Rafi Farber on the monetary policies

Rafi Farber on the monetary policies

Deposits in the banking system continue to contract strongly. This is despite the fact that the Treasury's account at the Fed - which has sucked in over half a trillion dollars on net since June - is now spitting dolllars back out into the system. Not enough though, to reverse the trend of falling money supply we've seen since April 2022. We don't know where the Rubicon is beyond which the next financial crisis is finally triggered, but it's out there somewhere, and we're headed straight for it.

In the gold market, open interest in the futures market is at a 5 year low, and every time there has been a rally in open interest, there has also been a rally in price. It should be no different this time, and silver should follow.

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רפי אומר כי הזהב יוביל את המתכות המחירם למעלה ופריצתם קרובה מאד וזאת כי מספר החוזים קטן המחיר של הזהב עולה.זה מחזה שחוזר על עצמו כל פעם והוא מביא גרף מ2018.
בנושא המערכת הבנקאית הוא מראה כי הבריחה מחשבונות העו"ש בבנקים לרכישת אגחים לחודש T bills עם ריבית 5.4% מול המוצע על ידי הבנקים 0.42% תסתיים כאשר הפד במשבר הפיננסי האחרון  יוריד את הריבית מה שיגרום למכירת כל האגחים לפד תמורת מזומן  שיאבד מערכו במהירות בגלל עליית מחירים בעקבות ההיפוך במדיניות.מתי המשבר יפרוץ ? השאילה היא כמה דולרים נשארו במערכת שהודפסו ב2020 ומתי תיפסק הזרמתם במקום אלה שלחרו לפד,כי כמות המזומן שזורם במערכת הולכת  וקטנה.