Dec Up | 2023-11-19

Hey, welcome back. So this week is the option expiry week for November. So I'm down a little bit. My biggest winning positions are from long Royal Caribbean, Cruise line, ASML and Shopify. anD my biggest losers are from short Tesla and short IWM, which is the Russel 2000 small to mid cap ETF.

I think I've put too much hedging positions and ended up losing money on those short positions which are really unnecessary. And this is my actual option positions, so my biggest positions by market value are now Shopify, RCL and AXON.

And this is my risk in terms of industries. So I'm basically long the broader markets like consumer discretionary industrial technology and energy stocks. Basically, I'm just long the market for the December.

And this is my SPX index Delta with basically my longest Delta positions are from MSTR, which is the long Bitcoin trade, Shopify and AXON.

, so this is the summary of my current portfolio. As for the market, so the biggest event in this week is obviously the CPI results. So we have to miss across the board, and the market reacted very strongly on this result.

Specifically we have the Russell 2000 index rising 5. 4 percent in this week, which is a very big movement

and I was also caught by surprise because I was shorting this position. And this is the S& P 500 index, so we can see in the last three weeks, it already erased all the loss from the last three months, which is very significant price action.

And this is the dollar index. Yes. Basically responding to the falling yield because of the falling inflation, because of the missing result of the CPI.

And besides good micro data from the US, we also have the recovering Chinese sentiment.

So we can see that in terms of both the industrial outputs and the retail sales. They are all beating the expectations, which is very good. And this also the latest oil demand outlook from this week.

Basically, we can see that the huge demand is driven by China recently,

Also some little coverage from e commerce company in China. So which is JD. com I have a long position on this one. So we can see that JD. com released earning results this week.

Basically, they are better than the expectation.

And as a result, the stock rose 9 percent on that days of the earning results.

And this is a piece of news from SCMP. So we can see that basically all metrics like transaction volume, order volume, or user engagement, they are reaching all time highs, and this is a chart of JD. com. We can see that it's basically bottoming. So I think in terms of technical analysis, this is a very good set up to the upside. So in summary, I think we pretty much have a Christmas rally in the coming December because we have the CPI miss, which is signaling the end of the rate high cycle. Also we have the earning results for November pretty much passed already. So we have the quiet period in December, which means low uncertainty, which means lower risk for the market. And also we have the China recovery story coming, at least for the sentiments, And finally, we have the improving U. S. China relation, at least for the short term, because we have the Chinese leaders visiting San Francisco at the moment, and also we have some optimistic comment for the Taiwan situation.

So that's why I'm pretty much long the December.

So this is the summary of this week. Thank you for watching. See you in the next week. Bye.