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What factors contributed to the sell off in the US Treasury market?
The recent sell-off in the US fixed income market, specifically the US Treasury market, has been influenced by several factors. One of the key drivers is the increased budget deficit in the US, which has raised concerns about the fiscal situation in non-recessionary or non-crisis times.
Some of the deficit increase can be attributed to delayed tax receipts due to winter storms, but there are also questions about whether there has been genuine stealth fiscal easing in response to the deficit. The market has been uncertain about the exact breakdown between delayed tax receipts and actual fiscal easing.
In contrast, in September and October last year, the UK Gilt market faced a crisis due to fears of heavy extra gilt supply triggered by an ambitious pro-growth budget proposed by the new UK Prime Minister and Chancellor. The sudden fears of increased gilt supply led to a surge in yields, which was magnified by liabilities-driven investment (LDI) issues. This crisis resulted in liquidity problems for UK asset managers, Bank of England intervention, mass political resignations, and ultimately, a complete U-turn on the budget. It's worth noting that while there are some similarities in terms of concerns over increased government debt issuance, there are also important differences between the US and UK situations.
The US dollar has strengthened during the recent sell-off, which is different from what happened in the UK when Sterling slumped. Additionally, LDI played a much smaller role in the US Treasury market compared to the UK Gilt market, so it's unlikely to have the same snowball effect. Overall, while there are potential parallels to watch, the scale and dynamics of the US Treasury market differ from the UK Gilt market, making it a complex and uncertain situation to navigate.
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