Blue Jays vs Marlins Predictions, Picks, Odds: Berrios Rights the Ship

1 year ago
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The frustration of inconsistent play reached a fever pitch for the Toronto Blue Jays. In a season already full of maddening results, Sunday’s loss to the Texas Rangers may have been the worst. Toronto led yesterday’s rubber match 6-0, but thanks to a host of mistakes and careless play, Texas fought back, eventually earning an 11-7 victory. It was the Jays' sixth loss in their last nine games. The Blue Jays will do their best to put a tough series behind them when they open the week in Miami to take on the upstart Marlins, who sit in second place...

The frustration of inconsistent play reached a fever pitch for the Toronto Blue Jays. In a season already full of maddening results, Sunday’s loss to the Texas Rangers may have been the worst. Toronto led yesterday’s rubber match 6-0, but thanks to a host of mistakes and careless play, Texas fought back, eventually earning an 11-7 victory. It was the Jays' sixth loss in their last nine games. The Blue Jays will do their best to put a tough series behind them when they open the week in Miami to take on the upstart Marlins, who sit in second place in the National League East. Can a resurgent Jose Berrios get Toronto back on track as road favorites? I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet in MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Marlins.  Blue Jays vs Marlins odds Blue Jays vs Marlins predictions
Despite the rain cloud hanging over this Toronto Blue Jays season, one of the bright spots has undoubtedly been the turnaround of starting pitcher Jose Berrios.
The Blue Jays right-hander was coming off the worst season of his career, recording as 5.11 expected ERA while surrendering a .275 expected batting average, and a .466 expected slugging percentage. All of those numbers ranked in the Bottom 10% in MLB while also having the lowest strikeout rate since his rookie season.
After a slow start to 2023, many were wondering if we were in for more of the same. But Berrios has certainly changed that narrative. The right-hander has been controlling his sinker much better, allowing him to set hitters up with a solid slurve. As a result, he has a 2.27 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .217 batting average over his last 12 starts.
His latest was arguably the most impressive, shutting out a strong Baltimore Orioles lineup on just three hits over 7 2/3 innings. He is also giving the Jays great length, averaging more than six innings per start.
Now, his strikeout numbers are probably not where he would like at just 7.9 per nine innings, but that length means there is still some value in what is a low strikeout total of 4.5 against the Marlins.
Berrios is striking out 21.7% of batters and is facing nearly 25 batters per start, working out to roughly 5.5 strikeouts per start. The Marlins are a solid team when it comes to keeping the strikeouts down with the 11th-lowest K-rate when facing right-handed batters (22.4%).
And despite their success this season, the Fish rank 23rd in OPS and 22nd in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season.  
That means another lengthy start for Berrios should be in the cards. I like him to work deep into another ball game and rack up at least five strikeouts, something he's accomplished in nine of his 14 outings. My best bet: Jose Berrios Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120 at SIA) Blue Jays vs Marlins same-game parlay Jose Berrios Over 4.5 Ks Berrios Over 17.5 outs Whit Merrifield Over 0.5 SB We start this same-game parlay with Berrios to go Over his strikeout number. And part of the reason I like the Over on his strikeout total is that I also like him to pitch deep into this ball game, so adding the Over on his outs recorded prop at 17.5 seems like a no-brainer.
Berrios has been a very reliable innings eater for the Blue Jays since the end of April, completing at least 5 1/3 innings in 11 consecutive starts and is averaging a touch over 6 1/3 innings pitched over that span. He has completed at least six innings in...

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