But only half of murders are cleared! #DemocratCrimeWave

Many #BlackLivesMatter carnival barkers dismiss the mountain of evidence supporting the statement “Blacks tend to murder blacks at a rate much higher than any other ethnic group” w/ the talking point that about half of all murders (actually about 58%, but it has dropped in recent years) aren’t solved, thus it’s likely (?) that if we solved the other half it would be old Asian men committing them. I seriously doubt that, it’s just a talking point pulled out of the nether regions of someone who likely has their head up in there too. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/10/27/what-we-know-about-the-increase-in-u-s-murders-in-2020/ https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/tables/table-25 https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/topic-pages/tables/table-25 https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2017/crime-in-the-u.s.-2017/topic-pages/tables/table-25 https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/table-17 https://www.statista.com/statistics/194213/crime-clearance-rate-by-type-in-the-us/

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Keep in mind, “clearing” a murder & solving it are two different things, keep reading. https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/clearances [X] See the X at the end.

https://www.murderdata.org/p/blog-page.html This is an interesting page I stumbled upon & it puts the national clearance rate 2016-22 at 56.25%, close to my calculations using FBI & other data. The rate from 2010-2015 was 61.15%, according to The Murder Accountability Project (MAP). That is a bit lower than if you look at FBI data from that time, which was (excluding 2013, the page was MIA) 63.62%.

Let us look at some jurisdictions (some Democrat-leaning, some GOP-leaning, some w/ stratospheric murder rates, some w/ low murder rates, but I will start w/ high murder areas) & see how this plays out. Do some of the most violent places in America that have a lot of gangland murders see a lower clearance rate because Gang Banger A is not going to report Gang Banger B for killing his brother, who killed someone else the month before?

https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend Let’s start with the Great State of Iowa, land of cornfields, land of people who actually work, land of people who don’t fantasize about changing their gender to female so they can watch little girls in the women’s restroom, land of gunowners, hog farmers, truckers, & wrestlers that kick ass!

I am going to focus my investigation on 2016-22 & that’s because I already elucidated data (courtesy of the FBI) on the demographics of murder victims & their assailants, comparing 2016-19 to to 2020-21. The Fentanyl Floyd Riots were bad for black people because a lot more of them got murdered, but don’t worry -- #BlackLivesMatter to Democrats! https://rumble.com/v2s3mpk-charlie-kirk-subdues-blacklivesmatter-and-whitesupremacy.html

If you want data on some of the most murderous areas in America see https://rumble.com/v4d9s0f-creepy-old-man-sam-seder-is-worried-about-guns-his-voters-are-the-problem-p.html I am going to include those jurisdictions, most of them Democrat-leaning & if one or more is omitted, it’s a lack of data that caused it to be excluded.

We’ll start w/ the home of Black Hawk County, Iowa Supervisor Chris Schwartz, who is so fat if he ever went jogging, hot dogs & crackers would fall out of his fat rolls. Remember, the FBI data may differ from the local PD or state data & in a year or so a few murders that went cold could be solved!

Some cities are missing data for certain years, I will still tabulate the total regardless.

Let us begin w/ Waterloo, Iowa, the murder capital of the Hawkeye State: From 2016-22, (18 of 41) 43.9% of murders cleared.

Fort Dodge, Iowa (all time frames are 2016-22): 84.61% (11 of 13) of all murders cleared

Minneapolis, MN: 56.09% (230 of 410) 56.09% murders cleared

St. Paul, MN: (155 of 189) 82.01% of murders cleared. According to MAP, MN cleared 74.43% of its murders statewide (2016-22). https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/YJ7QY2XJY

Los Angeles, California: (1295 of 1828) 70.84% of murders cleared

Compton, CA: (30 of 133) 22.55%

Stockton, CA: (141 of 308) 45.77%

Oakland, CA: (239 of 525) 45.52%. According to MAP, CA statewide cleared 59.94% of its murders https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/BFNZN84JD

Milwaukee, Wisconsin: (596 of 1,057) 56.38%

Wilmington, Delaware: (60 of 191) 31.41%. DE cleared 51.76% of its murders, according to MAP https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/5JGDF3Y5W

Cleveland, Ohio: (129 of 895) 14.41%

Akron, OH: (143 of 266) 53.75%

Toledo, OH: (209 of 334) 62.57%

Dayton, OH: (160 of 274) 58.39%

Cincinnati, OH: (269 of 514) 52.33%

Columbus, OH: (371 of 951) 39.01%

Youngstown, OH: (17 of 113) 15.04% MAP states OH cleared only 39.85% of its murders https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/TTHKGC929

Shelby County Sheriff, Memphis City, Millington City, Collierville City & Bartlett City: (726 of 1,714) 42.35% (The vast majority of this is Memphis City)

Nashville, Tennessee: (376 of 664) 56.62%

Knoxville, TN: (79 of 200) 39.5%

Chattanooga, TN: (98 of 204) 48.03% MAP gives TN a statewide clearance rate of 55.59% https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/F4FT4CDQ5 As you can see, the clearance rate in TN outside of these Democrat war zones is much, much higher.

Chicago, Illinois (no FBI data): Murder Accountability Project (1,859 of 4,793) pegs it at 38.79%. IL statewide (MAP) only cleared 31.39% of its murders. Outside Chicago they do even worse. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/TB8MGC63Z https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/KXM9X4WHQ

St. Louis City, Missouri: (616 of 1,436) 42.89%

Kansas City, MO: (635 of 1,076) 59.01%

Albuquerque, New Mexico: (161 of 606) 26.56%. According to the Murder Accountability Project, NM only cleared 35.12% of its murders. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/SYN5MZR5W

Birmingham, Alabama: (157 of 494) 31.78%

Mobile City, AL: (146 of 220) 66.36%

Montgomery County Sheriff & Montgomery City, AL (a serious dearth of data for the latter): (18 of 119) 15.12%.

