Why Kaliningrad Will be Ukraine 2.0

#themilitaryshow #Lithuania #Ukraine
To the outside world, Kaliningrad is simply a part of Russia 🌍. But change is brewing in this western exclave. From a strategic military hub 🛡️ to a potential flashpoint for conflict ⚔️, Kaliningrad's future hangs in the balance. Could it become Ukraine 2.0? 🇺🇦 Dive into Kaliningrad’s complex history and evolving geopolitical significance in our latest video.
#Kaliningrad #Russia #Geopolitics #Ukraine #BalticStates #NATO #Military #History #Conflict #Europe #WorldWarIII #BalticSea #Lithuania #Independence #Putin #Poland
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To the outside world, Kaliningrad is simply a part of Russia. It’s the country’s furthest
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western exclave, meaning it’s essentially Putin’s gateway to the rest of Europe
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and – before the war in Ukraine – it was home to a substantial Russian military presence.
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But the winds of change are blowing in Kaliningrad.
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The region is evolving from being an important part of Russia – especially
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in terms of its access to the Baltic Sea – into the potential catalyst for
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a war that may engulf the Baltic states and, by extension, the rest of Europe.
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Kaliningrad is on the verge of becoming Ukraine 2.0.
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And, as with any sequel, the possibility is that the fight over and in Kaliningrad could be bigger,
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scarier, and more all-encompassing than the battle in Ukraine has been so far.
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At its worst, Kaliningrad could become the unwitting trigger for World War III.
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How? That’s
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the question we aim to answer in this video. But before we dive into what makes Kaliningrad
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such an important scrap of territory, it’s worth learning a little more about what it is and,
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crucially, what it represents to Russia. Kaliningrad’s history dates back to 1255 and
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the rise of the Teutonic Order. In their quest to Christianize as much of Europe as possible,
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that order took the territory that would become Kaliningrad as part of the Baltic Crusades. Naming
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it Konigsberg, the territory soon became home to thousands of German settlers, who spent the
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next few centuries setting up in Konigsberg and establishing it as a separate state.
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Still, that state had a heavy Germanic influence, meaning it was never truly independent. And that
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lack of independence was exacerbated by the outbreak of World War I in 1914. Konigsberg was
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essentially absorbed into East Prussia during this period, with Germany maintaining direct control
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over the region throughout both World Wars. That’s where the Soviet Union comes into play.
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After the Soviet Union played its part in defeating the Axis powers and ending World War II,
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it took part in the creation of the Potsdam Agreement. That agreement set new territorial
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boundaries within Europe, with Konigsberg officially passing into Soviet hands. With
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1946 came annexation and the region being split between Poland, Lithuania,
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and Russia – the former also being under full or partial Soviet control at the time – and
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it was rechristened Kaliningrad in honor of the former head of the Soviet state Mikhail Kalinin.
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For the next 45 years, Kaliningrad essentially functioned as an exclave of the Soviet Union.
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The region was turned into an “oblast” – an administrative division of the Soviet Union and,
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later, Russia – and Moscow banned access to the territory for foreigners. The collapse of the
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Soviet Union brought with it new possibilities for Kaliningrad, though any hopes of it becoming
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an independent territory were soon dashed when Moscow retained its control over the
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exclave. It retained its position as an oblast, with control of the region proving crucial to
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Russia. Not only could Kaliningrad serve as its furthest Western territory in Europe,
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potentially leading to it serving a diplomatic purpose, but it also gave Moscow
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access to warm water ports during the winter. However, the separation between Kaliningrad
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and Russia started to become problematic. Kaliningrad is around 676 miles away from Moscow,
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and it’s separated from Russia by both Lithuania and Poland, which encircle the territory.
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Everything that Russia does in Kaliningrad must go through one of those two countries – usually
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Lithuania – first. It has access to the water thanks to its ports in St. Petersburg. But as
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those ports regularly freeze over during the winter, that access is somewhat restricted,
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often leaving Russia reliant on the cooperation of other countries to access Kaliningrad.
