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Astros vs Angels Predictions, Picks, Odds: One High-Scoring Game Deserves Another
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The Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros will lock horns on Sunday night to finish up a three-game series.
It was a thrilling contest last night and possibly the game of the year, ending in a 13-12 final, but that hardly tells the whole story.
The seventh saw the Angels erase a 9-3 deficit as the teams combined 11 total runs in that inning alone. The win snapped a six-game losing streak for the Halos as they continue to sort their next moves after Mike Trout's injury. For Houston, it was the team's fourth loss in its last six as...
The Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros will lock horns on Sunday night to finish up a three-game series.
It was a thrilling contest last night and possibly the game of the year, ending in a 13-12 final, but that hardly tells the whole story.
The seventh saw the Angels erase a 9-3 deficit as the teams combined 11 total runs in that inning alone. The win snapped a six-game losing streak for the Halos as they continue to sort their next moves after Mike Trout's injury. For Houston, it was the team's fourth loss in its last six as the Astros dropped three games behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Angels on Sunday, July 16th.
Astros vs Angels odds Astros vs Angels predictions
One aspect of this matchup is close to a complete unknown, at least in this writer's view.
That unknown is what we're going to get from Cristian Javier. We can theorize a few angles and explore why he's suddenly struggled (seemingly out of nowhere), but the truth is, it's hard to pinpoint. There was no apparent expected regression, yet Javier has failed to pitch through four innings in any of his last three starts. Because of this unknown, I'm going to completely separate it from my best bet and take what has the strongest data behind it. That's an Over of the Astros Team Total.
Lefty Tyler Anderson will take the mound for the Angels this evening, and put bluntly... he's been bad. He's inefficient, owning a walk rate that's near the bottom of the league. He gives up too many hits, allowing four or more in every start he's made this season. There's a likelihood that too many hits will get worse with an expected batting average that hovers around .300. Having the issue of giving up too much contact is not what you want when facing the Astros and that's why I like them to pile on the runs today.
Houston has the third-highest BABIP in baseball over the last 14 days. Though they haven't been good in this metric in the season overall, it was only a matter of time before that was remedied. There are too many talented hitters in this lineup and we've seen them finally turn the corner. I don't think it stops here. Beyond being more efficient with putting balls in play, the Astros feast against left-handed pitching. They have the eighth-best batting average in the league against them (a number that has increased recently), along with a Top 10 ISO rating. Anderson is catching Houston in the wrong place at the wrong time. Take the Over on the Astros Team Total tonight. This offense has started to hum lately, and I see no reason it doesn't continue with a favorable matchup. I projected this number at 5.5 but priced closer to +100. This is a number that the Astros have eclipsed in the first two games of this series, and they are well-positioned to do it a third straight. My best bet: Astros Team Total over 5.5 (+110 at DraftKings) Astros vs Angels same-game parlay Astros Team Total Over 5.5 (+100) Tyler Anderson Under 17.5 outs recorded (-120) Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases (+105) This is a pretty straightforward same-game parlay, given my above handicap.
While it may not be the most sexy, it gets the job done, and I still see value in it. The first two legs are highly correlated. This matchup and its timeframe is all bad for Anderson; thus, we expect two things to happen. The Astros will score runs and...
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