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Dodgers vs Mets Predictions, Picks, Odds: Grin and Polar Bear It
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The Los Angeles Dodgers will look to stay atop the NL West as they visit Citi Field following the All-Star Break for a three-game set with the New York Mets, who sit fourth in the NL East. Justin Verlander is a slight +100 home dog vs. Julio Urias in the MLB odds, with a total of 8.5.
With rain a serious issue, Urias making just his third start since returning from injury, and the Dodgers’ weakness in their middle-inning pitching, should bettors be backing the home dogs tonight?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and...
The Los Angeles Dodgers will look to stay atop the NL West as they visit Citi Field following the All-Star Break for a three-game set with the New York Mets, who sit fourth in the NL East. Justin Verlander is a slight +100 home dog vs. Julio Urias in the MLB odds, with a total of 8.5.
With rain a serious issue, Urias making just his third start since returning from injury, and the Dodgers’ weakness in their middle-inning pitching, should bettors be backing the home dogs tonight?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Mets for Friday, July 14.
Dodgers vs Mets odds Dodgers vs Mets predictions
The New York Mets’ offense hasn’t played to its potential through 90 games, and Pete Alonso is part of the problem, as he's hitting just .211. But the All-Star should put in a much better performance in the second half, especially against a lefty in Julio Urias who could give way to a weak L.A. middle relief stable tonight.
Alonso has 23% of the team’s home runs, 16% of the RBI, and an insanely low BABIP at .186. That last number is bound to positively regress, and could start today if the Mets can dig into the L.A. bullpen.
Urias hasn’t thrown more than 88 pitches in five straight starts, and that could lead to some innings for the middle relief of the Dodgers. That's good news for the New York hitters, as L.A. currently has five middle relievers with an ERA above 5.00. The projected rain could also bring in the L.A. bullpen earlier than normal.
Alonso’s Over 0.5 home runs at +430 is showing great +EV, but so is his O1.5 H+R+RBI at -110 at DraftKings. THE BAT is projecting 2.3 total H/R/RBI, where the -110 line is implying roughly 1.45.
Brighter days are coming for Alonso and that .211 average. A much better second half could start today with the help of some rain and a short-leashed starter in Urias. My best bet: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-110 at DraftKings) Dodgers vs Mets same-game parlay Alonso Over 1.5 total bases Mets moneyline Urias Over 4.5 hits I prefer to do my SGPs at bet365, as the hold is much better than most books, meaning bettors get a much better multiplier when adding correlated/noncorrelated plays.
I'm already backing Alonso, and considering 53% of his hits are going for extra bases, getting his Over 1.5 bases at +155 is solid in terms of value and price. His sub-.200 BABIP is very difficult to maintain.
I think the Mets on the moneyline is the right side, and the market agrees with me as it opened at +105. The middle-inning advantage belongs to the home side.
Urias is projected for 5.17 hits, per THE BAT, so it's a high win% play that correlates to the Mets moneyline play. It's a heavily correlated SGP, which is why I'm losing 300 points of true odds. But this same SGP is +400 at DraftKings. Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Dodgers vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers took a four-game winning streak into the break, and now are tied with the Diamondbacks for the division lead in the NL West. Tonight, they’ll open a three-game set vs. the 42-48 Mets, who took a dreadful 7-19 SU June record into a July where they went 6-2 SU before the break.
The Mets took two of three at Dodger Stadium in mid-April and opened...
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