Mets vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: Philadelphia Comes Out Hot

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The New York Mets will hope to end a run of six series without getting two wins in Sunday’s rubber match game against the Philadelphia Phillies. 
The Mets secured just their second win in even games on Saturday, beating the Phillies 4-2 behind a strong outing from Max Scherzer. But to win the series, they will need to hope Carlos Carrasco can end a run of poor starts. Even then it might not be enough, with the Philadelphia rolling Zack Wheeler onto the mound — whose strikeout rate is among the best of any starter in Major League Baseball.
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The New York Mets will hope to end a run of six series without getting two wins in Sunday’s rubber match game against the Philadelphia Phillies. 
The Mets secured just their second win in even games on Saturday, beating the Phillies 4-2 behind a strong outing from Max Scherzer. But to win the series, they will need to hope Carlos Carrasco can end a run of poor starts. Even then it might not be enough, with the Philadelphia rolling Zack Wheeler onto the mound — whose strikeout rate is among the best of any starter in Major League Baseball.
Find out why the pitching matchup will help you in the betting markets in my MLB picks for the Mets vs Phillies on Sunday, June 25.  
Mets vs Phillies odds Mets vs Phillies predictions
So far this season, the New York Mets rank fourth-worst in the bigs with a .277 BABIP, while their 43.9% groundball rate is the ninth-highest. Only seven teams have a higher ground ball to flyball ratio than their 1.21 rate this year. Why is that important? Because on Friday night, Taijuan Walker dominated New York, allowing just three hits and striking out five over six innings, and the Philadelphia Phillies led 5-1 when he exited the game.
The Mets will now face a pitcher who has been even better this season, and who is striking out more batters. Zack Wheeler has been outstanding and the month of June has solidified that, with a 3.13 ERA and a K/BB rate of 22/5 through four starts. Those numbers are more impressive when you consider the month started with him allowing seven earned over 3 2/3 IP against the Nationals.
How did he follow that start? By allowing a total of two runs over his next three starts, in which he gave up just 11 hits and struck out 19 batters. And in each of those three starts, Wheeler received three or more runs of support from his offense. 
I’ll be surprised if he gets only three runs on Sunday. Carlos Carrasco hasn’t just been bad this season, he’s been downright dreadful. He ranks in the 25th percentile or worse in exit velocity allowed and walk rate, and among the 10th percentile in xBA, xSLG, and strikeout rate.
Simply put, he’s getting hit hard, he’s getting hit often, and he’s not striking anybody out. His strikeout rate of 14.1% is nearly 10 percentage points lower than last season, and well below his career-worst mark.
That’s why my best bet on Sunday is for the Phillies to be the team who reaches four runs scored before the Mets. Philadelphia ranks third in MLB in BABIP with a .319 mark, and Carrasco’s BABIP against is .272 this year. Throw in a 4.30 BB/9 mark, and it’s easy to see why he’s given up 12 runs in his last three starts despite having just 12 2/3 IP. His last start of June isn’t going to go any better, as the Phillies should make easy work of him.  My best bet: Phillies race to four wins (-115 at DraftKings) Mets vs Phillies same-game parlay Phillies race to four runs Wheeler 6+ Ks Stott and Castellanos to record a hit We’ve already discussed why the Phillies will get to four runs first, and why Wheeler is very likely to have a strong day. He’s had five or more strikeouts in all but three of his 15 starts so far, and given Walker punched out five the other night, I fully expect Wheeler to top that. 
Philadelphia's defeat on Saturday wasn’t the fault of Nick Castellanos. The outfielder is making a late push for an All-Star appearance, and getting three hits in three ABs on Saturday...