2023-12-10

Hi, welcome back.

sO I'm up around 7 percent this week. Most profit is from long Bitcoin and US treasury bond positions., so this is my option portfolio. The top position is still Bitcoin and followed by AXON and TLT.

SO I'm now Delta neutral this, because I've added a lot of shop cyclicals stocks this week. Basically I expect the PMI to. Job further

so I'm now basically long growth and tech stocks and shop financials and consumer discretionary stocks.

SO just a brief check on the market. We now have the VIX volatility index at the lowest point since during the pandemic in 2020. And at the same time, we have the U S treasury bond going up quite a lot in the past several weeks. So it seems that the market is now betting on the soft landing scenario in the U S because of the cooling inflation.

However, is the US economy really that strong at the moment? So this is the chart of the Citigroup economic surprise index. So in the past two weeks, economic indicators has been falling sharply and one example is the U S manufacturing PMI.

So in the latest reading in November, we can see the reading is not really that good. It's still in the contraction territory

And we do not really see any sign of bottoming at the moment.

So overall, I think the market has been going quite ahead of itself. So there could be some correction going forward in the Q1 next year.

So this, so this is an interesting chart that I would like to share with you.

So we can see in the past two weeks, the big cap stocks has been falling. Meanwhile, the non profitable technology stocks has been going up. And I think it makes sense because throughout this year, we have seen a strong rally for the big tech stocks. So it's natural that we are going to have a correction going forward.

And at the same time, we have the falling yield, which is supporting the high valuation of WorkBeach stocks, so that's why the non profitable technology stocks is going up recently. And I think it's likely to continue for a while as well. And just an interesting chart for NVIDIA as well.

So we can see heavy selling from insider recently.

So I think the stock is probably topping and due for a correction going forward.

SO just some coverage for China. So I think in the past two quarters, we have been seeing stimulus measures from the Chinese government, trying to support the real estate sector

but it seems that it's not really helping to solve the crisis going on in China so this week we have the Moody's credit agency cutting the China credit outlook to negative because of the lingering real estate crisis basically.

So I think it's going to take longer time than expected for those hot money in China to going back to the Chinese ADR stocks

So just a bit of coverage for the Japanese yen. So this week I've actually cut my long Japanese yen position because basically not patient enough to write this trade. And I'm also expecting the Japan economy is starting to slow down. So that's why the inflation narrative is no longer very strong at the moment. So. Not strong inflation means the yield is not going to go up, which is not supporting the bullish Japanese yen case. So that's why I've cut my long position.

However, just one day after I've closed the position, we have seen a strong jump for the Japanese yen. It's basically due to some comment from some Japanese policymaker about that they are going to unwind their ultra negative interest rate policy, so there's a news about that the Japan GDP is now getting revised downward because of the slowdown of the economy.

It's now not supportive for a stronger Japanese Yen.

And this is also another news about the big jump for the Japanese Yen on Wednesday. So it seems like it's just some position unwind by some big hedge fund traders.

And this is the volatility for the Japanese Yen. So we have seen a big spike in this week, BUt I think it's going to fall further, which means there is not going to have enough opportunity to make money from trading the Japanese yen.

So just a small coverage going back to China. So we have seen easing China and US tension at the moment. So I think it's due to two reasons. So the first reason is the US is going to the election year in next year. And secondly, we have seen a very serious slowdown for the Chinese economy.

So they are just going to improve relationship to try to solve their own problems

So just some coverage for Bitcoin. So this week , in the option market, we have the record call volume.

So the option market is now pricing a target of 50, 000 by January, which implies a around 15 percent upside in one month.

And this is a piece of news about Tesla shorts. bAsically Tesla is seeing slowing demand and also they are losing market share to Chinese competitors.

So this the market share chop of Tesla. So we can see it's now falling to below 50%

And I think it's way less for the market share in China and is despite a heavy dropping for the price for their vehicles.

This is the update for this week. Thank you for watching. See you next week. Bye.