Padres vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: More Offense Expected in Series Finale

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The San Diego Padres will try to salvage a split of a four-game series when they visit the Philadelphia Phillies one more time on Sunday afternoon.
The Padres have lost the last two games and continue to fall further out of playoff contention by the day. The Phillies are fighting for a playoff berth, but are currently one game out of a wild card position, making every game critical for Philadelphia.
Both teams have been hitting the ball well in this series, which could make life harder for the starters this afternoon. I break it all down in my MLB...

The San Diego Padres will try to salvage a split of a four-game series when they visit the Philadelphia Phillies one more time on Sunday afternoon.
The Padres have lost the last two games and continue to fall further out of playoff contention by the day. The Phillies are fighting for a playoff berth, but are currently one game out of a wild card position, making every game critical for Philadelphia.
Both teams have been hitting the ball well in this series, which could make life harder for the starters this afternoon. I break it all down in my MLB betting picks below. 
Padres vs Phillies odds Padres vs Phillies predictions
While neither team has lit up the world on offense this year, there’s no denying the amount of talent in these two lineups. Sure, the Phillies (4.55 runs per game) and Padres (4.48) are both scoring at a slightly below-average clip for MLB teams in 2023, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.
San Diego’s numbers are depressed by Petco Park, one of the worst offensive environments in all of baseball. In reality, Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and others are still elite weapons. It just doesn’t show up quite as well on the scoreboard when half of your games are played in a park which is awful for hitters.
That won’t be a problem on Sunday when the Padres visit Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies' home field is good for hitters all around but especially favors those who can hit for power. With five players in the San Diego lineup having double-digit homers already this year, you can expect the Padres to deliver.
As for the Phillies, they’ve been a slightly better offensive team at home, as you might expect. Philadelphia is scoring a more robust 4.70 runs per game at Citizens Bank. The Phillies lineup is also heating up in July, having scored an impressive 5.91 runs per game so far in July.
These trends have played out in the first three games of this series. Each of the first three has seen a total of at least 10 runs, and all three have cashed the Over. And while there’s a solid pitching matchup for Sunday afternoon’s finale, there are reasons to doubt that Seth Lugo and Zack Wheeler will do much to stop the onslaught of runs.
Wheeler hasn’t been bad in 2023, but his 4.05 ERA is surprisingly high considering he’s kept that number under 3.00 in each of the last three seasons. He’s especially struggled in his last three outings, giving up a total of 12 earned runs in just 16 1/3 innings pitched. He’s also given up a homer in each of those starts, a dangerous trend against a Padres lineup that can hit the long ball. 
Lugo has been solid in his return to a starting role with the Padres, posting a 3.39 ERA in 12 outings. However, he doesn’t tend to go far in games, averaging just 5.1 innings per start. He also benefits from the same Petco Park effects that the San Diego hitters deal with, making his numbers just a tad less impressive than they may seem.
Both pitchers may also struggle to stay in the game on a day when plenty of rain is expected, but there will be a concerted effort to get this game in if at all possible. That might mean long rain delays and unexpected pitching changes.
I see no reason to think that this will suddenly be a pitcher’s duel after we’ve watched these teams hit the ball all over the park in the first three games of this series. I’m taking the Over in this afternoon’s game....