Elon Musk's luck has finally run out

Elon Musk's luck has finally run out

From 2019 to 2022, it seemed as if every gamble that Musk took was paying off. Tesla was consistently profitable for the first time in its history and its stock soared as its massive new Shanghai plant ramped up production. SpaceX rockets captivated the public's attention — even when they blew up, everyone still clapped. Accusations of corruption and self-dealing slid right off Musk's back. Musk could do and say anything he wanted and success followed: He was even named Time's 2021 Person of the Year. Then Musk did what every risk-addicted blackjack player inevitably does: pushed his luck too far. Overconfidence, confirmation bias, and delusions of control led to a string of bad decisions — and BOOM — Elon's empire is in trouble again.

The change of fortune was apparent atThe New York Times Dealbook Conference last week. During an interview with host Andrew Ross Sorkin, the recognizable tells that Musk's hand had gone cold were everywhere. He raged at the very people who will dictate Twitter's fate, seemed baffled by key questions about the future of his companies, and offered non-apologies for his unhinged, antisocial behavior online. Sorkin suggested Musk's brain is like a storm, but it sounded more like two cats fighting to get out of a duffle bag.

This, ladies and gentlemen, is what it looks like when Musk realizes he's in a jam entirely of his own making. I know, because we've seen it before, including back in 2018, when he nearly flew Tesla into a mountain. He may find a way to ward off calamity, as he did then, but this jam is much tighter than the last one. Musk has to contend with over $13 billion of debt still weighing down a swiftly sinking Twitter, Tesla's profits shrinking because of a lack of demand and new products, and a world that is generally sick of his schtick. In Muskland, everything is connected by money — problems at one business bleed into the others. That's why Elon is being exceptionally obstinate. It's not just your imagination — his luck has changed.