Mariners vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Slow Out of the Gates

Mariners vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Slow Out of the Gates Pleas Subscribe For Daily Sports Betting News

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The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners get an interdivisional four-game set going in Texas on Friday night. The series is the last for each before the All-Star break. 
Both of these teams enter tonight off a rest. The Mariners will enter this game as winners of four of the last five games. They've played much better recently, despite coming off a scoreless loss to the San Francisco Giants. Houston has started to look like, well, Houston. The Astros have won four straight games, including eight of their last 10. They are now just two games back from first in the...

The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners get an interdivisional four-game set going in Texas on Friday night. The series is the last for each before the All-Star break. 
Both of these teams enter tonight off a rest. The Mariners will enter this game as winners of four of the last five games. They've played much better recently, despite coming off a scoreless loss to the San Francisco Giants. Houston has started to look like, well, Houston. The Astros have won four straight games, including eight of their last 10. They are now just two games back from first in the AL West. 
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Mariners on Friday, July 7.
Mariners vs Astros odds Mariners vs Astros predictions
In what feels like an extremely even matchup, especially when you factor in the recent strong play of both teams, we will attack what we believe has the most substantial data behind it. And while it's not something I typically do, there's value in it here. We're backing both pitchers to get off to solid starts and taking no run scored in the first inning as our best bet.  Hunter Brown will take the mound for the Houston Astros, and he's coming off a start that saw him give up the most hits in a single game of his career (10). He escaped allowing just three earned runs. While that wasn't the most he's surrendered this season, it was among the worst he's pitched. With that in mind, he's a strong bounce-back candidate in this spot. 
In April, Brown had two starts where he allowed four earned runs. He followed each of those starts up with scoreless ones. He ended May with a five earned-run showing against the Minnesota Twins, and although he didn't respond with another scoreless start, he did start the game with a scoreless first frame. I'm backing the data more than anything, but I also like this matchup for Brown. He wants to induce soft contact and has one of baseball's highest ground ball rates. He'll get a lineup with three of the first four batters hitting into ground balls over 40% of the time. 
On the other side, we get Luis Castillo for the Seattle Mariners. What else can you say about him? He's in the middle of either the second-best or best season of his career. Even if things have been bumpier lately than usual and his team hasn't helped him much in the win/loss category, I fully expect him to continue that dominance tonight. I also expect that dominance to occur early. 
Castillo relies on overwhelming velocity and a four-seam fastball to get the job done. He will likely face Kyle Tucker, Yainer Diaz, and David Hensley out of the gate tonight. Tucker is the worry here, but if he can get past him, he'll see two players with a negative run value against the fastball. That should make the task of getting through the first inning without allowing a run a pretty straightforward one.
The raw data averaged out between these two teams for a no-run scored in the first inning is 50.5%. Factoring in my projections with that number, I've priced this at -165, giving us some decent value against the line.  My best bet: No run scored in first inning (-125 at bet365) Mariners vs Astros same-game parlay No run first inning Castillo Under 5.5 hits Castillo Over 18.5 outs There's a clear direction with tonight's same-game parlay. We're taking our best bet and adding some Castillo props. We're expecting a masterclass...