52.45% of AL’s murders (2016-22, MAP) were cleared. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/8ZQ2ZN9PZ

Detroit, Michigan: (911 of 2,047) 44.5% -- According to MAP, MI statewide only clears 47.34% of all murders. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/BS6962P4Z

Grand Rapids, MI: (27 of 103) 26.21%

Lansing, MI: (59 of 105) 56.19%

Pontiac, MI: (65 of 85) 76.47%

Flint, MI: (18 of 251) 7.17%

Kalamazoo City, MI: (32 of 71) 45.07%

Saginaw City, MI: (32 of 109) 29.35%

Atlanta, Georgia: (472 of 733) FBI says 64.39%, MAP says 64.17%, I think their data is good. MAP says GA statewide cleared only 55.45% of its murders, https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/GW23PYD5Z 2016-22 & Fulton County en masse cleared 61.06%.

East Point, GA: (9 of 76) 11.84%

College Park, GA: (40 of 52) 76.92%

Douglas County Sheriff & Douglasville City, GA: (15 of 54) 27.77%

Bibb County/Macon, GA: (86 of 243) 35.39%

Albany/Dougherty County, GA: (89 of 115) 77.39%

Savannah/Chatham County: GA: (125 of 190, missing a year of data) 65.78%

Peoria City, Illinois: I think their data is bad, they cannot be that inept at clearing murders. MAP has the same abysmally low clearance rate. There are a number of cities in IL (MAP has basically the same data) that cleared no murders from 2016-20 (or even years prior) & then suddenly had some clearances in 2021 & 2022. Odd indeed, perhaps this is why their reported clearance rate is so low. They will not be included in the final tally.

Rockford, IL: (84 of 147) 57.14%

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: (1,139 of 2,688) 42.37%. I would wager the vast majority of uncleared murders were committed by Blacks & would thus make Philly a bigger problem for black-on-black murder.

Pittsburgh, PA: (196 of 313) 62.61%

Harrisburg, PA (50 of 90) 55.55% -- Statewide for PA, MAP reports a 53.8% clearance rate. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/NC5BYWNMT

Houston, Texas: (1,200 of 2,450) 48.97%

Dallas, TX: (717 of 1,305) 54.94%

San Antonio, TX: (505 of 1,011) 49.95%

Fort Worth, TX: (396 of 587) 67.46%

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma: (323 of 494) 65.38%

Tulsa, OK: (335 of 445) 75.28% -- MAP says OK Statewide cleared 60.42% of their murders. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/NGXQJHZ2F

Seattle, Washington: (112 of 245) 45.71%, Seattle’s clearance rate from 2020-22 cratered BIGLY. They thinned the ranks of their police, demonized them & their murder rate went skyward during the Fentanyl Floyd Riots. Ergo, if someone you love gets murdered in Seattle, don’t count on it getting solved.

Tacoma, WA: (106 of 158) 67.08%, another city that has seen their clearance rate suffer in the wake of the Fentanyl Floyd riots.

Spokane, WA: (50 of 85) 58.82%

Auburn, WA: (1 of 44) 2.27% MAP has the exact same data & if it’s accurate, that is an astounding rate of failure. YIKES!

MAP says 57.69% of WA murders statewide were cleared https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/3CJY6NB74

Portland, Oregon: (154 of 330) 46.66%. The police have been neutered there & the inmates are running the asylum. From 2019-22, their clearance rate started falling rapidly. 58.5% (MAP) was OR’s Statewide clearance rate from 2016-22. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/TZSBNNZY6

Charlotte/Mecklenburg County, North Carolina: (470 of 633) 74.24%. According to MAP, NC Statewide cleared 66.42% of its murders. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/G2KYKQT8Q

Greensboro, NC: (153 of 316) 48.41%

Durham City, NC: (122 of 249) 48.99%

Winston-Salem, NC: (83 of 195) 42.56%

Fayetteville, NC: (139 of 212) 65.56%

Asheville, NC (29 of 66) 43.93%

Wilmington, NC: (77 of 97) 79.38%

High Point, NC: (78 of 112) 69.64%

Greenville, NC: (33 of 42) 78.57%

Edgecombe County Sheriff, Rocky Mount City & Tarboro City, NC: (67 of 127) 52.75%

Charleston City, South Carolina: (60 of 77) 77.92%. MAP Pegs SC’s Statewide clearance rate (2016-22) at 66%. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/P2GQ62XKZ

North Charleston, SC: (141 of 218) 64.67%

Columbia, SC: (78 of 117) 66.66%

Spartanburg City & Spartanburg County Sheriff, SC: (67 of 135) 49.62%

Orangeburg City & Orangeburg County Sheriff, SC: (61 of 119) 51.26%

Rock Hill, SC: (29 of 51) 56.86%

Sumter City, SC: (37 of 42) 88.09%

Indianapolis, Indiana: (492 of 1,280) 38.43%, MAP says Statewide, IN cleared only 40.38% of their murders. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/9FDTPJ22B

Gary, IN: (12 of 240) 5%, but only 2016-20 data. MAP says 12.54% from 2016-22 (44 of 351), Gary has a lot of issues clearing murders.

Fort Wayne, IN: (143 of 250) 57.2%

South Bend, IN: (32 of 87) 36.78%

Muncie, IN: (9 of 40) 22.5%

Kansas City, Kansas: FBI has no data & even MAP is no help on this one. https://www.kckpd.org/Department/Annual-Report So, I went to the KCPD site & from 2017-21 they “solved” (their words) 75% (168 of 224) of all murders.

