Capital market sustains upswing amid subsidy removal, forex crisis

The Nigerian Exchange Limited closed negatively in the years preceding the elections of 2015 and 2019, but bucked the trend last year, posting a 19.98 per cent return. It has sustained this trend this year, despite the uncertainty that trailed the 2023 general elections.

On the first day of trading after the February 25 presidential election, the market hit N30tn capitalisation. A milestone which analysts said reflected local investors’ optimism about the policies of the winner of the presidential election.

Sharing the analysts’ perspective, the Managing Director of Arthur Stevens Asset Management Limited, Tunde Amolegbe, said, “For the elections, the market closed down for the two previous election cycles in 2015 and 2019. However, for the elections in 2023, the market broke from the conventional trend. Even after the elections, the market remained bullish, showing that inflation was good for it because it was the only place where positive real returns could be achieved when taking into account potential holding period returns.

“Additionally, the perception that whoever of the three leading presidential candidates who wins the election will be good for the market because they will all outperform the current administration. In fact, the equity market was bullish even after the elections and up to the announcements of results.”

Apart from the unusual response of the market to elections, investors also responded to the increasing inflation by playing more in the equity market because it was giving higher returns than the fixed-income market.