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Therein lies a problem for Moscow, as well as a hint toward one of the reasons why Kaliningrad
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is on the verge of becoming Ukraine 2.0. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union,
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Kaliningrad has operated as a “special economic zone” in which there are no import duties and
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extremely low taxes. That has allowed it to build economic ties with other European countries,
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including the Baltic states. It’s still heavily reliant on Moscow – 100 trains passed through
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Lithuania every month to supply Kaliningrad before the outbreak of the Ukraine war – but it also
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operates somewhat independently of Russia itself. That near-independence leads us to the
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first reason why Kaliningrad is gearing up to become Ukraine 2.0:
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Many in the territory want it to become its own state.
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That was made clear during the “National Online Referendum on Self-Determination of
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National Republics.” Held between February 16 and February 28, 2023, the referendum was an online
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poll organized by several activist groups located both within and outside of Russian territory. Its
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results were unofficial. Russia would never approve of such a poll as even the concept of
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one of its oblasts wanting to gain independence is a potential sign of Russia’s disintegration
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in the mind of President Vladimir Putin. Still, it happened – despite attempts to
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shut it down – and the results showed a clear design for independence inside Kaliningrad:
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A staggering 72.1% of the voters said they wanted freedom compared to just 27.9% who
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said they wanted to remain a part of Russia. Again, this was an unofficial poll, meaning
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it doesn’t trigger anything that could lead to Kaliningrad actually gaining its independence.
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But it offers a clear answer to what some analysts dub the “Kaliningrad Question.” That
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question is simple – what happens to Kaliningrad now that it’s essentially isolated from Russia
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thanks to the Baltic states surrounding it not only becoming independent, but also
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becoming members of the European Union, or EU? The poll result is just the latest demonstration
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of the strength of a growing movement within Kaliningrad for the region to cut its ties with
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Russia. And it exemplifies the feeling of many within the territory that it is essentially “an
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island” that is not only cut off from Russia but also hindered in its efforts to build stronger
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relationships within Europe because of its ties to Moscow. That’s the opinion of Alexei Chabounine –
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a journalist with a Kaliningrad news website named Russian West – who points out that those in the
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region who love Russia have always felt isolated. But now, with the outbreak of war in Ukraine,
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“there is a general feeling of being locked in.” That feeling is exacerbated by the fact that
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Russia has been more than happy to call on Kaliningrad’s citizens to fight in Ukraine.
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According to the military newspaper Stars and Stripes, 5,000 of the 1 million people who live
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in Kaliningrad had been called up by December 2023, with 450 losing their lives. Outwardly,
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the exclave has also been supporting Russia’s war effort by providing clothes, camouflage nets,
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and quadcopters, in addition to providing a large portion of its 2024 budget to fund the war effort.
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But privately, Chabounine says, most in the region just want it all to be over. “People
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try to avoid the topic of the special military operation. They try to live like before.” He also
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points to a lack of trust in the region’s authorities, pointing out that many don’t
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believe their leaders when they say they will defend Kaliningrad from being overrun if Russia
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declares war on the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Instead, they believe the
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exclave will be turned into rubble – undefended unless it’s able to free itself from Russia and
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ally with the countries around it. We start to see a clear parallel
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between Kaliningrad and Ukraine here. Like Kaliningrad, Ukraine used to be under
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Soviet control. It was part of the Soviet Union for around 70 years before its 1991 collapse.
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After that, Ukraine gained its independence. Kaliningrad didn’t.
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And if Ukraine’s independence – and Russia’s desire to reclaim
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the territory – was a trigger for the crisis we’re seeing today, Kaliningrad’s desire for
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independence could serve the same purpose. Should the exclave free itself from Russia,
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it might only be a matter of time before Putin, or whoever comes after him, attempts to reclaim it.
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Of course, it’s not just Kaliningrad causing problems here.
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Lithuania will also play a role in Kaliningrad becoming Ukraine 2.0.
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Earlier, we discussed how Kaliningrad is essentially locked away from Russia,
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with Lithuania having served as Moscow’s main point of access for decades. That wasn’t a
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problem before the Ukraine crisis – Russia was generally able to ensure
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the travel of both citizens and cargo through Lithuania and into Kaliningrad without issue.