Statewide, KS solved 64.32% of all murders from 2016-22, according to MAP. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/WWXXZHWS4

Topeka, KS: (68 of 101) 67.32%

Wichita, KS: (160 of 269) 59.47%

Jackson, Mississippi: (212 of 382) 55.49% & that is 2016-20 only. MAP says MS Statewide cleared 56.06% of all murders, 2016-22. Remember kids, a state that has very few murders could fail to clear half of them, but another area like MS could clear the same %, but they have so many more murders overall, it drags down the national clearance rate. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/BRH4T7PBB

Richmond City, Virginia: (206 of 446) 46.18%, MAP reports VA Statewide cleared 63.67% of its murders. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/S7W6XQ4XM

Petersburg, VA: (69 of 131) 52.67%

Roanoke City, VA: (65 of 103) 63.1%

Hampton, VA: (56 of 140) 40%

Newport News, VA: (104 of 191) 54.45%

Portsmouth, VA: (93 of 182) 51.09%

Norfolk, VA: (164 of 331) 49.54%

Danville, VA: (50 of 68) 73.52%

Louisville, Kentucky: (367 of 907) 40.46%

MAP reports that KY statewide cleared (2016-22) 57.68% of its murders https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/TKMKDRCM8

Lexington, KY: (128 of 199) 64.32%

Buffalo, NY: (123 of 383) 32.11%

MAP reports NY Statewide cleared (2016-22) 64.82% of its murders https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/FFHD7RYX5

Rochester, NY: (155 of 318) 48.74%

Syracuse, NY: (96 of 141) 68.08%

Albany, NY: (42 of 63) 66.66%

Niagara Falls, NY: (19 of 33) 57.57%

New York City, NY: Its murder rate in recent years has gone through the roof, but I am including them anyways. The FBI data omits 2021 entirely & for 2022 they report NYC PD cleared ZERO murders, which I know is NOT true. I will NOT include them in the final tally. That said, MAP reports that New York City cleared 74.53% (1,964 of 2,635) of all its murders, 2016-22.

Little Rock, Arkansas: (152 of 361) 42.1%

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/Q3RM4269S MAP reports AR statewide cleared 59.97% of its murders, 2016-22.

North Little Rock, AR: (69 of 103) 66.99%

Jefferson County Sheriff & Pine Bluff City, AR: (58 of 158) 36.7%

Jacksonville, AR: (20 of 23) 86.95%

Helena-West Helena, AR: (36 of 52) 69.23%

North Las Vegas, Nevada: (77 of 171) 45.02%

Las Vegas, NV: (800 of 966) 82.81%

Baltimore, Maryland: (764 of 2,102) 36.34%

MAP reports (2016-22) that MD only cleared 48.11% of its murders. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/QYMRRC3JS

Annapolis, MD: (15 of 29) 51.72%

Prince George’s County Police, Bowie City, District Heights City, Glenarden City, Greenbelt City, Hyattsville City, Laurel City, Mount Rainier City, New Carrollton City & Seat Pleasant City, MD: (308 of 557) 55.29%

New Orleans, Louisiana: (472 of 1,284) 36.76%

MAP reports that LA statewide (2016-22) only cleared 51.89% of its murders. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/4GBJFJ52X

Baton Rouge, LA: (297 of 549) 54.09%

Shreveport, LA: (139 of 377) 36.87%

Monroe, LA: (42 of 94) 44.68%

Alexandria, LA: (54 of 107) 50.46%

Denver County, Colorado: (396 of 530) 74.71%

Aurora, CO: (147 of 217) 67.74%

Commerce City, CO: (15 of 26) 57.69%

Newark, New Jersey: (177 of 479) 36.95%

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/FJSXTS585 MAP reports (2016-22) that NJ statewide only cleared 53.91% of its murders

Camden City, NJ: (125 of 185) 67.56%, MAP has 125 of 186, just in case you’re wondering. Camden City has no local police, the County has jurisdiction.

Miami City, FL: (147 of 276) 53.26% & 2021 data is MIA

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/FZN3WTNCF MAP reports (2016-22) FL cleared 61.39% of its murders.

Miami Gardens, FL: (2016-20 data only, 43 of 109) 39.44%

Fort Lauderdale, FL: (2016-20 only, 63 of 111) 56.75%

Tallahassee, FL: (80 of 97) 82.47%

Tampa, FL: (108 of 250) 43.25%

Orlando, FL: (127 of 234) 54.27%

The cumulative clearance rate for ALL THE JURISDICTIONS above (25,780 murders cleared & 52,958 murders committed) = 48.68%, a far cry from the 2016-22 national average. There is a massive signal in the areas where murder is far more prominent than say Iowa, the Dakotas, Montana, Utah, Idaho, etc. where there are not several cities that are as safe as Afghanistan.

As you can see, just because a state has a murder rate much lower than the national average (RI, NJ) it doesn’t necessarily mean it has a high clearance rate. Just because a state has a murder rate typically above the national average (NV, NC, SC) does not mean its clearance rate is low.

Of course, you have entities like IN, MS & IL where the murder rate exceeds the national average & their clearance rates are abysmal. However, it does seem that those cities w/ sky-high murder rates are far more likely (no snitch culture, Ferguson Effect) to have lower clearance rates than say rural areas of MT, IA, ID, UT, etc.
***
Let’s add some jurisdictions from those Black-majority (and Plurality) counties down South (If I can find FBI data), shall we? Some of them can be found above as they were already on the list of jurisdictions I planned on including.

