Will China occupy a region of Russia by 2045?

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This video explores the potential of military conflict between Russia and China over essential natural resources that Russia possesses and China lacks. In particular it examines China's worsening water shortage, which is most acute in its northern regions. Predictions are provided that offer possible timelines for when China might occupy a region of Russian territory and how likely this is to happen by 2045.

China’s shortages are due to a number of factors, including climate change, rapid economic development, and inefficient water management. The water shortage is already having a significant impact on China, leading to crop failures, industrial disruptions, and potential social unrest. In the future, it could threaten the CCP's ability to effectively remain in government. The CCP is aware of the risks posed by the water shortage and is taking steps to address the problem, such as building dams and desalination plants. However, these measures are unlikely to be sufficient to meet China's growing water needs. As a result, the CCP may be tempted to take more drastic measures to secure water resources, such as invading Russia to occupy land around Lake Baikal, the world's largest freshwater lake.

Links to prediction platforms:

Metaculus: https://tinyurl.com/CHRU-waterwar
Manifold: https://tinyurl.com/waterwar-mm

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Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome to Foresight Bureau
00:44 China's growing water crisis
02:05 Factors causing the crisis
04:19 Implications of water shortages
06:16 China's attempt to access Russian water
06:54 China-Russia relations
08:05 China's gamble to invade Russia
08.44 Arguments against invasion
09.05 Likelihood and timeline
11.00 Arguments for invasion
12.55 Past territorial disputes
15.30 AI predictions and rationales

Disclaimer:

This video is intended for entertainment purposes only. We do not guarantee the accuracy, or completeness of the information published. We are not responsible for any losses or damages that may arise. Nothing should be interpreted as investment or financial advice.