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The war changed all of that. As a response to Russia’s actions,
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Lithuania has repeatedly banned Russian travel through its territory. Its parliament voted
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to impose the Law on Imposing Restrictive Measures Regarding the Military Aggression
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Against Ukraine in 2023, creating a year-long ban on most Russian citizens from gaining visas
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to enter the country. That law was extended in April 2024 to run for at least another year,
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meaning Russia won’t have ground-based access to Kaliningrad until, at best, May 2, 2025.
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Lithuania has also happily participated in the sanctions imposed on Russia since the outbreak
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of the war. It’s a clear supporter of Ukraine – it has provided about $500 million in financial aid
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to the country since February 2022 – and it has its own history with Russia. Like Ukraine before
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it, and Kaliningrad currently, Lithuania also fell under the Soviet yolk in the wake of World War II,
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only gaining its independence upon the collapse of the Soviet Union.
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In essence, it – along with the other Baltic states – has established itself as a clear
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enemy of Russia and Putin’s aggressive tactics in Ukraine. It has also restricted access to
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Kaliningrad by preventing Russians from traveling to the oblast via land. They
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instead have to rely on a seaborne route from St. Petersburg, which is affected
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by the cold temperatures mentioned earlier. In the context of Kaliningrad becoming Ukraine
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2.0, Lithuania’s actions present two issues. First, they serve to further isolate Kaliningrad
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from Russia, which may have an interesting impact on the oblast’s population. After all, there’s
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already a clear and growing pro-independence movement. Given that Kaliningrad is supported
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directly by Russia, that movement could grow even larger as conditions deteriorate in the oblast.
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Its residents might increasingly feel that the prospect of essentially becoming a fourth Baltic
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state would serve it better. At least then, it would be able to expand its relationships in
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Europe, perhaps to the point where it follows Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia in becoming a
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member of the EU and NATO. There’s a major upside for Kaliningrad here, especially as Lithuania’s
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sanctions and travel restrictions on Russia begin to cause more problems in the region.
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Second, Lithuania has angered Russia with this move, raising the possibility
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of Russia declaring war on it – and the other Baltic states – in response. That
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would lead to a somewhat indirect Ukraine 2.0 situation. Russia wouldn’t be declaring war on
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Kaliningrad. It already owns the region. But it would declare war on the country that’s
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preventing it from accessing that territory, potentially bringing the other Baltic nations
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into the fight and – due to Lithuania’s NATO membership – creating a wider global conflict.
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All over Kaliningrad. It’s also worth expanding on this concept
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of Kaliningrad becoming the fourth Baltic state. That’s essentially what would happen if it were to
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gain independence from Russia. And some countries are already treating the region as an independent
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territory, at least in name. Countries like Poland.
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In May 2023, Poland decided that it would no longer refer to Kaliningrad by that name in any
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of its official documentation. Instead, it’ll call the region Królewiec – the name it had
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when it was ruled by the Kingdom of Poland during the 15th and 16th centuries. That decision adds a
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further wrinkle to the tale. Some could argue that this appears to be a direct act of aggression by
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Poland, with the name change suggesting it might have designs on claiming Kaliningrad as its own.
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That isn’t the case, at least according to the country’s Development Minister Waldermar Buda,
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who says the decision was made to prevent “Russification” in Poland.
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“We do not want Russification in Poland, and that is why we have decided to change the name
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in our native language of Kaliningrad and the Kaliningrad region,” he said
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when explaining Poland’s decision. Either way – Russia is furious.
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The Kremlin described the decision as a “hostile act,” likely because it
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clearly serves as an indirect question of Russia’s control over Kaliningrad. Again,
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we see fuel being poured onto the fire of the oblast’s independence movement. After all,
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if one country is willing to recognize Kaliningrad as a separate entity – even in name only – there’s
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a chance that others could follow suit. That’s the last thing that Putin wants.
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So, we have several reasons why Kaliningrad could become Ukraine 2.0 in the coming years.
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The growing independence movement in the oblast represents a clear threat to Moscow
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that Putin will want to put down. Lithuania and its decision to restrict Russian travel
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through its territory isolate Moscow further from Kaliningrad, perhaps feeding into the
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region’s independence movement while angering Putin. Then there’s Poland’s naming decision – a
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“hostile act” that only feeds into the idea of Kaliningrad becoming an independent region.
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Now, let’s switch focus to another issue: The Baltic fleet.
