BIG trouble in the BOND markets ~ NO NATO membership for UKRAINE (yet)

Government bond markets worldwide, including Europe, the United States, and Australia, are facing a significant drop as the anticipation of long-lasting higher interest rates leads to a sell-off in long-dated bonds. Two-year borrowing costs in Germany and Britain reached their highest levels since 2008, with U.S. equivalents hitting 2007 highs, and Australian bond yields soared to a decade high.

The bond market's latest setback is attributed to investor interpretation of recent strong U.S. services sector data and hawkish Federal Reserve meeting minutes as indicators that the Fed, along with other central banks, may need to maintain higher rates longer than anticipated. This turbulence comes despite unimpressive U.S. non-farm payrolls data, which only somewhat dampened the market's inflationary concerns.

This scenario has prompted a reassessment of "higher for longer" rates' implications for long-term borrowing costs, marking a potentially challenging period ahead for bond investors.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's plea for a clear timetable for NATO membership was denied by alliance leaders on July 12, 2023, amid ongoing conflict with Russia. Despite NATO's promise to invite Ukraine when "conditions are met" and assurance that "Ukraine's future is in NATO," Zelensky expressed disappointment over the lack of a concrete timeline and feared this ambiguity would allow Russia to negotiate or even exploit Ukraine's NATO membership.

Amidst this, Moscow claimed advancement on the eastern front, which if confirmed, would bring them closer to the strategic rail hub of Lyman. Meanwhile, Western nations pledged broader military support for Ukraine, with Germany offering significant military assistance and France, Britain, Denmark, and the Netherlands providing equipment and training. However, both the US and Germany remained hesitant about offering Kyiv membership while the war persists, fearing it might pull NATO into direct conflict.

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