Benjamin Cowen: Brace For What's About To Happen - Crypto Update

Even if Bitcoin doesn't put in a new low, that doesn't mean the altcoin market is immune to putting any lows. We talked about that back then as well.

We have a situation here where Bitcoin is at the same price (more or less) that it was at back in April. Between that time and now, many altcoins put in new lows and the altcoin market dropped from that time by almost 30 percent.

I'm still very negative about the altcoin market mainly because I think they're bleeding against Bitcoin. Everyone's going to be bullish on them again because they're up 16-17%, but is it just a lower high? I still think they're bleeding to bitcoin.

Look at this chart for a second. We know that crypto is extremely cyclical. You have your Bitcoin season, your altcoin season, your bear markets, your bull markets, your pre-Halving years. Every season imaginable.

One of the things we've seen here is that you go from periods where all coins are overvalued against Bitcoin, where they basically reach parity, where the altcoin market cap equals Bitcoin market cap. But then eventually it fades down here where the altcoin market is only worth about 25% of what Bitcoin is worth.

Then it comes back up to parity and then it comes back down to (I'm guessing) about 25%. When I talk about the altcoin market, I'm referring to everything besides Bitcoin and Ethereum. I think Ethereum has proven itself as a blue chip and I think it will stand the test of time. I still think it's bleeding against Bitcoin at this phase, but look at this chart.

Since April, the altcoin market dropped another 20 against Bitcoin. I'm guessing that we're likely going to eventually see the altcoin market drop another 40 against Bitcoin.

Where people could get into trouble is that nothing goes down in a straight line. You can have bounces. We've had a bounce at this level a couple of times in the past. It also acted as resistance a couple of times in the past. So could the altcoin market bounce here temporarily like it did back over here? Sure, that's certainly possible.

But just remember, nothing goes up in a linear fashion or goes down in a linear fashion. I'm guessing that eventually the altcoin market will bleed another 40 against Bitcoin.

The last time we made a video, the dominance was at 47. Right now it's at 51. The video before that, it was at 44. It's not going to go up in a straight line. It goes up, consolidates, bounces off the 100-day moving average.

We've seen it do that several times. It bounced at 41, then at 43, then at 47. It just does this over and over and over again. The altcoin market systematically bleeds back to Bitcoin.

People don't realize it because everything feels good right now because Bitcoin is at 31k. But look at Cardano. It's 29 cents. It was almost 50 cents back in April. But people still feel good about it because they only care about what happened over the last two weeks, not what happened over the last two months.

That's what I think gets people into trouble with the altcoin market. Look at Polkadot. It's just putting in a series of lower highs. Look at Avalanche. It's just another series of lower highs.

The market takes a long time to play out. I'm guessing that the altcoin market might be done bleeding against Bitcoin sometime in the next few months. It's not like this narrative is going to go on forever.

I'm actually not a Bitcoin Maxi, although I do see that criticism out there quite a lot. It's more so recognizing that hey, we're in the phase where dominance of Bitcoin goes up. So for the most part, Bitcoin will likely outperform a majority of the altcoin market.

I understand that there's always some altcoins that outperform Bitcoin, especially the smaller micro caps that are just created. But yes, some of these smaller market cap coins can outperform Bitcoin over some of these shorter time frames.

I've been pretty honest about this for over a year now that what I'm looking for with ADA is 400 satoshis. That's where it went last cycle and that's where it was before that.

My speculation back in April was that we would drop to around 800 satoshis this summer.