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We’ve already touched on one of the reasons why Kaliningrad is such an important territory for
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Russia. The oblast’s port city Baltiysk is the only port Russia has on the Baltic
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Sea that doesn’t ice over when winter comes. It’s where Russia stations its Baltic fleet.
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In 2008 – the most recent year for which we have figures – that fleet numbered 55 combat ships of
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varying types. These included several destroyers, corvettes, and frigates, along with landing ships
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and a pair of submarines. The fleet roughly represents about a tenth of Russia’s entire
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naval power, and it needs constant support in terms of resources and personnel to be effective.
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Enter Lithuania’s decision to ban Russians from traveling through its territory again.
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Not only does that decision hinder Russia from delivering supplies to the people, but it also
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has an impact on the Baltic fleet stationed at the oblast. Again, we point to St. Petersburg and the
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fact that its ports ice over in the winter. When that happens, the Baltic fleet is essentially
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cut off from Moscow, ending up stuck in the only warm water port that Russia has in the Baltic Sea.
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Worse yet for Russia, being cut off from Kaliningrad reduces its ability to keep
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control over the Baltic Sea. That’s especially the case now that Finland – another old rival of
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Russia’s – has become a NATO member. With that membership granted, NATO has extended its own
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border along the Baltic Sea, leading some to start calling the small stretch of water a “NATO lake.”
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A lake that NATO could use to even further isolate Kaliningrad from Russia.
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What does that have to do with Ukraine? Russia found itself in a similar situation
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with Ukraine several years before it invaded the country.
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As Kaliningrad is host to the Baltic Fleet, so too was Sevastopol home to the Black Sea
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Fleet further south. Sevastopol is in the Crimean region, which created a problem
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for Russia when the Soviet Union collapsed. Crimea went to Ukraine, with Kyiv then potentially
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having a claim over the former Soviet Union’s Black Sea Fleet. Russia wasn’t about to hand over
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a large chunk of its navy to a country that was now independent of it, resulting in a compromise
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being reached in 1997 – The Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet.
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Under that treaty, nine out of every 11 ships in the Black Sea Fleet were given back to Russia,
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with the remaining two staying with Ukraine. While that may seem to be a bad deal for
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Ukraine – because it was – the country was strapped for cash at the time of the treaty’s
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signing. So, in return for this lopsided deal, Russia promised to pay Ukraine $526 million.
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However, there was something that Russia wanted even more than the ships.
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The Sevastopol base in which the Black Sea Fleet was docked.
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Russia couldn’t buy that base outright. It was part of Ukraine. But it could rent the base
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from Ukraine, giving it access to another crucial warm water port while also ensuring its Black Sea
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Fleet actually had access to the sea that gave it the name. Russia inked another deal with Ukraine,
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this time promising to pay $97 million per year to rent the base, while at the same
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time promising the respect the sovereignty and independence of the new Ukrainian state.
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We all know how that worked out. But why did we get to the
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point where Russia invaded Ukraine? The simple answer is that Russia had a problem
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– its Sevastopol base lease wasn’t permanent. Toward the end of 2008, Putin found himself
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dealing with Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine’s president and prime
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minister respectively, and – crucially – both pro-West politicians. They announced that
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when 2017 arrived, Russia would have to leave Sevastopol, handing the base back to Ukraine.
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But there was another twist in the tale. In 2010, Yuschenko was ousted by Viktor
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Yanukovych, meaning the Ukrainian presidency was anti-West again. Wasting no time,
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Yanukovych extended Russia’s lease at Sevastopol until 2042, once again
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securing Russia’s access to the Black Sea. All was well for Russia again. Until…
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The 2014 Maidan Revolution saw Yanukovych flee Ukraine, placing the lease in danger once more.
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This time, Putin wasn’t going to sit back and take the potential loss of a valuable base. Instead,
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taking advantage of the chaos the revolution caused, he chose to annex Crimea – claiming
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Sevastopol as Russian territory in the process – and get rid of the whole leasing issue.
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It’s here where the parallels with Kaliningrad become clearer.
