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Is Keir Starmer losing the Muslim AND Jewish vote?
A recent by-election loss for Keir Starmer's Labour implies that both Muslim AND Jewish demographics are abandoning the party.
Right, so Keir Starmer’s Labour, despite headline polling figures implying he’s on course for a record breaking super majority all very much despite the fact he is about as about as personally popular amongst the general public as a bag of cement gone hard, is, behind the scenes, still losing councillors and still losing council by-elections that follow. One in particular should cause Labour real cause for concern, because a council by-election in one of the safest Labour constituencies in the country, just went to the Tories by a landslide and there is no ignoring the fact that amongst all the factors involved, the large Muslim and Jewish population resident in this area evidently walked away from Labour. People often say you can’t compare local election and general election voting intention and results, but religious divides tend to supercede that thinking. If people of a certain faith feel you are against them, or doing them a disservice, they won’t vote for you full stop. How badly could this picture be replicated around the country towards Keir Starmer and his position on Israel and Gaza, if he’s losing seats like this one?
Right, so OK, this is a council by-election result, but it has been awful for Labour as a massive swing to the Tories has seen it lost and there’s no ignoring the potential impact the large Muslim and Jewish demographic there could have had in this result.
We’re in Hackney, Hackney Borough Council and Cazenove Ward, which lies in the constituency of Hackney North and Stoke Newington, the constituency of Diane Abbott. Abbott is an MP who suffers an enormous amount of abuse, but her seat is safe as houses, she has a majority of more than 33,000, it is solid Labour territory, and yet still Starmer has overseen a loss here. Abbott as many will know was suspended from the party over a poorly worded tweet. As a clearly popular local MP, as the first female black MP ever, her place in history is assured, you can imagine such a well known and high profile Labour MP suspended on pretty weak charges, she submitted the wrong draft of a letter, hurriedly and publicly apologised for it and still got the Corbyn treatment, tell me that’s not factional. So this could be part of the story here, but there’s a larger element here, given that 15% of Cazenove Ward are Muslim and another 40% are Jewish. The majority of voters then. Here’s the result, we’d better look at the numbers first. First and foremost, the Tories took over half the vote, 53.7% on a turnout that although some sources are saying was high, it was actually down by 7.2%, just 32% turnout. In 2018 for example, turnout was over 48%, in 2022 it was 39%. Labour lost over 13% of their vote, the Lib Dem vote appears to haver collapsed to the Tories and there’s a reason for that, which I’ll come to, the Greens didn’t have a bad showing all other things considered.
So apathy has become more significant and the feeling is this is because much of the Muslim vote basically stayed at home.
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