War in Ukraine: Putin's fatal mistake? What is at stake for Europe?

Cross-border Talks takes on the Russian military invasion in Ukraine together with Veronika Sušová-Salminen - a Czech-Finnish expert on Russia and the Polish journalist Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat (who speaks Russian and Ukrainian).

TLDR: Putin's invasion of Ukraine has backfired, causing suffering for the Ukrainian people, creating a complex security crisis in Europe, and potentially weakening Russia's global position.

1. 00:00 🚨 The ongoing military invasion of Ukraine by Russia has not achieved Putin's aims, causing suffering for the Ukrainian people and creating a complex security crisis in Europe.
1.1 Ukrainian people are suffering the consequences of an imperialist war waged by Russia, and the escalation of the crisis is a surprise even to analysts.
1.2 The systemic crisis of the security environment in Europe is complex and difficult to solve due to the collision between the atlanticist and continental concepts of security orientation.

2. 06:03 🚨 Ukraine caught in conflict between great powers, US wants to stop Russia, war ends cooperation between West and Russia, sanctions imposed on Russia, but not enough as Russia has Chinese ally.
2.1 The United States wants to stop Russia from becoming a great power and is using Ukraine to do so, while Ukraine is also searching for its own identity as a more pro-western nation.
2.2 The war in Ukraine has put an end to the possibility of cooperation between the West and Russia, and the West's reaction to the conflict is being judged.
2.3 Sanctions imposed on Russia, including blocking certain banks' access to the SWIFT system and banning Russian state media in the EU, are a significant symbolic step with potential personal consequences for Putin and Lavrov, and the EU is also announcing new sanctions against Belarus for its involvement in the invasion.
2.4 Sanctions in Europe are not enough, as Russia has a Chinese ally and China is willing to help Russia in view of the sanctions.

3. 11:50 🚨 Europe is divided on response to Ukraine invasion, impacting NATO's role and leading to potential militarization and US base increase.
3.1 Huge demonstrations against war and invasion in Europe, with societies willing to help refugees, while political centers are less decisive due to capitalist interests.
3.2 The security environment in Europe will change with a high level of militarization, potential increase in US bases, and a shift in the role of NATO and the European Union.

4. 16:29 🚨 Putin's decision to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk backfired, strengthening NATO and increasing support for Ukraine's acceptance into the alliance and the EU, potentially leading to a new cold war with consequences for central and eastern Europe and the involvement of China.
4.1 Putin's actions have inadvertently strengthened NATO and increased support for Ukraine's acceptance into the alliance and the European Union.
4.2 Russia's actions in Ukraine may have led to a new cold war, with potential consequences for central and eastern Europe, and the involvement of China in the geopolitical equation.

5. 20:57 🚨 Putin's miscalculated invasion of Ukraine may weaken Europe's global position and lead to a shift in international relations.
5.1 Vladimir Putin may not have a good understanding of the reality within his system and the situation in Ukraine, as the Ukrainians did not crumble under attack.
5.2 Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a miscalculation based on Russian interests, as they underestimated the situation and are acting against their own interests.
5.3 Putin's desire for less NATO and a potential reorientation towards China could lead to a significant shift in international relations, potentially weakening Europe's global position.

6. 25:33 🚨 Putin's fatal mistake was attacking Ukraine, as Ukrainians do not see Russia as a better alternative and it has put Russia in a position of dependence on China, potentially leading to future confrontations between the US and China.
6.1 Putin's invasion of Ukraine has put Russia in a position of dependence on China, leading to potential future confrontations between the US and China.
6.2 The speaker briefly discusses the similarities between China and Russia.

7. 30:32 🚨Putin will become more dependent on China, losing the opportunity to balance between China and the West, but Russia will still have other countries willing to do business with them.

8. 37:48 🚨 Russian-speaking Ukrainians assert their identity, protests in Russia indicate division, surprise invasion causes shock and protests, potential negative consequences for Putin's stability and Russian economy.