Why "Digging In" Won't Save Ukraine & What the West Got Wrong about Russian Defenses

Video Credit: TheNewAtlas - Why Ukraine Won’t Be Able to “Dig In”
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for 22.12.2023
- After the defeated 5 month Ukrainian offensive and with admissions in the Western media that Ukraine’s cross-river offensive in Kherson is a failure, a growing number Ukrainian and Western military and political leaders are talking about Ukraine going on the defensive
- Ukraine seeks to build Russian-style defensives along the line of contact and use 2024 to build up combat power
- The main problem facing this strategy is that Ukraine has already in many places dug in since as early as 2014 and yet Russia has been able to overpower and displace Ukrainian forces regardless
- Russia’s successful defeat of the 2023 Ukrainian offensive was owed as much to its superior firepower as it was to the construction of defensive positions
- While Russia will not be able to conduct “big arrow” offensives without suffering heavy losses for the same reason Ukraine cannot, the existence of mines covered by artillery, FPV drones and other systems that can target Russian forces as they attempt to breach minefields
- Russia can continue its war of attrition while placing growing pressure all along the line of contact and exploiting anywhere opportunities begin to form
- Western commentators continue to interpret the conflict in mere 2 dimensions rather than the 4 dimensions actually required to understand Russia’s long-term strategy and why it has worked
- The 4th dimension being time, it is important to understand what Ukraine’s combat power will look like a year from now following concerted Russian efforts to target and irreversibly diminish specific capabilities (like air defense, artillery, counter battery fire, and military aviation)
References:
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The Foundation for Defense of Democracies - Zelenskyy Orders Ukrainian Forces to Dig In (December 5, 2023):
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/12/05/zelenskyy-orders-ukrainian-forces-to-dig-in/
BBC - Ukraine war: Satellite images reveal Russian defences before major assault (May 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65615184
NYT - Defenses Carved Into the Earth (December 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/world/europe/russian-trench-fortifications-in-ukraine.html
Guardian - ‘We will stand until the end’: Ukrainian defenders of Avdiivka hold on – for now (December 14, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/14/ukrainian-defenders-of-avdiivka-hold-on-for-now
Business Insider - Ukraine says Russia has it outgunned 7 to 1 when it comes to drones (December 2023):
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-seven-drones-every-one-ukraine-has-army-official-2023-12
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31.07.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 - Ukraine's "Big Push" Results in Big Losses as Offensive Nears 2 Months - TheNewAtlas
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29.07.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 - NATO in the Black Sea, Russia & North Korea + Seeking Ukrainian Security
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26.07.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 - Ukrainian Offensive Nears 2 Month Mark: Little Left to Replace Heavy Losses
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17.07.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 - Ukrainian vs. Russian Artillery + US Buying Taiwan's Hawk Missiles for Ukrainian Air Defense
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Read More
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09.07.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 - Ukraine's Offensive Suffering Heavy Losses, Azov Commanders Return
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03.07.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 - Ukraine's Offensive at 1 Month - Losing the War of Attrition
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25.06.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Russia’s “Civil War” Evaporates as Ukraine’s Offensive Enters Week 4 - TheNewAtlas
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18.06.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 The New Atlas: Mark Sleboda Explains Ukraine's Offensive as it Enters Week 3
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13.06.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Ukrainian Offensive Amid Week 2: NATO Rushes in More Armor as Losses Mount
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10.06.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 - Ukraine's Offensive Begins: Burning NATO Equipment vs. Layered Russian Defenses
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03.06.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦- Dark Truth Behind Ukraine's NATO-Armed Border Raids + Cost of Attrition Continues to Mount
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22.05.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦- Bakhmut Folds: Russia Takes City + Ukraine's Struggle Against Toll of Attrition
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17.05.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦- Russian Kinzhal Missile Strikes US Patriot System in Kiev + the Fundamental Disadvantage West Faces
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13.05.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦- Ukraine Receiving Storm Shadow Cruise Missiles + the Propaganda Storm around Bakhmut
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08.05.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦- Kiev Denies Downing Khinzhal, Downs Own TB-2 Drone + Russia Plans Slow Grind After Ukraine Offensive
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24.04.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦- Russian Airpower Over Ukraine Increasing + More Shortcomings Appear Ahead Ukrainian Offensive
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19.04.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦- Ukraine's Offensive: Taking Territory vs. the War of Attrition
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12.04.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦- Ukrainian Air Defenses Dwindling, West Scours World for Arms on Eve of "Spring Offensive"
