Debate: Will All Possible Technologies Be Developed by 2030? – David Patterson and David Wood

On November 12, 2023, the U.S. Transhumanist Party presented a debate on the future of technological progress.

The key question addressed was, “Will all possible technologies be developed by 2030?”

Supporting this position was David Patterson, whose End State 2030 outlook holds that “Technological development will end by the year 2030 because all possible technology will have been developed. This will result in humanity reaching a stable end state to civilization where all economic, social, and political problems will be solved.”

Responding to and offering critiques of this position was David Wood, who has stated, “There are plenty of ways technology may continue to be developed well past what we can currently easily foresee.”

The debate was moderated by Gennady Stolyarov II, Chairman of the U.S. Transhumanist Party, and the outcome was evaluated by a panel of USTP Officers as well as observers from the audience.

As with all USTP Virtual Enlightenment Salons, the foremost goal was for this to be a learning experience that helps improve the participants’ and audience’s understanding of some of the most significant issues facing humankind. Thus, this broader educational purpose was emphasized to a greater extent than winning, and both participants in this exchange were open to acknowledging areas of agreement as well as differences.

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Timestamps

4:25 - David Patterson’s opening statement

15:08 - David Wood’s-cross examination of David Patterson

20:25 - David Wood’s opening statement

30:46 - David Patterson’s cross-examination of David Wood

38:23 - David Patterson on how the end state looks

40:22 - David Wood on how the choice of ideology matters

42:49 - David Patterson’s rebuttal of David Wood

47:36 - David Wood’s rebuttal of David Patterson

53:46 - David Patterson fleshing out his 2030 timeline

56:23 - David Wood on governments’ efforts to regulate AI

59:22 - David Patterson on software also reaching a hard limit

1:01:17 - David Wood on the importance of near-term success

1:03:23 - David Patterson and then David Wood on imminent AI technology

1:08:08 - David Patterson on AI’s effects on intelligence

1:11:17- David Wood on pausing AI development

1:14:21 - David Wood’s closing statement

1:20:20 - David Patterson’s closing statement

1:38:25 - David Patterson and then David Wood on why the advent of the internet hasn’t (yet) led to an age of enlightenment

1:51:25 - David Patterson on the limits of health technology

1:53:25 - David Wood’s take on the debate

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Read about David Patterson’s “End State 2030” concept at https://www.endstate2030.com/.
David Patterson also originated the concept of Active Communities, groups that use motivation and morality to help individuals and communities achieve optimal outcomes in health, prosperity, and education. They were discussed at the U.S. Transhumanist Party Virtual Enlightenment Salon of September 17, 2023: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zObPE0pIKvo

David W. Wood, D.Sc., was one of the pioneers of the smartphone industry. He is now a futurist writer, consultant, and speaker. As Chair of London Futurists, David Wood has organized over 200 public meetings since March 2008 on futurist and technoprogressive topics. Membership of London Futurists now exceeds 8,000. David Wood is also the Executive Director of the Longevity Escape Velocity Foundation: https://www.levf.org/.

As Principal of the independent futurist consultancy and publisher Delta Wisdom, David Wood helps clients around the world to anticipate the dramatic impact of rapidly changing technology on human individuals and communities. Via Delta Wisdom, he highlights opportunities to apply technology in new solutions to deep-rooted problems.

David Wood is author of “Vital Foresight: The Case for Active Transhumanism” and “The Death of Death” (co-authored with Jose Cordeiro). His previous books include “Smartphones and Beyond”, “The Abolition of Aging”, “Sustainable Superabundance”, “RAFT 2035”, and “Transcending Politics”. He was also the lead editor of the volume “Anticipating 2025”. He blogs at https://dw2blog.com/ and tweets as @dw2.

Join the U.S. Transhumanist Party for free, no matter where you reside: https://transhumanist-party.org/membership

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