Russia prepares for major offensive in Ukraine after “mud season”

Russia is preparing for a major offensive – with the potential for a breakthrough – on the Ukraine front line in the next month when the muddy terrain dries out, according to military analysts.
The National News media outlet says that Ukraine’s military is in a race against time to build defences against the advance that could shatter their 1,000km front line.
Sources on X have reported “intensified movement” of Russian military equipment and personnel in Luhansk province, eastern Ukraine.
Tanks, armoured personnel carriers, fuel bowsers and Ural lorries are reported to be massing.
The build-up of weapons and ammunition in “very significant quantities” points to “preparation for another attempt to change the line”, said military analyst Sam Cranny-Evans, of the Rusi think tank.
“The big difference now written large is that air defence and fire superiority have shifted in Russia's favour,” he added.
Since November last year, following Ukraine’s summer offensive, Russian forces have taken an estimated 505 square kilometres of the country’s 603,000 square km total.
Even the mud season known as “rasputitsa” in Russian, or “season of bad roads”, has not stopped the Kremlin pushing forward infantry who have died in their thousands.
But once the mud dries the main effort is expected to begin with armour and artillery massing along the front line.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have suggested that Russia may concentrate a large-scale offensive in the western part of Donetsk Oblast in late spring or summer, adding that Russian troops will be able to launch an offensive in only one operational area. Russian commanders will likely focus their projected offensive on the western part of Donetsk Oblast in late spring or summer 2024, hoping to exploit steady but small advances by Russian forces in the area.
Ukrainian officials have recently cautioned that Russia is building up forces along the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis, near the war-torn towns of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, and in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. However, ISW believes that Russian forces are likely to be able to launch a concerted large-scale offensive in only one operational area due to limited manpower and planning.