David Murrin: War Equals Massive Inflation

In this Palisades interview, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back hosts global forecaster David Murin to delve into the differences between lateral and linear thinking in the context of current world conflicts. Murin posits that empires cycle through phases of thinking, with laterals leading initially and linears taking control as empires mature. He attributes the current global climate to an unprecedented level of linear thinking due to sophisticated money printing over the past two decades, which has left societies inflexible to dynamic threats.

Murin further discusses geopolitical implications, particularly regarding the Houthis' actions in the Red Sea and its significance for American maritime hegemony. He raises concerns about China's involvement and advanced military capabilities, emphasizing the importance of maintaining control over critical sea lanes for wealth and resource extraction.

Murin believes historical cycles of war could have been avoided with greater awareness and full-spectrum deterrence, aligning with the 112-year contractive cycle that has led to hegemonic conflicts throughout history.

David also shares his views on China's strategic intentions and resource acquisitions, arguing that China is not primarily concerned with wartime resource gathering but rather denying resources to the West. He points to Argentina as an example where Chinese interests were rejected, giving the West a foothold in the region. Murin suggests Western engagement and political activism are necessary for regime change in countries with autocratic regimes.

He uses numerous price-based systems to understand various markets and sectors, predicting a decline in bond prices and increased inflation for commodities due to excess demand from fiat money. David sees the current situation as a commodity supercycle that affects the entire commodities complex and causes inflation for all physical resources. War contributes to inflation during these cycles. Murin warns of impending wars, emphasizing the importance of adapting and strong leadership in response to threats.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:02 - Types of Thinking
6:20 - Shipping & Shrinking Empire
12:40 - Inevitable Conflict?
16:07 - China Growth & Cycles
20:37 - The Art of War
24:12 - BRICS & China
26:33 - Fentanyl Problem
28:10 - Results of Energy Tariffs
31:33 - Inflation & Central Banks
36:48 - Models & Mkt. Behavior
38:32 - Bond Markets & Gold
42:40 - War & Inflation
43:53 - Important Developments
46:00 - War is Upon Us
49:01 - U.S. Navy & Defense
52:30 - Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode
- Empires cycle through lateral and linear thinking phases, with current global climate characterized by unprecedented linear thinking due to sophisticated money printing.
- Geopolitical implications include challenges to American maritime hegemony in the Red Sea and China's potential denial of resources to the West.
- Historical cycles indicate ongoing hegemonic conflicts and the importance of full-spectrum deterrence, with impending wars requiring quick adaptation and strong leadership.

Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastr
Website: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/
Lateral Vs Linear Thought: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_v5720RPmw&t=636s

David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.

In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.

In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm's private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014.

David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focusing on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns including deep-seated patterns in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today's turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record.

Davids advisory and future trends speaking are based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.

In the desire to share his observations and predictive constructs, David has written four books.