Has Russia's influence in Africa diminished? A former ambassador says yes

High among those was whether the continent could wean itself off the Russian gas it had thirstily guzzled for decades – and avoid being at the mercy of President Vladimir Putin should he cut that supply off in response to support for Ukraine.

For Europe, energy security has always been a trade-off: Cheap, imported energy comes with the risk of dependency on the countries from which it originates.

In the case of Russia and its natural gas, officials initially speculated that a long, cold winter in 2022-23 could force Europe to temper its punishment of Moscow. After all, developed countries like those in the European Union could not reasonably let their citizens go cold for the sake of Ukraine.

A combination of luck, planning and Europeans’ support for Ukraine, however, left the energy war – once considered Putin’s ace in the hole – redundant. Europe had an especially mild winter while governments and citizens made a concerted effort to use less gas.

That combination of a warm winter and lower gas consumption created a window for Europe to pivot from its Wandel durch Handel (Change through Trade) policy – which assumed that Russia would fall in line with Western values for cash.