Ranked Choice Voting Still Sucks Part II

Ranked Choice Voting Still Sucks Part II *this is a follow-up to https://rumble.com/v2vm1mo-joe-bidens-sham-victory-or-why-ranked-choice-voting-sucks.html *

Now let us run the deficit between first & second place pertaining to POTUS races from 1912 to the present for all races *AND* all races where nobody got 50% of the vote plus one. Pertaining to the second part, I will be excluding races where the popular vote winner did not win the Electoral College (2016, 2000).

Senate races are a different animal, not subject to the Electoral College & one race in one state, whereas a POTUS race is in 51 (or 50 or 48) different jurisdictions.

Average margin of victory in POTUS races 1912 to present, popular vote winner from 2nd place (14.44, 3.14, 26.23, 25.21, 17.43, 17.76, 24.26, 9.95, 7.5, 4.48, 10.76, 15.4, 0.17, 22.58, 0.7, 23.15, 2.07, 9.74, 18.21, 7.72, 5.56, 8.51, 2.47, 7.26, 3.86, 4.46). The average of those = 11.27% & the Population Standard Deviation = 8.108%

Here are the deficits between first & second place (14.44, 3.14, 4.48, 0.17, 0.7, 5.56, 8.51) where the winner of the popular vote also failed to breach the 50% plus one vote mark (excluding 2000 & 2016). The average of those = 5.285% & the Population Standard Deviation = 4.578%

Comparing those two sets of data, the contests (again, excluding 2016 & 2000) where the winner of the Electoral College did not breach 50% plus one, those races had deficits between 1st & 2nd that were within 1SD of *all POTUS contests* since 1912. Not an outlier.

If we take all POTUS races since 1912 & exclude the ones where (along w/ 2000 & 2016) the popular vote winner did *NOT* cross the 50% plus one threshold (26.23, 25.21, 17.43, 17.76, 24.26, 9.95, 7.5, 10.76, 15.4, 22.58, 23.15, 2.07, 9.74, 18.21, 7.72, 2.47, 7.26, 3.86, 4.46) we have an average of 13.474% & the Population Standard Deviation = 8.011%.

Separating those two sets of data, we do (13.474 minus 8.011 = 5.463%) have an outlier though & going into it I did not think it would be, but I was wrong.

Now let us look at the winner of the popular vote (and I will include *ALL* elections from 1912 to present) & see how that stacks up against those other elections where the winner of the Electoral College won enough EVs in states where he *DID NOT* have a popular voter majority in that state & compare that to all POTUS elections from 1912 to present.

All POTUS elections since 1912, national popular vote average % for the person who won the electoral college (41.83, 49.25, 49.55, 49.72, 43.42, 50.08, 50.75, 43.01, 49.23, 47.87, 45.93, 51.26, 60.35, 54.03, 58.22, 57.41, 60.8, 54.72, 53.39, 55.14, 57.37, 61.05, 60.67, 58.77, 53.37, 50.73, 52.86, 51.01) = 52.563% Population Standard Deviation = 5.38%

POTUS elections since 1912 where the winner of the Electoral College would not have won it if states where that person did not attain 50% plus one were excluded: 1912, 1916, 1948, 1960, 1968, 1976, 1980, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2016 & 2020. The average popular vote % of those candidates was (41.83, 49.25, 49.55, 49.72, 43.42, 50.08, 50.75, 43.01, 49.23, 47.87, 45.93, 51.26) was 47.658%. That is barely within 1SD (52.563 minus 5.38 = 47.183%) of the average of all POTUS elections 1912-2020.

Again, just because that magical 50% mark is not obtained by someone, “So what?” & I can add the data above indicates those elections are not an outlier.

Again, I understand POTUS elections are a different animal than Senate races, but if we are to haggle about 50% plus one, who is going to argue that Ronald Reagan did not have a seismic victory in 1980? He got a lot of EVs in states where nobody hit 50%. So did Jimmy Carter. SO WHAT!

Was Bill Clinton’s win in 1992 tainted because of that? Bill Clinton was POTUS twice because he received beaucoup EVs in states where nobody sniffed a popular vote majority. SO WHAT!

That means Democrats & Republicans need to do better & so do third parties because the only thing they are spoiling are the chances of the Republicans & Democrats to hit 50% plus one.

I am really closing this now. If your state has not officially kiboshed any push for Ranked Choice Voting, write your elected officials & get them to do it in the next session. If Libertarian, Green or any “other” party voters want to be spoilers, let them “throw their vote away” in the general election, which may simply result in the winner being south of 50% of the vote.

Or Republicans & Democrats need to get better at convincing those folks to join their bloc. They made their decision, they do not like Republicans or Democrats, they should not be allowed to decide the election (essentially, after it has already been decided) by voting for someone else who is not their preference.

Pretending to read the minds of voters is one of the calling cards of RCV, “they must be holding their noses.” Maybe everyone is holding their noses? If they are holding their noses, so what? Maybe more folks need to get involved in primaries (and less in general elections), so we can have more Rand Paul in the GOP & less Mitch McConnell.

I hope you find the above data interesting & helpful, should you run into one of these schmucks that's pushing RCV & open primaries. Mr. Chairman, I FINALLY Yield Back!