Polling shows Starmer’s Labour tied with the SNP. They aren’t.

Polling showing Labour and ther SNP are tied is misleading. When you drill down into ther data, there's quite a gap.
Right, so there’s a lot of excitement coming from the Starmeroid camp in Scotland at the sight of a Redfield Wilton poll that shows the SNP and Scottish Labour tied on 35% each. It’s misleading and as much as Labour might be cheering this, it’s false economy for them to get so excited based on these numbers. Yet of course that is what they are doing. Scottish Labour have their finger on the pulse, not by pointing to this poll and saying: ‘It’s all to play for at the next general Election, Only Labour can boot out the Tories and deliver the change Scotland needs.’ Your main rivals in Scotland are the SNP guys. But they aren’t exactly in touch with reality here. For one, all polls like this have a 3% margin of error and the SNP are down 2 points, with Labour up one, but the Tories are also down 2 points, so who is Labour gaining from here? I’d suggest it was the Tories, since the Scottish Greens are up 2 points themselves and given that they’re in a joint administration with the SNP right now, it’s likely just churn between those two parties. Labour are I would suggest, gaining from the Tories, the other point the Tories lost going to the Lib Dems, so this is just churn between establishment parties, lending weight to SNP MP Chris Law’s caustic comment at PMQs yesterday, which earning him a barking at by the eternally useless speaker Lindsay Hoyle when he referred to the Tories and Labour as two cheeks of the same a*se. But there is also the aspect of how this poll translates into seats and the brilliant Leftie Stats account has crunched the polling numbers and spat out the predictions as far as retaining control of the Scottish parliament in Holyrood is concerned and with 129 seats there up for grabs and 65 therefore needed for a majority, the SNP would retain 55 of them, losing 9, however the Scottish Greens would have 15, which is an increase of 7. Therefore with a net loss of just 2 seats in the SNP/Green coalition arrangement, they’d still retain control with a combined total of 70. Labour would gain 13 seats, putting them on 35, but it would be to no avail, and it would be pretty much exclusively at the expense of the Tories, who would lose 15 seats. So despite those headline figures and despite the SNP and Labour tying in that poll, Labour are eating into the Scottish Tory vote, not the SNP vote. If anything the Scottish Green partners of the SNP are eating into the SNP vote. This is also a pretty severe indictment of Labour.

►SOURCES:
https://www.thenational.scot/news/23770100.michael-shanks-accused-brexit-flip-flopping-deleting-tweet/
https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2023/09/05/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-polls-labour-lead-slashed/
https://pollingreport.uk/seats/S14000056
https://www.thenational.scot/news/23773244.scottish-labour-civil-war-rutherglen-leaked-emails/
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23772982.poll-scottish-labour-snp-tied-westminster-voting-intention/
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1699457959065985450?s=20

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