Keir Giles - Why we should not Fear that Russian Defeat would be more Dangerous than Russian Victory

GUEST: Keir Giles - Senior consulting fellow with Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House.
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Calls to treat as legitimate the ‘security concerns’ raised by Russia, and to account for these in a future settlement of the war in Ukraine, disregard the fact that Moscow’s requirements are fundamentally incompatible with European security. Proponents of a settlement in the war on Ukraine often put forward the idea that Russian ‘security concerns’ must be taken into account in any such settlement, but also in broader revisions to the European security system.

These proposals echo the Russian information campaign over the past 30 years to persuade European publics that there can be ‘no security in Europe without Russia’. They provide false support to the argument that Western security policy after the collapse of the USSR unnecessarily encroached on core Russian interests by expanding NATO and forcing Moscow to militarize its foreign policy. In this telling, Russia was merely challenging what it viewed as an unjust European security order.
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SPEAKER:
Keir Giles is a senior consulting fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House. Keir has supported Chatham House in its Russia-focused research since 2013 and previously worked with the BBC Monitoring Service and the UK Defence Academy, where he wrote and advised on Russian military, defence, and security issues – including human factors influencing Russian security policy, Russian strategy and doctrine, the Russian view of cyber and information security, and Russia’s relations with its neighbours in northern Europe.

Keir is the author of multiple publications explaining the Russian approach to warfare. These include NATO’s Handbook of Russian Information Warfare; and Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West. He examined consistent patterns of Western success and failure in deterring Russian aggression. His most recent book is Russia’s War on Everybody: And What it Means for You, which describes the human impact of Russia’s campaigns to acquire power and influence around the world.
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BOOKS:
Russia's War on Everybody: And What it Means for You (2022)
Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West (2019)
The Turning Point for Russian Foreign Policy (2017)
The State of the NATO-Russia Reset (2011)
Potential Challenges to Public Order and Social Stability in the Russian Federation (2011)

PURCHASE A COPY:
https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/russias-war-on-everybody-9781350255081/
US - https://amzn.to/45tg0Aa
UK - https://amzn.to/44uEkQL
"Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West" - https://amzn.to/3LePv6K
"Russia's War on Everybody: And What it Means for You" - https://amzn.to/3aPtKxB
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LINKS:
https://twitter.com/KeirGiles
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/06/how-end-russias-war-ukraine
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SUMMARY:
Moscow’s war of reconquest against Ukraine has confirmed in the most brutal terms how Russia rejects the values underpinning European security – the same values agreed between Moscow and the West at the end of the Cold War. As a revisionist power, Russia has made itself the primary obstacle to peace and security in Europe and beyond. For stability to be restored and protected, it is essential that the outcome of the war in Ukraine leads to a situation in which – in addition to the expulsion of occupying forces – the exercise of Russian power is contained rather than encouraged. Over time, Russia’s leadership must also be persuaded to renounce its expansionist ambitions.

It’s now or never for Ukraine. A protracted or frozen conflict benefits Russia and hurts Ukraine, as does a ceasefire or negotiated settlement on Russia’s terms. If Ukraine is to avoid these outcomes and turn tenacious defence and incremental battlefield gains into outright victory, it needs far more ambitious international military assistance than it has received to date. This report presents the case for an immediate and decisive increase in such support, seeks to dispel overhyped concerns about provoking Russia, and counsels against accommodating Moscow’s demands.
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#keirgiles #chathamhouse #ukraine #ukrainewar #russia #zelensky #putin #propaganda
#war #disinformation #hybridwarfare #foreignpolicy #communism #sovietunion #postsoviet
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CHAPTERS:
00:00 Introduction
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