Mets vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Brown's Inability to Miss Bats Bites Him

Mets vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Brown's Inability to Miss Bats Bites Him Pleas Subscribe For Daily Sports Betting News

Bet at MGM - IF YOUR BET LOSES, YOU’LL GET UP TO $1,000 BACK IN BONUS BETS - https://bit.ly/BetMGM1

Want To Place a Bet .. Download the Best Online Sportsbook! (IOS) http://bit.ly/453YUZG

Grab Barstool Sports Apparel @ The Official Barstool Store: https://bit.ly/barstool23

Bet On All The Big Games @ Xbet: https://bit.ly/xbetnow
First Deposit Bonus Up To $500 + $10 Casino Chip

Please Subscribe!
The New York Mets head to Texas to kick off an interleague series with the Houston Astros on Monday night at Minute Maid Park. 
Both teams could use a win in the worst way. The Mets have dropped four of their last five series and are just 3-11 across their last 14 games. 
The Astros are also down bad, losing nine of their last 12 — most recently a three-game sweep at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds.
Looking at MLB odds, the home team is the slight favorite on the moneyline, but I’ve picked out a different bet that...

The New York Mets head to Texas to kick off an interleague series with the Houston Astros on Monday night at Minute Maid Park. 
Both teams could use a win in the worst way. The Mets have dropped four of their last five series and are just 3-11 across their last 14 games. 
The Astros are also down bad, losing nine of their last 12 — most recently a three-game sweep at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds.
Looking at MLB odds, the home team is the slight favorite on the moneyline, but I’ve picked out a different bet that contains better value.
Check out which starting pitcher prop I’ve selected as my best bet for and my full MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Astros on Monday, June 19.
Mets vs Astros odds Mets vs Astros predictions
Monday’s best bet will be centered around Houston Astros rookie right-hande Hunter Brown and his strikeout prop, which is set at 5.5 across the board. 
Brown has certainly been impressive this season, sporting a 3.64 xERA and 3.30 FIP. He’s managed a 27.1% strikeout rate that has beaten most preseason projections, with the most bearish — THE BAT — calling for a 24.9% K-rate from the 24-year-old hurler. 
Interestingly enough, his in-season projections have moved even lower. THE BAT is still the most bearish, calling for a 23.2% K-rate the rest of the way, while ATC DC isn’t much higher at 24.5%. How can that be the case when Brown is notching a robust 9.92 strikeouts per nine innings? 
First off, Brown’s 10.9% swinging strike rate isn’t exactly anything special. For comparison’s sake, his pitching counterpart Max Scherzer’s swinging strike rate is 3.2 percentage points higher (14.1%) while his K-rate is actually 1.8 percentage points lower (25.3%). Swinging strike rate isn’t a perfect indicator of future strikeouts, but it’s definitely an underlying metric that I like to look at — and Brown’s points toward regression. 
There are other underlying numbers that indicate something similar. His Whiff% (45th percentile) and Chase Rate (44th percentile) are both below league average, and the spin rate on his pitches (45th percentile on his fastball, 50th percentile on his curve) is nothing out of the ordinary.
He faces a New York Mets lineup that has been great at avoiding strikeouts when facing right-handed pitching. They have the fourth-lowest K-rate against righties on the year at 20.5% and rank top-10 in walk rate (9.2%), so they like to grind out counts and make pitchers work.
Brown is hardly matchup-proof in the strikeout department. He’s recorded fewer than 5.5 punchouts in each of his last two outings, and both came against teams that don’t whiff against right-handers — the Nationals and the Blue Jays. 
He racked up 35 total Ks in his four outings before that, with the major caveat being that those came against the three most strikeout-prone lineups in MLB across the last 10 days — the Twins (30.8% K-rate), the Athletics twice (29.2%), and the White Sox (28.8%). 
If you exclude those teams, Brown has gone Under 5.5 Ks in each of his last four starts. It really just depends on which numbers you’d like to favor. For me, the matchups are screaming out loud and help explain why Brown has beaten his projections thus far. 
I’ll take Brown to go Under 5.5 strikeouts at slight plus money as I believe his numbers are inflated from getting some very favorable matchups. My best bet: Hunter Brown Under 5.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings) Mets vs...