US Proxy Wars: Israel Gears Up for Gaza Incursion as Initiative Passes to Russia in Ukraine

Update on the conflict in Ukraine + Middle East for October 17, 2023

- Russia continues overturning what negligible gains Ukraine made during its over 4 month-long offensive in Zaporozhye;

- Russian operations in Avdeevka continue, however no major “offensive” has been announced by Russian military or political leaders;

- Attempts by Russia to exploit possible opportunities along the line of contact are measured, with limitations identified by Russian commanders in stark contrast to Ukraine’s stand-and-fight approach;

- In the Middle East, fighting continues between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon as Israeli military operations continue to target Gaza;

- Israel has taken action to compel Palestinians to evacuate from northern parts of Gaza in what is likely an attempt to seize the territory and prevent a future return by Palestinians to the area;

- Israel’s continued violation of international law and belligerence toward its neighbors is an unsustainable policy that undermines its own self-preservation, like most US proxies;

- Russia and China are in a better position now than ever to advance the two-state solution and are creating a region in which this solution can actually materialize;

References:

Politico - Putin hammers Ukraine with West distracted by Middle East crisis (October 16, 2023):
https://www.politico.eu/article/leaders-distracted-war-hamas-israel-crisis-russia-putin-attacks-ukraine-kherson/
VOA - Russian Military Operations Slacken Near Strategic Town of Avdiivka (OOctober 16, 2023):
https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-returns-several-ukrainian-children-in-qatar-brokered-deal-/7312473.html
TASS - Russian forces continuing to implement master plan during special op — Shoigu (October 16, 2023):
https://tass.com/politics/1691503
CNN - Russia’s jamming of US-provided rocket systems complicates Ukraine’s war effort (May 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html
Defense News - Lockheed wins $4.8B guided rockets contract (April 2023):
https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/aaaa/2023/04/27/lockheed-wins-48b-guided-rockets-contract/
Times of Israel - Hezbollah shoots at IDF posts, fires missile at tank in fresh Lebanon border clashes (October 16, 2023):
https://www.timesofisrael.com/hezbollah-shoots-at-idf-posts-fires-missile-at-tank-in-fresh-lebanon-border-clashes/
The Telegraph - Israeli tanks with Ukraine-style ‘anti-drone cages’ line up on Gaza border (October 16, 2023):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/16/israel-tanks-installed-cope-cages-drone-bomb-defence/
Haaretz - Hezbollah Anti-tank Fire Causing Most IDF Casualties in Lebanon (August 2006):
https://www.haaretz.com/2006-08-06/ty-article/hezbollah-anti-tank-fire-causing-most-idf-casualties-in-lebanon/0000017f-dbc4-d856-a37f-ffc41fc50000
NYT - A Disciplined Hezbollah Surprises Israel With Its Training, Tactics and Weapons (August 2006):
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/07/world/middleeast/07hezbollah.html
RAND Corporation - Extending Russia (2019):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
CSIS - The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan (2023):
https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan
Brookings Institution - Which Path to Persia? (2009):
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf

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