Clayton County Police Dept, GA: (2022 data is incomplete, 86 of 207) 41.54%

Rockdale County Sheriff & Conyers City, GA: (Conyers only has data to 2019, 16 of 25) 64%

DeKalb County Police Department, Chamblee City, Decatur City, Stone Mountain City & Clarkston City, GA: (190 of 699) 27.18%

Sumter County Sheriff & Americus City, GA: (24 of 27) 88.88%

Henry County Police Department, Hampton City, McDonough City & Locust Grove City, GA: (29 of 50) 58%

Allendale City, SC: (4 of 13) 30.76%

Andrews City, Kingstree City & Williamsburg County Sheriff, SC: (14 of 36) 38.88%

Lee County Sheriff & Bishopville City, SC: (9 of 23) 39.13%

Bamberg County Sheriff’s Office, Bamberg City & Denmark City, SC: (2 of 14) 14.28%

Marion County Sheriff’s Office, Marion City & Mullins City, SC: (39 of 53) 73.58%

Fairfield County Sheriff & Winnsboro City, SC: (16 of 22) 72.72%

Hampton County Sheriff, Hampton City, Estill City & Yemassee City, SC: (7 of 16) 43.75%

Marlboro County Sheriff, Bennettsville City, McColl City & Cheraw City, SC: (30 of 46) 65.21%

Bertie County Sheriff & Windsor City, NC: (15 of 23) 65.21%

Hertford County Sheriff, Ahoskie City & Murfreesboro City, NC: (29 of 52) 55.76%

Northampton County Sheriff, NC: (10 of 15) 66.66%

Halifax County Sheriff, Roanoke Rapids City, Enfield City, Scotland Neck City & Weldon City, NC: (57 of 75) 76%

Vance County Sheriff & Henderson City, NC: (68 of 88) 77.27%

Warren County Sheriff & Warrenton City, NC: (6 of 14) 42.85%

Greensville County Sheriff & Emporia City, VA: (6 of 19) 31.57%

Franklin City, VA: (8 of 12) 66.66%

Brunswick County Sheriff, VA: (1 of 5) 20%

Sussex County Sheriff, VA: (6 of 11) 54.54%

East Carroll Parish Sheriff, LA: (13 of 21) 61.9%

Madison Parish Sheriff & Tallulah City, LA: (18 of 23) 78.26%

St. John the Baptist Parish Sheriff, LA: (35 of 43) 81.39%

St. Helena Parish Sheriff, LA: (32 of 37) 86.48%

Haywood County Sheriff & Brownsville City, TN: (11 of 16) 68.75%

Lee County Sheriff & Marianna City, AR: (4 of 12) 33.33%

St. Francis County Sheriff & Forrest City City, AR: (18 of 37) 48.64%

Crittenden County Sheriff, West Memphis City, Marion City & Earle City, AR: (85 of 118) 72.03%

Chicot County Sheriff, Lake Village City & Eudora City, AR: (3 of 7) 42.85%

Charles County Sheriff, MD: (45 of 57) 78.94%

Macon County Sheriff & Tuskegee City, AL: (8 of 29) 27.58%

Sumter County Sheriff, Livingston City & York City, AL: (3 of 7) 42.85%

Union Springs City, AL: (5 of 8) 62.5%

Wilcox County Sheriff's Office & Camden City, AL: (2 of 7) 28.57%

Dallas County Sheriff & Selma City, AL: (13 of 37) 35.13%

Lowndes County Sheriff & Hayneville City, AL (7 of 21) 33.33%

Marengo County Sheriff, Linden City & Demopolis City, AL: (5 of 18) 27.77%

The cumulative clearance rate for ALL THE JURISDICTIONS above = (979 of 2,043) 47.91%. Some of these jurisdictions are small, have very few murders but do not need many before the rate starts hitting the troposphere. Some are large, but they’re all much more “diverse” than the U.S. en masse, they have high murder rates & not surprisingly, they have collectively low clearance rates relative to the national average.

Adding those diverse jurisdictions I just covered w/ the laundry list of cities & counties above that gives us an in toto clearance rate of (26,759 of 55,001 murders) 48.65%, well below the national average.
***
Now for some data from jurisdictions that are not war zones (and therefore, tend to be more Republican & Whiter, many will NOT be included because they have no murders https://web.archive.org/web/20230801020040/https://professor_enigma.webs.com/covid-increase-homicides ) & some statewide data to boot (all data 2016-22, unless noted otherwise). The Groomer might say, “There aren’t many murders in that uber-white, Republican-dominated area, of course most murders will be solved.”

Not necessarily, as I have already explained & many rural or mostly rural areas have a lot of space but are not densely populated. In addition, they likely do not have as many LEOs per 100,000. For example, a county can have 80,000 people & 6 murders over the past decade. If only 3 are cleared, that brings their clearance rate down. Just as that county does not need a lot of murders for its rate to rocket up, they don’t need to fail to clear a murder before that rate suffers. In addition, some counties may not be heavily-populated, but have a lot of space to cover – Nye County, NV comes to mind. Just some food for thought.

I would argue many murder-laden jurisdictions have low clearance rates because hood rats are not going to report shooting (as I have already elucidated) a hood rat when they tried to horn-in on their drug dealing turf. When the opposition returns the favor a month later, nobody talks to the police, they just plan the response. The No Snitch Culture permeates a lot of communities, many folks refuse to talk to the police because they’re afraid of retribution from the rats or they’ve had it banged into their heads since birth that the cops “shoot them because they’re Black”. Let us begin.