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09.04.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦- Ukraine's Coming Offensive: Leaked NATO Plans + Lack of Arms - TheNewAtlas Report
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03.04.34 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦- The "Battle of Bakhmut" + Russia's GLONASS-Guided Glide Bombs
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27.03.23 -🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 - Tactics, Arms & Ammo: What Will Shape Ukraine's Offensive & Impact its Aftermath - TheNewAtlas
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23.03.23 -🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 - West Surges Ammunition Ahead of Ukraine's All-Or-Nothing Offensive - NewAtlas
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20.03.23 - 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Avdeevka Encirclement + US Prepares UA for "Last Chance" Offensive, Surging Ammunition - TheNewAtlas
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13.03.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 - Ukraine's Possible Bakhmut Counteroffensive + What Poland's Military Build-Up Means -TheNewAtlas
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06.03.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 - UK DoD: RU Fighting with "Shovels" - Ukraine Losing Bakhmut, Low on Artillery Shells
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22.02.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 - Where is Russia's Winter Offensive + Biden Empty-Handed in Kiev - TheNewAtlas
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20.02.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 - 1 Year Russia's Special Mil. Operation: the U.S Started this War & Where it's Heading -
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15.02.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 West's Ability to Arm Ukraine Continues to Wane - TheNewAtlas Report
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10.02.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 TheNewAtlas: Missiles, Earthquakes & Pipelines - US Hegemony Fighting on All Fronts
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06.02.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 What's in the Latest US Arms Package + US Provocations vs Russia & China - TheNewAtlas Report
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03.02.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 As US Proxy War Rages Against Russia, US Seeks War with China by 2025
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01.02.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 - US Threatens Missiles, Jets, Crimea, US Sees War with China by 2025
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29.01.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Western Volunteer in Bakhmut: Ukraine is Losing + Western Tank Card a Bluff? TheNewAtlas Report
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25.01.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 US to Send M1 Abrams to Ukraine and more
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23.01.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Russian Gains, US Gears Up for Crimea Escalation
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20.01.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 US, Allies Send More Weapons to Ukraine in Absence of Real Solution - TheNewAtlas Report
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18.01.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 US-NATO Prepare Escalation in Desperate Bid to Turn the Tide (again) in Ukraine - TheNewAtlas Report
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16.01.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 As West Sends More Armor to Ukraine, Why "Turning the Tide" is still Fantasy - TheNewAtlas Report
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13.01.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦Will Western Main Battle Tanks Turn the Tide in Ukraine? What do Russian Gains in Soledar Mean? - TheNewAtlas Report
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11.01.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 What (more reasonable) Western Analysts Say Comes Next for Ukraine - TheNewAtlas Report
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08.01.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Latest US Arms Shipment to Ukraine Cannot Solve Kiev's Fundamental Problem - TheNewAtlas Report
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06.01.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Western Escalation in Ukraine: Sending in Armor - But is it Too Little Too Late? TheNewAtlas Report
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https://rumble.com/v248zak-western-escalation-in-ukraine-sending-in-armor-but-is-it-too-little-too-lat.html
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04.01.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Could NATO Directly Intervene in Ukraine? theNewAtlas Report
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02.01.23 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 New Year Missile & Drone Strikes Continue Across Ukraine - TheNewAtlas Report
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29.12.22 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Russian Missile Strikes, New Defenses, & Fighting into 2023 - TheNewAtlas Report
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https://rumble.com/v22zvqo-russian-missile-strikes-new-defenses-and-fighting-into-2023-thenewatlas-rep.html
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27.12.22 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Why is Russia Conducting its Special Military Operation this Way? TheNewAtlas Report
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21.12.22 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Battlefield Bakhmut: Why Russia & Ukraine are Fighting Over this City - TheNewAtlas Report
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https://rumble.com/v21t5oi-battlefield-bakhmut-why-russia-and-ukraine-are-fighting-over-this-city-then.html
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09.12.22 🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine SITREP, Missiles & What Comes Next
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https://rumble.com/v210owu-09.12.22-russia-ukraine-sitrep-missiles-and-what-comes-next.html
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