75% Chance of Recession Before Year End.

#economy #interestrates #bank

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Today we will look at the US treasury market and the yield curve and an indicator that has not failed in forecasting a recession since 1989.

That indicator is the spread between the 2-year note yield and the 10-year note yield. I will explain why an inverted yield curve plants the seeds of a recession and when we can expect to see the recession start.