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White Sox vs Dodgers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Grove Finds Great Matchup Against ChiSox
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The Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers will look to wrap up a three-game series tonight in a decisive matchup.
The pair have split the two games of the series. Last night, the White Sox won comfortably when the Dodgers' bullpen stumbled down the stretch. Each of these teams is looking up in their respective divisions, though their scenarios are different. The Dodgers sit three games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West. In comparison, the White Sox are further (5.5 games) behind the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central.
Read on for my best bet and full...
The Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers will look to wrap up a three-game series tonight in a decisive matchup.
The pair have split the two games of the series. Last night, the White Sox won comfortably when the Dodgers' bullpen stumbled down the stretch. Each of these teams is looking up in their respective divisions, though their scenarios are different. The Dodgers sit three games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West. In comparison, the White Sox are further (5.5 games) behind the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. White Sox on Thursday, June 15.
White Sox vs Dodgers odds White Sox vs Dodgers predictions
I'm rolling with the Dodgers as my best bet tonight in a rare instance of me taking on some juice in a baseball game. The market prices vary, but I got -140 at DraftKings, the best price at publication. It also was a decisive edge on my number of -184, and easily the best bet on the board for this game because of that. White Sox starter Dylan Cease will grab the attention in this matchup, for better or worse. But what stuck out to me was the pitcher on the other side and one single number. The pitcher is Michael Grove for the Dodgers, and the number is .193 — the batting average that White Sox batters have against power pitchers this season. They'll see one tonight in Grove, who delivers the four-seam fastball nearly 44% of the time with an average velocity of 95 mph.
I like how this matchup shakes out for Grove. His atrocious ERA has been due to bad luck (see an expected ERA of around 4.00) and his issues with the fastball. On that pitch, batters have hit over .350 with an expected batting average virtually identical to it.
Not only do the White Sox struggle against power pitchers, but they also struggle against the fastball in general, and that's a welcomed sight for Grove, who doesn't see those teams that often. The lineup that Chicago will roll out tonight will have just two players batting at or above league average. This should signal a chance for Grove to have some more comfortable innings. We also have the angle of some looming positive regression that has a good chance of occurring tonight.
On the other side, Cease is going through some more extensive struggles, and no team in baseball can highlight those struggles more than the Dodgers.
Cease has a walk rate in the Bottom 25% of baseball. As we've heavily documented, the Dodgers have the most patient hitters in baseball and rank first in walk rate.
Along with the free pass issue, Cease has struggled with hard-hit balls at a rate in the Bottom 10% of baseball. The Dodgers aren't the team you want to see when that's an issue. L.A. is one of the two teams in baseball that sit in the Top 3 of both hard-hit and barrel rates. The only team that comes close to the Dodgers in such metrics that Cease has faced is the Tampa Bay Rays. He met them twice this season and failed to reach five innings in each instance.
Grab the Dodgers tonight. We're getting a rare discount on them with some significant value. My best bet: Dodgers moneyline (-140 at DraftKings) White Sox vs Dodgers same-game parlay Michael Grove to record a win Dylan Cease Under 16.5 outs Luis Robert has over 1.5 bases The Dodgers moneyline is essentially anchoring our same-game parlay, but we'r...
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