Boise, Idaho: (22 of 25) 88%

Meridian, Idaho: (8 of 9) 88.88%

Nampa, ID: (17 of 25) 68%

Sioux City, Iowa: (7 of 23) 30.43%

Council Bluffs, IA: (10 of 14) 71.42%

Dubuque, IA: (9 of 9) 100%

Warren County Sheriff & Indianola City, IA: (4 of 4) 100%

Sioux Falls, South Dakota: (28 of 42) 66.66%

Rapid City, SD: (28 of 42) 66.66%

Billings, Montana: (28 of 47) 59.57%

Great Falls, MT: (13 of 18) 72.22%

Carson City, Nevada: (5 of 6) 83.33%

Provo, Utah: (5 of 6) 83.33%

Orem, UT: (14 of 15) 93.33%

St. George, UT: (10 of 15) 66.66%

Ogden, UT: (22 of 34) 64.7%

Layton, UT: (4 of 5) 80%

Logan, UT: (6 of 8) 75%

Abilene, Texas: (27 of 43) 62.79%

Odessa, TX: (60 of 63) 95.23%

San Angelo, TX: (24 of 36) 66.66%

Midland, TX: (20 of 47) 42.55%

Nacogdoches, TX: (14 of 16) 87.5%

Waco, TX: (44 of 65) 67.69%

Corsicana, TX: (6 of 11) 54.54%

Greenville, TX: (11 of 15) 73.33%

Conroe, TX: (8 of 20) 40%

Sherman, TX: (11 of 18) 61.11%

Tyler, TX: (25 of 37) 67.56%

Lufkin, TX: (13 of 16) 81.25%

Wichita Falls, TX: (43 of 55) 78.18%

Jefferson City, Missouri: (15 of 20) 75%

Cape Girardeau, MO: (24 of 31) 77.41%

Belton, MO: (9 of 11) 81.81%

Nixa, MO: (1 of 3) 33.33%

Springfield, Ohio: (9 of 49) 18.36%

Findlay, OH: (2 of 13) 15.38%

Marion, OH: (8 of 13) 61.53%

Lima, OH: (5 of 36) 13.88%

Wooster, Ohio: (2 of 3) 66.66%

Troy, OH: (2 of 2) 100%

Marysville, OH: (1 of 1) 100%

Xenia, OH: (5 of 6) 83.33%

Chillicothe, OH: (2 of 2) 100%

Burleigh County Sheriff & Bismarck City, North Dakota: (14 of 14) 100%

Grand Forks County Sheriff & Grand Forks City, ND: (11 of 13) 84.61%

Williams County Sheriff & Williston City, ND: (14 of 14) 100%

Dickinson, ND: (1 of 2) 50%

Morton County Sheriff & Mandan City, ND: (8 of 9) 88.88%

Saline County Sheriff & Salina City, Kansas: (11 of 17) 64.7%

Reno County Sheriff & Hutchinson City, KS: (4 of 8) 50%

Finney County Sheriff & Garden City City, KS: (10 of 15) 66.66%

Butler County Sheriff, Andover City & El Dorado City, KS: (6 of 7) 85.71%

Arkansas City & Winfield City, KS: (1 of 4) 25%

Ford County Sheriff & Dodge City City, KS: (5 of 6) 83.33%

Franklin County Sheriff, State Police Franklin County & Rocky Mount City, VA: (24 of 29) 82.75%

Augusta County Sheriff, VA: (12 of 11) 100%+ I ran into this a few times where a year would have more murders cleared than committed, but never had a 2016-22 time frame where the former was larger than the latter. Obviously, a murder from years ago was cleared & it was not retroactively added to that previous year, instead added to the current calendar year. When I tally this, I will add it as 11 of 11.

Washington County Sheriff, VA: (18 of 18) 100%

Bedford County Sheriff, State Police Bedford County & Bedford City, VA: (13 of 15) 86.66%

Frederick County Sheriff & State Police Frederick County, VA: (7 of 12) 58.33%

Fauquier County Sheriff, State Police Fauquier County & Warrenton City, VA: (14 of 18) 77.77%

Rockingham County Sheriff & Rockingham County State Police, VA: (10 of 14) 71.42%

Campbell County Sheriff, Campbell County State Police & Altavista City, VA: (17 of 24) 70.83%

Henry County Sheriff & Henry County State Police, VA: (22 of 31) 70.96%

Pittsylvania County Sheriff & Pittsylvania County State Police, VA: (18 of 28) 64.28%

Hanover County Sheriff & Ashland City, VA: (12 of 13) 92.3%

St. Cloud, Paynesville & Waite Park, Minnesota: (15 of 18) 83.3%

Wright County Sheriff, MN: (3 of 3) 100%

Sherburne County Sheriff & Elk River City, MN: (3 of 4) 75%

Crow Wing County Sheriff & Crosby City, MN: (3 of 4) 75%

Otter Tail County Sheriff, Fergus Falls City & Perham City, MN: (7 of 7) 100%

Chisago County Sheriff, MN: (1 of 2) 50%

Kandiyohi County Sheriff, MN: (1 of 1) 100%

Isanti County Sheriff, MN: (1 of 1) 100%

Benton County Sheriff & Sauk Rapids City, MN: (3 of 3) 100%

Ottawa County Sheriff, Grand Haven City, Holland City & Zeeland City, Michigan: (17 of 28) 60.71%

St. Clair County Sheriff, Marysville City, State Police St. Clair County, Memphis City & Port Huron City, MI: (13 of 18) 72.22%

Allegan County Sheriff, State Police Allegan County & South Haven City, MI: (6 of 11) 54.54%

Lapeer County Sheriff & Lapeer City, MI: (5 of 7) 71.42%

State Police Montcalm County & Greenville City, MI: (10 of 13) 76.92%

Ionia County Sheriff, Ionia County State Police & Ionia City, MI: (4 of 8) 50%

Barry County Sheriff, Barry County State Police & Hastings City, MI: (8 of 11) 72.72%

St. Joseph County Sheriff, St. Joseph County State Police, Sturgis City & Three Rivers City, MI: (4 of 10) 40%

Tuscola County Sheriff & Tuscola County State Police, MI: (4 of 4) 100%

Cass County Sheriff’s Office, Cass County State Police, Dowagiac City & Ontwa/Edwardsburg Township, MI: (4 of 7) 57.14%

Newaygo County State Police & Newaygo City, MI: (2 of 3) 66.66%

Cherokee County Sheriff, Holly Springs City, Canton City & Woodstock City, GA: (27 of 31) 87.09%

Forsyth County Sheriff, GA: (14 of 13) 100%+ Will tally this as 13 of 13

Hall County Sheriff, Flowery Branch City, Gainesville City & Oakwood City, GA: (49 of 50): 98% On several occasions, the County Sheriff cleared more murders than reported. I’m wondering if some of that is clearances from municipalities inside the county, but not sure.

