine will attempt to shoot down Russian aircraft inside Russian territory, if they wan. However, the implication of this statement is possibly more substantial considering the very short range of the Patriot missile system (publicly, around 40-60 miles, depending on missile variant, with a much shorter operationally effective defensive range). As such Ukraine would have to deploy Patriot systems on the border with Russia (or even inside Russia) in order to be effective, which is not militarily viable considering the observed high casualty rate of Patriot batteries.
It also must be noted that Germany, for the moment, has denied the export of German-made Taurus cruise missile systems which have been requested by Ukraine. Germany has specifically denied the export of certain German-made munitions for fears that exporting German-made weapons systems would draw Germany into the war more directly. As a result, Germany has authorized the export of the American made weapons that Germany had previously purchased.
Analyst: S2A1
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