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When Russia annexed Crimea, Ukraine retaliated by blocking Russian land access to the Crimean
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Peninsula, thus preventing the country from transporting anything to its Black Sea Fleet
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by land. It’s almost a mirror image of what Lithuania has done to Russia in relation to
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the Baltic fleet. At first, Russia navigated around this restriction by ferrying troops
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and equipment into Sevastopol via the Kerch Strait. But that approach had limitations,
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resulting in Russia taking a second option: Construction of the Crimea Bridge.
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Opened in 2018, the bridge allows car, truck, and – in 2020 – freight rail passengers to access
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Sevastopol without having to worry about Ukraine’s land restrictions. Interestingly, we see the
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importance of that bridge in Russia’s movements throughout Ukraine since the war began. It has
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pushed south heavily toward Mariupol because it needs that land to complete the Crimea Bridge.
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The importance of this bridge is also the reason why Ukraine has targeted it numerous times.
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It has already launched two attacks against the bridge, with an April 2024
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report published in The Guardian suggesting that a third attack is inevitable. Taking out
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that bridge would force Russia to transport its war supplies through southern Ukraine,
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perhaps hindering Moscow’s forces on the ground by slowing down their access to supplies.
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But let’s bring things back to the situation in Kaliningrad.
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Right now, Russia faces a similar problem to the one it dealt with when it took Crimea. It
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owns the land, but it doesn’t have access to it. And in the case of Kaliningrad,
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it can’t get around that lack of access by building a new bridge. It needs to go through
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Lithuania – a country that has imposed heavy sanctions on Russia due to the war in Ukraine.
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Perhaps Putin might decide that the only way to regain full access to Kaliningrad
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would be to take Lithuania, getting rid of the sanctions issue in the process.
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And make no mistake – Russia wants to keep control of Kaliningrad. Not only is it the site of the
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Baltic fleet, but it’s also home to several of Russia’s Iskander missiles. Those missiles
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are capable of carrying nuclear payloads. Given Kaliningrad’s positioning – remember that it’s
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the furthest Russian territory that reaches into Europe – Putin will want to maintain
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access simply so he can use Kaliningrad to make nuclear threats, should he need to.
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Still, there’s one saving grace that might prevent Putin from launching any attacks
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against Lithuania that would restore its access to Kaliningrad akin to the annexation of Crimea:
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Lithuania is a member of NATO. That membership means that Lithuania
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benefits from Article 5 of the NATO charter, which says that any attack on a NATO member’s land
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is considered an attack on all NATO members. It’s the three musketeers’ principle – all for one and
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one for all – expanded to a global scale. If Putin were to attack Lithuania, it wouldn’t
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just be Lithuania that he would have to fight. He would drag the United Kingdom into the war.
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France. Germany. Latvia and Estonia – Lithuania’s Baltic neighbors – and, most importantly,
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the United States. None of those countries have directly intervened in the war in Ukraine
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because Ukraine isn’t a NATO member. They’ve been limited to sending money and supplies.
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But if Russia launched an attack on Lithuania, they’re duty-bound to respond militaristically,
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which could ignite a third World War. So, the Kaliningrad situation
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rests on a knife edge. It’s still Russian territory,
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with that fact being unlikely to change even though the independence movement within the
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exclave is growing stronger by the month. It also offers disturbing parallels to Ukraine,
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particularly in the sense of how Kaliningrad mirrors the issues Russia had with the Sevastopol
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base in terms of land access. Moscow is even having to deal with some countries – Poland key
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among them – starting to treat Kaliningrad somewhat like an independent state.
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But there are key factors that might stay Putin’s hand.
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NATO is the obvious one. Russia likely doesn’t have the appetite for a global war that would
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draw in its strongest enemy, making it unlikely that he would attempt to take Lithuania to restore
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ground access to Kaliningrad. Then, there’s the uncertainty over the Ukraine war – and what its
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aftermath might look like – to consider. If Russia wins, would it then be able to rebuild
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its relationships with the Baltic states to the point where free travel to Kaliningrad is
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in its reach once more? Only time will tell.
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For now, we’ll turn things over to you. How important a role do you believe Kaliningrad
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will play in global geopolitics in the years to come? Do you think Putin would risk starting
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another World War – turning Kaliningrad into Ukraine 2.0 – just to restore land-based access
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to his Baltic fleet? Let us know what you think in the comments and thank you for watching the video.
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Now go check out Why Russia Will Lose Kaliningrad or click this other video instead!