Blue Jays vs Orioles Predictions, Picks, Odds: Buying Low on Berrios in Baltimore

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The Toronto Blue Jays were unable to shake their American League East demons, falling 11-6 to the Baltimore Orioles in the opener of their three-game series at Camden Yards. It was the Blue Jays 14th loss in their last 16 tries against division foes.
The Jays will try to change their fortunes when they hand the ball to the resurgent Jose Berrios in Wednesday night’s Game 2. Berrios’ recent form has Toronto as a slight road favorite. 
Can he come through for his team and end this ugly trend? Or will the O’s and their talented young offense prove too...

The Toronto Blue Jays were unable to shake their American League East demons, falling 11-6 to the Baltimore Orioles in the opener of their three-game series at Camden Yards. It was the Blue Jays 14th loss in their last 16 tries against division foes.
The Jays will try to change their fortunes when they hand the ball to the resurgent Jose Berrios in Wednesday night’s Game 2. Berrios’ recent form has Toronto as a slight road favorite. 
Can he come through for his team and end this ugly trend? Or will the O’s and their talented young offense prove too much once again, and win their fifth straight game vs. the Jays this season?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet plus a same-game parlay in our MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Orioles on June 15.
Blue Jays vs Orioles odds Blue Jays vs Orioles predictions
The Jose Berrios turnaround has been impressive to watch. The right-hander is doing a much better job of keeping his sinker out of the center of the plate and has effectively used his slurve to create soft contact and as a wipeout pitch.
His last 11 starts have been particularly impressive. Berrios is pitching to a 2.53 ERA and limiting opponents to a .227 batting average over that stretch. 
Berrios is also striking out 8.15 batters per nine innings and has a K-rate of 22% this season. That’s probably still not where he would like it, but it’s a vast improvement over last year. Those numbers combined with a tough matchup with the Orioles means we’re getting a very low strikeout total of 4.5 for this game.
However, I think that number is undervaluing Berrios' strikeout ability a bit. While the Orioles have one of the better lineups in the American League, they have been a little more free-swinging this month. Baltimore has the ninth highest K-rate (24.7%) since the start of June. The O’s will also be without two key pieces in Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle. 
And while Berrios’ strikeouts per nine might not be the highest out there, he makes up for it by pitching deep into games. He is averaging nearly six innings per start and has pitched at least six innings in seven of his last 10 starts. That means more opportunities for strikeouts. 
Berrios has recorded five or more strikeouts in nine of his 13 starts this season. I’m not exactly sure how this start will go for Berrios, but I’m betting he racks up the punchouts either way. My best bet: Berrios Over 4.5 strikeouts (-110 at SIA) Blue Jays vs Orioles same-game parlay Berrios Over 4.5 strikeouts Frazier Over 0.5 hits Springer Over 1.5 total bases For tonight’s same-game parlay, we start with Berrios to go Over his strikeouts prop at 4.5. Even though Baltimore will pose a tough matchup, there are definitely some spots in the lineup where he can have success. Namely, against Adam Frazier. Frazier is putting up some solid power numbers for the Orioles this season, but is still just hitting for a .236 average and has struggled in his career vs. Berrios. Frazier is hitless with two strikeouts in nine plate appearances against the Blue Jays’ right-hander. That’s good for a .158 xSlugging %. So, I’m adding Frazier Under 0.5 hits to the parlay.
To close out this SGP, I’m going with a Blue Jays hitter to find some success against Orioles starter Kyle Bradish. 
That hitter is George Springer. The Blue Jays’ leadoff man is quietly on a heater. Springer is hitti...