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Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Steady Freddie Lives Up to His Billing
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Prop bet #1: Garrett comes up short
Before the season started, if you told me to guess which team between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Miami Marlins was more than 10 games over .500 and which was 10 games under .500 by the time they met in early July, I would have gotten it wrong.
That’s because one season removed from another National League Central title, the Cardinals are trying to pull the rare first-to-worst trick and are 35-48 heading into tonight’s matchup with the Marlins. Miami is — surprisingly — putting on an impressive showing, sitting at 48-37...
Prop bet #1: Garrett comes up short
Before the season started, if you told me to guess which team between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Miami Marlins was more than 10 games over .500 and which was 10 games under .500 by the time they met in early July, I would have gotten it wrong.
That’s because one season removed from another National League Central title, the Cardinals are trying to pull the rare first-to-worst trick and are 35-48 heading into tonight’s matchup with the Marlins. Miami is — surprisingly — putting on an impressive showing, sitting at 48-37 and in second place in the NL East.
Despite the fact these teams are trending in opposite directions, I’m betting that it will be a short night for Marlins starter Braxton Garrett.
Garrett is having a solid season, pitching to a 4.15 expected ERA with an excellent strikeout-to-walk rate of 6.13. That said, the left-hander doesn’t have a long leash. He is averaging just over five innings per start, is facing just 20.75 batters, and throwing 77.13 pitches per start. He’s only thrown 90 pitches once this season.
And even though the Cardinals have been playing some bad baseball, that has mostly fallen on the poor pitching, as the lineup featuring Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado is still formidable against southpaws.
St. Louis ranks a respectable 16th in batting average, 15th in OPS, and 12th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers this season. The Cardinals also do a decent job of seeing a lot of pitches, ranking 10th in walk rate against lefties.
Like I said, that sounds like a shorter outing for Garrett. The lefty's outs recorded prop is on the board at 16.5 (5 2/3 innings needed to go Over), and he’s gone Over that number just five times in his 16 starts this season. Braxton Garrett prop: Under 16.5 outs recorded (-125) Prop bet #2: A muted Woo
Bryan Woo has given the Seattle Mariners’ rotation a nice boost. The rookie right-hander got roughed up in his first career start, but he’s looked fantastic since and will look to keep that going when he takes the mound on the road against San Francisco Giants.
The 23-year-old Woo is one of the Mariners' top pitching prospects and is already showing flashes of being a strikeout artist thanks to an electric fastball and a wide array of secondary pitches. In fact, he is striking out 33.3% of the batters he has faced in his short career.
And that’s the thing I want you to remember today. While Woo has been great for the most part, he is still working himself into the big leagues and only has 22 2/3 MLB innings under his belt at this point.
That’s just 4.53 innings per start. So, despite the success, it’s clear the Mariners aren’t going to push him too hard, too fast. If you take away Woo’s first start where he was roughed up and lasted just two innings, the right-hander has an average of 88.25 pitches and 20.5 batters faced per start.
To be fair, the competition of his last three starts hasn’t been the greatest. He faced the White Sox, the Nationals, and a Yankees lineup that had five hitters with a .221 average or worse.
The Giants should pose a bigger problem. San Francisco uses a swing-for-the-fences mentality, and while it leads to more strikeouts, it’s also working. The Giants rank 10th in OPS and ninth in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season.
Realistically, the strikeouts might mean Woo’s start is even shorter...
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