Paulding County Sheriff & Dallas City, GA: (13 of 25) 52%

Columbia County Sheriff & Grovetown City, GA: (12 of 10) 100%+ Will tally as 10 of 10

Coweta County Sheriff, Grantville City, Newnan City & Senoia City, GA: (33 of 40) 82.5%

Carroll County Sheriff, Carrollton City & Bowdon City, GA: (12 of 14) 85.71%

Bartow County Sheriff & Cartersville City, GA: (7 of 9) 77.77%

Whitfield County Sheriff & Dalton City, GA: (8 of 12) 66.66%

Walton County Sheriff, Loganville City, Monroe City & Social Circle City, GA: (20 of 29) 68.96%

Floyd County Police Department & Rome City, GA: (21 of 29) 72.41%

Barrow County Sheriff, Auburn City & Winder City, GA: (3 of 10) 30%

Glynn County Police Department & Brunswick City, GA: (14 of 33) 42.42%

Jackson County Sheriff, Arcade City, Commerce City, Jefferson City, GA: (6 of 10) 60%

Bulloch County Sheriff, Statesboro City, GA: (14 of 19) 73.68%

Troup County Sheriff, Hogansville City, LaGrange City, West Point City, GA: (22 of 38) 57.89%

Effingham County Sheriff, Guyton City, Rincon City, GA: (1 of 7) 14.28%

Spalding County Sheriff & Griffin City, GA: (28 of 34) 82.35%

Walker County Sheriff, Chickamauga City, Rossville City, GA: (1 of 6) 16.66%

Catoosa County Sheriff, Fort Oglethorpe City & Ringgold City, GA: (4 of 7) 57.14% Fort Oglethorpe cleared murders in 2016 &2017 that happened earlier, just giving them a 1 for 1 on this.

Gordon County Sheriff & Calhoun City, GA: (8 of 10) 80%

Waukesha County Sheriff, Waukesha City, Pewaukee Village, Oconomowoc City, New Berlin City, Muskego City, Brookfield City, Brookfield Township, Hartland City, Menomonee Falls City & Mukwonago City, WI: (20 of 29) 68.96%

Washington County Sheriff, WI: (1 of 1) 100%

Fond du Lac County Sheriff & Fond du Lac City, WI: (13 of 15) 86.66%

Dodge County Sheriff, Beaver Dam City & Mayville City, WI: (7 of 7) 100%

Manitowoc City, Kiel City & Two Rivers City, WI: (6 of 8) 75%

Calumet County Sheriff & Chilton City, WI: (3 of 3) 100%

Marathon County Sheriff, Wausau City, Kronenwetter City & Rothschild City, WI: (10 of 13) 76.92%

The cumulative clearance rate for those numerous Republican-leaning areas in various states = (1,370 of 1,976) 69.33%, much higher than the national average.

That tells me that if you don’t allow your jurisdiction (Seattle, Portland, Twin Cities, NYC is moving that way, Chicago, Baltimore, Detroit, Austin TX is moving that way, etc.) become a “diverse” hellhole just for the sake of diversity – don’t intimidate the police into not doing their jobs, don’t thin the ranks of the police to the point where they cannot respond to many crimes – if you prosecute & jail violent folks & don’t encourage drug use (like much of Rural America does not) then most murders will be cleared.

If you live in a gang-infested cesspool full of fatherless children, not enough police to control mentally-ill Democrats & drug abuse is prominent – you get places like Minneapolis, Seattle, Dallas, Chicago, Detroit, Portland, Baltimore, Flint, E. St. Louis, St. Louis, Birmingham, etc.

You get a toxic, nasty culture that doesn’t trust the police, instead they trust a gang to get even when one of their own is rubbed-out by a rival. They’re not going to call the police, because the police would arrest them.

Snitches get stiches & a lot of “diverse” communities run by Democrats (see the list of Black plurality & majority counties down South) have low murder clearance rates & the people will not cooperate w/ the police. Ergo, the assailant goes free & in many cities they would be let out, even after being arrested for violent crimes numerous times.

The clearance rate issues are mostly in disintegrating cities run by Democrats & jurisdictions w/ high clearance rates have a law-and-order mentality. Now, here’s some selected state data.

