A Benign Fed, But Stimulus Coming?

- This opens a return to normal for markets, one without a heavy fed overhang
- When looking at the numbers Ex-Fed, things aren't amazing
- Earnings yields near record lows ex-dot com, GFC, and Covid crash
- Cuts will come, towards neutral, but not a return of ZIRP
- Economy expected to slow further, savings continue to be depleted, can't ignore signs of slowing on company earnings
- Not seeing catastrophe in oil, OPEC wants an unusual lack of Q1 inventory builds