An X-Flare Player Grows & A Solar Storm Heads for Earth | Solar Storm Forecast 09.30.2021

This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University:
https://www.millersville.edu/swen
This week our star ups the stakes with several new big-flare players, including a fast growing region (2880) that looks to be an X-flare player as well. NOAA is giving the region about a 5% change of firing off an X-class flare over the next few days. We will see if that risk rises as we follow its explosive growth over this next week. The nice thing is this new activity has bumped the solar flux back up into the triple digits again (I told you it was coming)! Sure enough, we are sitting at 100 right now and could see 115 by the end of the week. This means amateur radio on Earth's dayside is back into the good range so enjoy. In addition we have an Earth-directed solar storm on it's way to Earth. "The Big Three" agencies (namely NOAA, NASA, and the MetOffice) disagree slightly on when and how the solar storm will hit, but it should be sometime between late September 30 and mid-day October 1. As such, aurora photographers should stay vigilant as we could get aurora, even down to mid-latitudes! Learn the details of the coming solar storm, watch the new X-flare player grow over the past few days, catch up on aurora photos from recent solar storms, and see what else our Sun has in store!
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For a more in-depth look at the data and images in this video see the links in my other forecasts. This week I need to save the space for credits to the field reporter photos highlighted this week.

Aurora Photography:
I Need Space, Tromsø, Norway:
https://twitter.com/INSVideos/status/1434091174348853248
Night Light Films, Ringvassøya, Norway:
https://twitter.com/NightLights_AM/status/1442685183585656839
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-48sEgFC8j4
Dmitry, Murmansk, Russia:
https://spaceweathergallery.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=178023
John GM7PBB, Hebrides, Scotland:
https://twitter.com/GM7PBB/status/1439006761705480197
Scott Cogan, Lairg, Scotland:
https://twitter.com/cogie_s/status/1439605922003931147
Friðrik Hreinsson, Iceland:
https://twitter.com/Blackprojects/status/1442981629304131585
Mike MacLellan, Bonaventure Québec, Canada:
https://twitter.com/PeakToSailPhoto/status/1439377628356620292
Fergies Photos, Manitoba, Canada:
https://twitter.com/FergiesPhotos/status/1442978976415326209
Jeanine - Northern Escape Photography, Saskatchewan, Canada:
https://twitter.com/jeanineh_/status/1438270228736188419
Notanee Bourassa, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada:
https://twitter.com/DJHardwired/status/1437500748963749900
Tree Tanner, Alix, Alberta, Canada:
https://twitter.com/treetanner/status/1438938114299346947
Maki Yanagimachi, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand:
https://twitter.com/makiyanagimachi/status/1443349959206707204