Iowa https://icrime.dps.state.ia.us/CrimeInIowa/Report/DrillDownReports From 2016-2022, 357 of 530 murders (67.35%) were cleared. Iowa has been reporting to NIBRS for a long time, this is good data. MAP says 65.62%, very close. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/K8DXPQ793

Idaho https://nibrs.isp.idaho.gov/CrimeInIdaho/Report/DrillDownReports From 2016-2022, 205 of 280 (73.21%) murders were “cleared.” MAP says it was 71.17% https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/F4BY2P22W

Rhode Island https://riucr.nibrs.com/Report/DrillDownReports From 2017-22, (44.29%) 66 of 149 murders were cleared. RI has a low murder rate compared to the national average, yet their clearance rate is very low. MAP says (2016-22) RI’s clearance rate was an embarrassing 45.14% https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/TRPXKJKBJ

Texas https://txucr.nibrs.com/Report/CrimeDistributionReport Of the 7,682 murders (2016-22), 4,389 (57.13%) were cleared. MAP says 59.36%, but their murder total is much higher, likely due to agencies not reporting NIBRS data in TX. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/3XSTRD6KY

I wanted to include Utah & Montana, but Utah’s (state data) clearance page lumps all crimes against persons together & Montana (state data) will give it to you by agency & I refuse to collate all those agencies. From 2016-22, the Murder Accountability Project puts MT’s clearance rate at 64.56% & UT at 62.92% https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/6856JCDKW https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/342C4SZQW

Nevada https://nevadacrimestats.nv.gov/public/View/dispview.aspx From 2016-2022, (74.37%) 1,106 of the 1,487 murders were cleared. NV has a murder rate typically above the national average, yet their clearance rate is astounding. MAP says NV’s clearance rate was 73.34%, really close to state data https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/STCMRXWCS

https://showmecrime.mo.gov/public/View/dispview.aspx Missouri, only 2021 & 2022 data available. Of the 1,260 murders, (58.01%) 731 were cleared. The Murder Accountability Project pegs their 2016-22 clearance rate at 56.34%. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/7XCZ8FZ63

New Hampshire https://crimestats.dos.nh.gov/public/View/dispview.aspx From 2016-22; of the 138 murders, (68.11%) 94 of them were cleared. 65.67% according to MAP https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/RJ58FF5FP

https://www.murderdata.org/p/blog-page.html The Murder Accountability Project pegs Wisconsin’s clearance rate 2016-22 at 66.98% & I think it’s great to use as another resource. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/GWHGBYRQ4

Skimming through their data, they do seem to be pretty close to the state totals. See how much Milwaukee & WI en masse differ?

Colorado cleared https://coloradocrimestats.state.co.us/public/View/dispview.aspx (2,574 of 3,063) 84.03% of its murders. MAP reports a lower total, 70.57% (1,319 of 1,869). https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/8Z3KM5W8F I made sure I looked at Murder & Non-Negligent Manslaughter for Colorado & I have no idea why MAP & CO State Data are so far apart. https://www.murderdata.org/2020/05/nearly-3000-murders-unreported-by-police.html https://www.murderdata.org/2017/09/maps-study-of-americas-missing-murders.html Usually it’s the other way around.

Maine clears 76.73% https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/JNCWBMP65 of its murders, Massachusetts only clears 44.43% (much of that is because Boston does so poorly), https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/46PX45SDG Connecticut clears 59.4%, https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/WJQ54T53F Vermont clears 64.89%, https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/F2FQ3Z36Q Arizona clears 58.35%, Nebraska clears 82.24%, https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/JWRR6RRTQ ND clears 94.2% https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/FDGT82FDY & SD clears 76.37%. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/749CZXX74

Not to get too far off track, but if you start perusing the data from the previous essays, you see a lot of the usual suspects on the list of areas where a high % of murders are NOT reported. So, if a Groomer attempts to use that to stump even harder for more gun confiscation – remember that a good chunk of unreported murders are in these diverse cities run by Democrats that are akin to a demilitarized zone.

If Iowa is missing 10% of its murders, that’s not a large amount, but in Illinois, that would be YUUUUGE. In 2015, Iowa reported more murders to the FBI than the CDC.

To use a basketball analogy – Player A could miss 75% of his free throws, but only averages one free throw a game. Player B could only miss half his free throws, but if he’s shooting 12 a game, that’s a big deal.

It should also be noted from the previous link (download the Excel) that in the one year (2018) we have detailed data, 39.8% of the “missing murders” were in infants. That does NOT mean they’re not important, but it should be noted they are not 20-something men. >40% of the “missing murders” were in the AI/AN population too.

[X] https://web.archive.org/web/20220707112918/https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/07/police-murder-clearance-rate/661500/ https://archive.is/QnGdx Keep in mind, just because a murder has been “cleared” does NOT mean there’s a bad guy sitting in prison for it. https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/clearances You may also want to dig into these two little pieces, which put our declining clearance rate into perspective, rad them for yourself, my space is limited. https://www.ncja.org/crimeandjusticenews/new-analysis-says-murder-clearance-drop-largely-an-illusion https://www.ncja.org/crimeandjusticenews/why-have-police-clearance-rates-dropped-to-a-historic-low

Now to debunk the sophist at the Atlantic (Jeff Asher) who believes those dang firearms are the reasons murders are not cleared & he also attributes some of the decline to the Miranda decision, of which I concur.

Murder Clearance Rate Nationally, 1970-2022 = 65.8% https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/T63GG8TYS

Murder Clearance Rate Nationally, 1985-1995 (when the murder rate was *much higher* than even the year of & years following the Fentanyl Floyd Riots) = 65.68% https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/G4PQZWRDS

Murder Clearance Rate Nationally, 1995-2006 (this will allow me to do a comparison using FBI NIBRS later, stay tuned. In addition, the murder rate at that time frame was much higher than 2009-2019) = 61.58% https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/BKW5H287M

Murder Clearance Rate Nationally, 2009-2019 (when the murder rate had cratered to levels we had not seen since the 1950s) = 60.39% https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/2H3RGP8PJ

Murder Clearance Rate Nationally 2016-2022 = 56.25% https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/TX33P85F7

Murder Clearance Rate Nationally 2016-19 = 58.91% https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/TKD98TKQJ

Murder Clearance Rate Nationally 2020-22 = 53.47% https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/4TQ3WK8M7

Murder Clearance Rate Nationally 2010-15 (something happened after this, which caused the clearance rate to drop again, relative to the 1970-22 average) = 61.15%. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thomas.hargrove/viz/shared/7SSYCPD82 Just some food for thought.

Is Heather MacDonald right (Jeff Asher even alludes to the thinning of police ranks)? Is part of the falling clearance rate since 2016 due to a Ferguson Effect? How do you expect PD’s in places like Austin, Seattle & Portland to solve murders when their ranks have been thinned by BLM nutcases who want to rid us of the police so nobody will stop them the next time they try to burn Kenosha or Minneapolis to the ground.

Previous data https://archive.is/PHI9d I have on the % of murders committed w/ a firearm. *In 1995, NIBRS covered 5% of the population & by 2006 it was 23%. By 2000, it was 16% of the entire population. Pretty good sample size*

Weapons used in Murder, 1995-2006: 20,186 WEAPONS used in murder (including “unknown”) & of those, 12,016 (59.52%) of them were a “gun/firearm” of some sort. 18,519 KNOWN WEAPONS (excluding “unknown”) & of those, 12,016 (64.88%) were a “firearm/gun” of some sort. UNKNOWN WEAPONS were 8.25% of the total.

Weapons used in Murder, 2009-19 (a historically low rate watermark): 45,218 WEAPONS used in murder (including “unknown”) & of those, 30,132 (66.63%) were a “gun/firearm.” 42,568 KNOWN MURDER WEAPONS, of those (70.78%) were a “firearm/gun.” UNKNOWN WEAPONS were 5.86% of the total.

The latter time frame featured a much lower murder rate, relative to the former, yet guns were the culprit more often. Would this clown whine if the murder rate had continued downward for the next decade, but guns shot up (pun intended) to 80% of all murders (and his 80% total is an outlier compared to most years)?

Weapons used in Murder 2020-2022: 40,879 WEAPONS used in murder (including “unknown”) & of those, 31,638 (77.39%) were a “gun/firearm.” 39,135 KNOWN MURDER WEAPONS & of those, 31,638 (80.84%) were a “firearm/gun.” UNKNOWN WEAPONS were 4.26% of the total.

Jeff Asher said, “In the 1960s, about 50 percent of murders were committed with guns. Today, almost 80 percent of murders are committed with guns.” He blames guns, but he’s wrong.

In the 1920s & 1930s, the murder rate was *much higher* than it was from George W. Bush to 2019 & the % of murders committed w/ a firearm were much lower during other time frames where the overall murder rate was much higher than the last 2 decades. https://rumble.com/v2jcakg-sam-seder-is-brick-dumb-larry-elder-played-my-blm-call.html https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1435670/pdf/pubhealthrep00160-0005.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_20/sr20_006acc.pdf

If firearms were the issue, we would not have seen the massive declines in the murder rate since the 1990s. To reiterate, would this dummy prefer a murder rate of ~5 per 100,000 & firearms being 2/3 of all murder weapons or a murder rate of >7 per 100,000 & firearms ~55% of all murders?

In addition, the numbers of firearms per capita was not even close to the numbers we’ve had over the past few decades. Firearms per capita in these United States has exploded since the 1960, https://rumble.com/v4qszqu-the-otherdudeproductions-refutation-station-anti-gun-nutter.html (see the Small Arms Survey data) yet from 1994 to 2019 the U.S. saw the murder rate drop to levels not seen since the opening decade of the 20th century, as well as the 1950s-early 1960s. The murder rate began dropping like a stone in 1933 & continued until the early 1960s, save a short, massive spike in the mid-1940s.

Mr. Asher does not take into account the number of violent crimes averted because the would-be target pulls a gun. He does not take into account the massive swaths of the U.S. that have virtually no murder, yet guns are common. He doesn’t take into account the massive number of states since the mid-1980s that have added “shall-issue” or “constitutional carry” to the books. We also started locking up criminals in the mid-1990s (I don’t like locking up folks for simply having “too much weed,” so long as they have no violence on their record in connection w/ that), removing them from society, but that has changed over the past several years as numerous Soros-bootlicking prosecutors have decided that letting violent felons who have been arrested numerous times run free & terrorize society.

Like a typical Progressive that yearns for a Chinese-style authoritarian society, he needs to disarm the plebs. Every dictator knows that your subjects are easier to crush & murder if they’re not armed. Only an idiot attacks an armed target when that target knows they’re coming.

In closing, the falling clearance rate may not be a YUUGE issue as the arrest-to-conviction ratio https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/fjs20.pdf https://bjs.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh236/files/media/document/fjs21.pdf https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/fjs19.pdf https://bjs.ojp.gov/redirect-legacy/content/pub/pdf/fjs1718.pdf https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/fjs22.pdf https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/ascii/cfjs04.txt https://bjs.ojp.gov/redirect-legacy/content/pub/pdf/fjs09.pdf has rocketed up since the 1990s – law enforcement & prosecutors (at least the ones Soros doesn’t have in bed w/ him) have done a better job being picky & making charges stick.

The clearance rates that are typically below 50%, dragging the national average way down are in areas where you are more likely to have a “diverse” population in a poverty-stricken inner-city & a county Prosecutor who is taking his or her orders from the BLM/Soros/defund the police/thin the ranks of the police/Ferguson Effect.

Some jurisdictions have high clearance rates & high murder rates, but generally speaking if your area is a war zone w/ hood rats burning the place down & killing each other outside the tavern every weekend, you likely have a rotten culture & lots of violence folks running free.

If your jurisdiction has a “low” murder rate (like IA, MT, UT) & the police have not been shunned, intimidated & neutered, it’s more likely (as a general rule) to have a clearance rate way beyond the national average. Mr. Chairman, I Yield Back.

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